Posted on 03/18/2010 7:11:08 AM PDT by GOPGuide
Longtime incumbent John McCain now leads conservative challenger J.D. Hayworth by just seven points in Arizona’s hotly contested Republican Senate Primary race.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely Arizona GOP Primary voters shows McCain ahead 48% to 41%. Three percent (3%) favor another candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided.
Following the announcement that Sarah Palin would campaign for his reelection, McCain opened up a 53% to 31% lead over Hayworth in January. The two men were in a near tie in November.
But now Hayworth, a former congressman turned popular local talk radio host, is a formal candidate, and anti-immigration activist Chris Simcox has quit the race and endorsed him. For McCain, the new numbers also show him dropping again below 50%, and incumbents who poll less than 50% at this stage of a campaign are considered potentially vulnerable.
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
Hayworth leads by seven points among male primary voters but trails by 23 among women. He edges McCain by five points among party conservatives, but the incumbent holds substantial margins among Republicans who identify themselves as moderates or liberals.
Hayworth has been attacking McCain as not conservative enough, but the senator, who just two years ago was the Republican presidential nominee, has been countering with a number of heavyweight endorsements from the right. Palin will attend a McCain rally in Tucson later this month.
Polling last fall found that 61% of Arizona Republicans felt McCain was out of touch with the party base.
Arizona Republicans will choose their Senate nominee in an August 24 primary, and for now that’s the major battle of this Senate cycle since no major Democrat has announced yet as a candidate.
Twenty-nine percent (29%) of GOP Primary voters have a very favorable opinion of McCain, who has represented Arizona in the Senate since 1987. Fifteen percent (15%) view him very unfavorably.
Hayworth is seen very favorably by 25% and very unfavorably by 15%.
While both candidates are well-known among likely primary voters, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers at this point in a campaign.
Just 11% of Republicans in the state approve of the job President Obama is doing, while 88% disapprove.
Forty-seven percent (47%) approve of the performance of the state’s GOP governor, Jan Brewer, who is in a tough reelection battle this year. Fifty percent (50%) disapprove. These findings include six percent (6%) who strongly approve of how she’s doing her job and 17% who strongly disapprove.
In 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected nationally that Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama won 53% to 46%. Four years earlier, Rasmussen Reports projected the national vote totals for both George W. Bush and John Kerry within half-a-percentage-point.
In Arizona during the 2008 campaign, Rasmussen Reports polling showed McCain winning the state by a 51% to 45% margin. McCain defeated Obama 54% to 45%. In the 2006 Arizona governor’s race, Rasmussen polling showed Janet Napolitano defeating Len Munsil 58% to 37%. Napolitano won 63% to 35%. In the 2006 race for U.S. Senate, Rasmussen polling showed Jon Kyl leading Jim Pederson by nine, 51% to 42%. Kyl won by nine, 53% to 44%.
See all Rasmussen Reports 2008 state results for president, Senate and governor. See 2006 results for Senate and governor. See 2004 state results for president.
This is gonna be good....
J.D. is going to close that gap between now and when we go to the polls. Juan is gone.
Ignore this poll.
Scott Rasmussen is actually keeping Hitler’s brain in his basement. Robert Gibbs told us so.
Factoring in lib poll bias I’d say it’s a dead heat, huh?
Now, if only Sarah Palin would see the light and endorse J.D.
If she campaigns for McCain, I can never support her in the future.
F*** YES! JD is gaining!
If Palin helps get that damn bastard re-elected, she will never get my vote - period.
How can people POSSIBLY vote for this guy after his MISERABLE performance runninng against Obama?
He HELPED to PUT Obama in the White House!!!
Not exactly. This is Rasmussen, who is honest, not a liberal, and pretty accurate.
My feelings exactly. NO RINOS!
“Scott Rasmussen is actually keeping Hitler’s brain in his basement. Robert Gibbs told us so.”
In that case, Scott should give Gibbs the brain. Gibbs is a horrible liar.
Gibbs for Liar of the United States! LOTUS
She is on VERY thin ice with me on this one. I understand all the excuses for why she is doing this. Her possible feelings of “owing him” don’t hold a candle to doing the right thing for this COUNTRY! If he skitters through to another term in some close election, she’s going to get blamed...and rightfully so.
Sweet music to my ears!!
The is just a replay of Crist versus Rubio. JD is closing the gap and will move ahead in the upcoming months even with Palin campaigning for McCain on March 23.
The sad thing is that Hayworth is not getting as much support from women as he is from men. Sarah Palin could have a really big influence in that category - and she’s campaigning for the liberal John McCain. I love Sarah, bought her book & now she is using my support to help McCain.
I think a lot of Republicans and Independents will be going to the polls this year. ObamaCare, on top of all the damn windmills popping up all over Arizona, is going to be enough to push them to the polls to say enough is enough.
Sarah needs to stay clear of McNasty and neither show herself with him or support him in any way. The primary is a long time from now. If JD closes the gap between now and just before the primary, she should (at the least) throw her support behind JD. If she doesn’t, she is toast IMHO.
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