Posted on 05/08/2010 7:58:43 AM PDT by Slyscribe
That Republican wave is looking bigger: 63 Democrat-held House seats are now toss-ups, likely GOP pickups or lean Democrat. That’s based on average of estimates from the Cook Political Report, the Rothenberg Political Report, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Real Clear Politics. When IBD looked at that average about a month ago, it was 48. By some estimates, the Republican potential target list is far bigger. National Review’s Jim Geraghty recently released his list of 99 Democrat seats in play.
(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.investors.com ...
You’re leaving out the most important component, Independents, they are leaning heavily to the Repub party. That’s how McDonnell, Christie and Scott Brown all won, huge Independent support. The Dems won their majorities in Congress in 2006 because of this same huge Independent support. Obama won the WH in 2008 because of huge Independent, and some Repub, support. Now these same Independents will help deliver Repub majorities in the House and Senate this November.
I disagree, moose.
The poll numbers I listed are for ALL voters.
Those poll numbers include Independents.
It's really the Senate that we need....
You are both correct, but victory in 2010 will depend
on us getting out the vote. Recent prim. election
turnout was poor (approx. 10-12%) in NC.
Oh she will.
Heck, Bin Laden would get elected in San Francisco with a “D” after his name. They are that insane in that city.
“Still, 43% of voters not affiliated with either major party now prefer the Republican candidate, while 21% like the Democrat”
The above is from the latest Rasmussen generic poll, it’s exactly why the Repubs are leading by 7 points. Most importantly, this is a poll of “Likely Voters,” not “Adults” like Gallup.
the problem is that this is all smoke and mirrors. On December 10 of this year Obama will be presented with the reapportionment numbers by the Census run by his own Rahm Emmanuel. I suspect those numbers will show a decided shift in population to blue states and with it congressional seats and electoral college votes. Will we contest those numbers? I somehow doubt the GOP has the stomach for a fight. As we speak, certain census workers hired via "community organizations" in certain communities are deliberately doing everything they can to inflate numbers. I know this for a fact. I have been told by various people with direct knowledge that census takers are telling respondents to claim more than the actual number of members in their families because that way their communities will receive more federal aid and that it is incumbent on them to show loyalty to their communities to lie on the census because "everyone else" is doing it and if they don't their benefits and aid will be cut etc.. If my hunch is right, they are setting us up for 2010 for both massive voter fraud and a major shift in congressional seats to districts where they only need a few voters to show up. It will also give them control of the electoral college. We need to redo the census and have an independent agency run it or we will have the nightmare of our lives ahead of us.
I think you are blowng smoke.
“Yet, voters still approve of Obama by 48%-45%.”
At the same time, only 39% would vote to reelect 0bama president if the polls were held today, according to a poll from just yesterday. Any president with an approval of less than 50% during midterms elections, almost always has their party lose heavily in the midterms.
“Yet, in “Generic Congressional Vote” polls, Republicans lead Democrats by 43.1%-42.4% - less than one percent”
I wouldn't worry about RCP generic congressional polls, which includes figures from firms like Gallup. Back in 1994, Gallup had the Democrats ahead in the generic congressional polls, just before the GOP slaughtered the Democrats in the 1994 elections. The generic poll you gotta watch is the much more accurate Rasmussen generic poll. That has the GOP ahead of the Democrats by a massive 7 points.
“America has changed.
Our politics have steadily moved leftward for 22 years”
/sarc Yeah..that's why we won in true blue NJ and MA, and won in VA as well, all three states won handily by 0bama just a year ago.
“And massive legal immigration, which favors the Democratic Party by 2-1, has fundamentally altered the raw political numbers”
More states are bringing in laws (with teeth) to prevent illegals from voting, and we still won in Democratic Party strongholds, NJ and MA, despite illegals, SEUI, ACORN and whatever.
“At best, however, our gains will equal the historical average for mid-term elections.”
The Democrats are going to be hit by a tsunami in November, that will make 1994 look like a picnic.
You are wrong. Democrats had a bigger edge going into 1994 as far as voter preference. This election is going to be disasterous for them and in no way a typical midterm. Anyone who believes this is a typical midterm is just not looking at historical polling versus the results. The best poll I’ve seen is the one showing only 39% would vote for Obama again. That is the best indicator of how bad it is for Democrats. A president that started out at 60% approval and earned 52% of the vote has seen his support evaporate especially among independents.
Unless the Democrats can get some freebies out to their base of Moochers they will sit home in November.
Unfortunately I as an independent volunteer worked to elect self centered politicians in suffolk county,LI. Basically said to my clubs leader, since I was the vp of the club that this had to stop. They didn’t care, so neither did I. They’ve asked me to come back and I said I would if they changed and select real republicans. They haven’t. I have hounded my democrat congressman. Wish I could do more, but the machine and poor candidates have been the problem.
I think a lot of those seats are in play for the Tea Party- not for RINOs.
bfl
“...seats are now toss-ups, likely GOP pickups or lean Democrat...”
Huh? Doesn’t that cover all possibilities of the election? How is that likely Republican as implied?
22 years?
Try more like 72.
I'm on the local county committee,and we do not endorse anyone in the primary.
We will if we stay focused and keep the Tea Partiers fired up.
This Congress is a radical Leftwing one, supporting a radical Leftwing President.
The American People are going to vote to put a check on him and punish them.
“Please, Lord, let it be so!” from your key strokes to God’s ears, and the reversal of obamacare!
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