Posted on 03/18/2010 7:11:08 AM PDT by GOPGuide
Longtime incumbent John McCain now leads conservative challenger J.D. Hayworth by just seven points in Arizona’s hotly contested Republican Senate Primary race.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely Arizona GOP Primary voters shows McCain ahead 48% to 41%. Three percent (3%) favor another candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided.
Following the announcement that Sarah Palin would campaign for his reelection, McCain opened up a 53% to 31% lead over Hayworth in January. The two men were in a near tie in November.
But now Hayworth, a former congressman turned popular local talk radio host, is a formal candidate, and anti-immigration activist Chris Simcox has quit the race and endorsed him. For McCain, the new numbers also show him dropping again below 50%, and incumbents who poll less than 50% at this stage of a campaign are considered potentially vulnerable.
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
Hayworth leads by seven points among male primary voters but trails by 23 among women. He edges McCain by five points among party conservatives, but the incumbent holds substantial margins among Republicans who identify themselves as moderates or liberals.
Hayworth has been attacking McCain as not conservative enough, but the senator, who just two years ago was the Republican presidential nominee, has been countering with a number of heavyweight endorsements from the right. Palin will attend a McCain rally in Tucson later this month.
Polling last fall found that 61% of Arizona Republicans felt McCain was out of touch with the party base.
Arizona Republicans will choose their Senate nominee in an August 24 primary, and for now that’s the major battle of this Senate cycle since no major Democrat has announced yet as a candidate.
Twenty-nine percent (29%) of GOP Primary voters have a very favorable opinion of McCain, who has represented Arizona in the Senate since 1987. Fifteen percent (15%) view him very unfavorably.
Hayworth is seen very favorably by 25% and very unfavorably by 15%.
While both candidates are well-known among likely primary voters, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers at this point in a campaign.
Just 11% of Republicans in the state approve of the job President Obama is doing, while 88% disapprove.
Forty-seven percent (47%) approve of the performance of the state’s GOP governor, Jan Brewer, who is in a tough reelection battle this year. Fifty percent (50%) disapprove. These findings include six percent (6%) who strongly approve of how she’s doing her job and 17% who strongly disapprove.
In 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected nationally that Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama won 53% to 46%. Four years earlier, Rasmussen Reports projected the national vote totals for both George W. Bush and John Kerry within half-a-percentage-point.
In Arizona during the 2008 campaign, Rasmussen Reports polling showed McCain winning the state by a 51% to 45% margin. McCain defeated Obama 54% to 45%. In the 2006 Arizona governor’s race, Rasmussen polling showed Janet Napolitano defeating Len Munsil 58% to 37%. Napolitano won 63% to 35%. In the 2006 race for U.S. Senate, Rasmussen polling showed Jon Kyl leading Jim Pederson by nine, 51% to 42%. Kyl won by nine, 53% to 44%.
See all Rasmussen Reports 2008 state results for president, Senate and governor. See 2006 results for Senate and governor. See 2004 state results for president.
Again, there have always been anti-Reagan malcontents and revisionists. Just not as “many” as you think. Besides, this is 2010, not 1966 or 1980. However, 20/20 hindsight is no replacement for the truth.
NOW is the time! Give give give!!!
http://www.jdforsenate.com/
We can do this! We can unseat RINO McVain!
The women in this polling (and Palin herself), should really think about how McCain treated his V.P.
You don’t “bring her to the dance” because she can help you dance and then dump her after the last song is played.
The loyalty B.S. is an enabler to a man that does not deserve to be in the Senate.
That is so true! Almost every day I get sick listening to one of McCain's lying scummy ads libeling JD and I have yet to hear ONE of JD's. I read about one, but I didn't hear it. Yet JD is closing the gap rapidly. When he is able to really start in with his own ads, McCain is GONE!!!
I have a question. This week there has been one of the most transformative problems in Washington in this country’s history. Where is McCain? Why isn’t he back there fighting this fight?
“NOW, they are not honoring a man for his service, they are selecting a legislator and political leader.
And as a legislator and political leader, John McCain is a Benedict Arnold to the Republican Party, to Arizona and to his Country.”
Amen!!
“McCain, on economic principle”
You lost me there. The guy has no principles. McCain wants to give SS benefits to illegals who never paid a dime into it. Spare me on McCain’s fiscal conservatism.
“McCain is strong on national security.”
Sorry, McCain is for closing Gitmo, is against enhanced interrogations, and is for having our borders open to drug dealers, human smugglers, and terrorists, just like BHO!
That is not being strong on national security.
Finally some news we can cheer about today.
I want to know if I could vote for McNoodle in the presidential WHY then can’t I vote for J.D. in AZ? -g-
Yes!
I guess I need to send JD another little sumpthin sumpthin...
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Bless your heart
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I suggest that you do a little research..for a beginning
Let’s hope that gap keeps narrowing... go JD!
by 5% among conservatives? Hell no. Arizona conservatives if they are REAL conservatives need to send McCain’s butt packing in larger quantities then that. Good for J.D. starting to close that gap though. Primary is still awhile awa. We can do this.
McCain also supported the bailout, he joined with the Dems to stop judges because he thought they would do the same if the shoe were on the other foot...like with heathcare. He was behind Campaign finance reform. He was behind constitutional rights for terrorists. He has been the primary symbol of how to oppose one’s party to gain the love and adoration of the liberal press and an inspiration for the growing disasters such as Lindsey Graham who is not only pushing but cap and trade now. In summary if you think this is just about amnesty you need to do your research. If anyone is an enemy to conservatives it is the man who actually flirted with changing parties and running as John Kerry’s running mate.
Down with Maverick.
If anyone is an enemy to conservatives, it would be one who called himself a conservative -- yet attempted to constrain free speech and dilute American citizenship by selling it for a mess of pottage.
McCain is NOT a conservative.
He just plays one on TV.
Sometimes...
And remember, without Specter, the Dems would have had 60 votes in the Senate in 2009, and passed National Socialist Health Care with a filibuster-proof ...
Never mind.
I gag whenever I hear it, but it resonates with people who don't know better. He has to do a certain amount of masquerading as a conservative to win the primary, but he can't overdo it or his real supporters won't like it. Besides, he WANTS this lethal transformation to succeed. He'll look just conservative enough and do just enough to help HIMSELF, but his long term goal is not the preservation of this country. It may have been in his youth, but it isn't now.
“2010 Massachusetts Senate: Coakley 50%, Brown 41%
Tuesday, January 05, 2010”
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/massachusetts/2010_massachusetts_senate_coakley_50_brown_41
Coakley was ahead of Scott Brown by 9 points with 2 weeks to go, and still got clobbered. By comparison, JD is only behind by only 7%, and has over 4 months to overtake McInsane.
The other comparison would be to Rubio against Crist in FL. It started off with Crist ahead by a massive 22% (same margin McCain was a head of JD by on Jan 20).
August 19, 2009
2010 Florida GOP Primary: Crist 53%, Rubio 31%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/florida/2010_florida_gop_primary_crist_53_rubio_31
Within 2 months, Rubio had closed the gap to 14 points
October 21, 2009
2010 Florida GOP Senate Primary: Crist 49%, Rubio 35%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/florida/2010_florida_gop_senate_primary_crist_49_rubio_35
4 months after the first poll, Rubio was even with Crist:
December 15, 2009
2010 Florida GOP Senate Primary: Crist 43%, Rubio 43%
On Feb 1, 5 months after the poll which had Crist ahead by 22%, Rubi has overtaken Crist:
February 01, 2010
Florida GOP Senate: Rubio 49%, Crist 37%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/florida/florida_gop_senate_rubio_49_crist_37
So far, I'd say JD is moving on a faster overtaking trajectory than Rubio did. Rubio only managed to close up on Crist to 14 points from the 22 point deficit in 2 months, JD has managed to close his deficit from 22 points to only 7 points within 2 months. The next Rasmussen poll 2 months from now could prove very good news for JD. I am going to be looking for a deficit of 3 points or less if JD keeps attention to business. All the massive million dollar McCain attack ads haven't done him any good.
If I were McCain, I wouldn't be sleeping too good at night.
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