where da hurricanes at???
Posted on 08/15/2009 4:26:42 PM PDT by neverdem
Since the mid-1990s, hurricanes and tropical storms have struck the Atlantic Ocean with unusual frequency — or have they? Two new studies suggest that the situation may not be so clear.
One, by researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, suggests that the high number of storms reported these days may reflect improved observation and analysis techniques, not a meteorological change for the worse. The second, by researchers at Pennsylvania State University and elsewhere, suggests that there were as many storms a thousand years ago, when Atlantic Ocean waters were unusually warm, as today.
The work does not suggest that people should stop worrying about whether global warming increases the threat of bad weather on the Atlantic Coast. But it offers new evidence that predicting what lies ahead may be difficult.
In findings reported this week in The Journal of Climate, the NOAA researchers, led by Christopher W. Landsea, say that several disturbances logged in 2007 and 2008 as tropical storms would never have been identified without satellite observations and new analysis techniques.
The researchers studied storms that played themselves out at sea, either in a day or two or over a longer period, from 1878 to 2008. By the late 19th century, they estimated, meteorologists missed perhaps two of the larger storms each year, and by the 1950s they were picking up on average all but one each year.
Yet the researchers estimate that a century ago, as many as 80 percent of short-lived storms came and went without ever being officially noticed.
Over all, they conclude, storm counts have not changed in the last century.
The other study, described in Thursday’s issue of the journal Nature, used a mathematical model of hurricane activity and measurements of sediment deposits to estimate how often major storms struck the Gulf...
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
I can't find Landsea's citation.
Is there anything more gullible than a liberal??? Anything?? Anything at all?? ~chirp, chirp, chirp~ And Al Gore is all set up to cash in on their gullibility.
Of course not, eh New York Times? Because, to believe otherwise might just put the kibosh on the whole darned global warming scam.
Belief of AGW amongst the public increased significantly after hurricane Katrina. For whatever reason, people took an event that happens every year, sometimes multiple times a year and somehow projected that as evidence of a warming planet - of course, the MSM did their darnedest to paint that picture, so one shouldn't be too surprised that it worked.
Now, some four years later, here's a study that says, "not so fast on the increase in storms thing". So, the NYT's has to carry ALGORE's water and issue the caveat that this has nothing to do with minimizing the dangers of AGW - How predictable.
How would we have known how many Atlantic tropical storms there were in the 1930s? No satellites to record them, no airplanes to record them and ships would try to avoid storms.
How would we have known how many Atlantic tropical storms there were in the 1930s?Rise and fall of barometric pressure at a distance by multiple (reporting) stations (incl. ships at sea); observation of the sky for tell-tale circular out-flow cloud patterns.
Just a (heavily-influenced by history, knowledge of meteorology and earth-science SWAG) guess on my part.
/sarc
I guess the reporting stations at sea would have had to be ships. I don’t know how many ships would have been in the tropical storm zone continuously.
Seriously, I doubt that there was much reliable info on the storms. I recall that in the 1950s it was big news to have airplanes enter these storms to record pressures and wind speeds.
Seriously, I doubt that there was much reliable info on the storms. I recall that in the 1950s it was big news to have airplanes enter these storms to record pressures and wind speeds.'Up close and personal' is the only way to do it huh ...
So, unless it "bites the hand" of Western man it doesn't exist (IOW, we have not learned to read the signs at-a-distance) ...
As homework, I would suggest when the next hurricane approches the coast you closely observe the skies while the storm is still several hundred miles away ...
Bonus points: When was the telegraph invented and when was the first successful trans-Atlantic cable laid?
Methinks the whole world has forgotten just how big shipping, commerce, and shipping-insurance was back a century and more ago ...
Possibly here:
Impact of Duration Thresholds on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Counts, Landsea CW, Vecchi GA, Bengtsson L, Knutson TR (2009)
I have a flash. Mere observation negates the claims also.
The FIRST potential storm of the year in the Atlantic has just formed in the last couple of days...try this link for actual weather ignored by national media..http://www.iceagenow.com/
No kidding!
I used to think Al Gore was the biggest idiot to rise to high office. When I learned about his rapid increase in wealth, I realized he wasn’t such a big idiot after all. He’s cashing-in just like he did with those impoverished monks. If you are willing to give him money, he’ll happily take it from you.
Besides, he wouldn’t have such a gigantic carbon footprint if he really believed his own propaganda.
Thank you. It probably is it. How did you find it?
where da hurricanes at???
I took a bit of a circuitous route to get there - first searching on google for "The Journal of Climate", which eventually led me to the American Meterological Society Journals Home Page, from where I did a basic full text search on Landsea, which gave me lots of old citations but not the desired one, however the search results page included a set of advanced search fields (that I probably could have gotten simply by clicking on "Advanced Search"), which allowed me to search for Landsea as the author's last name and the words "tropical storms" anywhere in the article, while limiting the search to "Journal of Climate" in the 'Select Journals' field.
The link to the page that I posted came up as the seventh (final) paper in the search results. (phew!)
Well, you did ask how I found it... :-)
Luckier than me. I went to the AMS home page. I tried an advanced search in Journal of Climate using his name and 2009. Nada. Thank you.
For nearly a decade, many here at FR and other scientists worldwide have been making the exact same point that these fool people paid by the taxpayers $100,000s+/yr have finally conceded.
Duh... what a surprise... before satellites we didn’t have global weather coverage. What a wonderful insight they have broken upon the world, at least the world of the NYSlimes.
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Thanks for the ping!
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