Posted on 07/02/2009 9:30:03 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Sounds far-fetched and, to some, totally implausible. But the Republicans are losing potential candidates at a pace that is downright alarming if you believe in a healthy two-party system. The demise of John Ensign’s political career a few weeks ago and the surreal downfall of Mark Sanford last week is enough to send chills through the even the most optimistic Republican strategist. We know that of the 2008 crop, only Mitt Romney seems likely to stay on as a contender. The old stalwarts like Newt Gingrich may get a lot of press, but it is unlikely they can mount a real challenge to Obama in 2012. Yet, the presidential election of 2012 will be more than a simple coronation of Barack Obama if the economy stalls and there is no progress in two important areas: national security and healthcare.
Ballooning deficits and a sluggish economy could alter the mood of America by the time the 2010 mid-terms come up, giving hope to the GOP for the next presidential primary season. This is why Sarah Palin is maintaining a persistent media presence, whether it is debating David Letterman or being the biggest Republican draw on the lecture circuit. She clearly has her eyes set on the presidency.
The latest edition of Vanity Fair brings this possibility forward, though not in a favourable light. Journalist Todd Purdhom paints a picture of a woman with a narcissistic personality, who’s short on knowledge, disinterested in policy discussion, and not ready for primetime. In the end, the story says more about John McCain’s competence and character than it does about Palin, simply because he flubbed his most important decision as a presidential candidate. That said, Palin brought much needed energy to an otherwise lackluster campaign and, to this day, she energizes the base as no other candidate can. Could it be possible she may someday be a candidate for the presidency?
My experience tells me that no one should be written off in a hypothetical context. Barack Obama is proof positive of this. I still maintain that, without Bush, there is no Obama nomination. Palin is a street smart politician who has benefited from being underestimated most of her career. McCain’s disastrous choice may have been fatal to his electoral chances, but it brought Palin to the forefront of national attention. Since then, she has become a celebrity that transcends her party. However, if she is to be taken seriously and considered a viable contender, she needs to change the negative perceptions of her and develop a political profile that appeals to those outside her narrow base.
To do this, she must gradually reduce her exposure and begin to educate herself on the issues. She will not be ready for 2012 by remaining governor of Alaska and playing the celebrity. The GOP has too proud a tradition to have a re-run of the 2008 vice-presidential candidate. Also, the base Palin relies on for support no longer holds the sway it once did. Social conservatism is losing steam as a political movement thanks to the dubious habits of people like Gingrich, Ensign and Sanford, and the election of an African-American president as well as the increased attention paid to gay rights issues shows that Americans have begun to cast their old divisions aside. The future for the GOP lies with fiscal conservatism and strong national security policy—not with turning back the clock. Palin must embrace the values that created the Republican party in the first place—a belief in the individual, a belief in a limited role for the state, and a commitment to equality. The party of Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, Eisenhower, and (the pragmatic version of) Reagan is the path to a Republican resurgence. Palin is nowhere on that radar. She is all about celebrity status and controversy.
In the lead-up to July 4, Americans usually reflect on their great democracy. Overall, it is healthy and has shown resilience through the decades. But the Republicans have to become a viable alternative for this democracy to remain vibrant. So is Palin a real possibility for 2012 or 2016? Will she someday be a formal candidate for the presidency? Most definitely. But can she ever win? Based on what we have observed so far, I would say definitely not, though politics has been known to produce some strange developments.
Good point.
Gee, I’m glad Obama didn’t have a son, so he could start a new dynasty of father-son Obamas in office.
Fresh blood! We need new fresh conservative blood in the Republican Party, from the bottom to the top!
You know, the way moderates and independents vote has little to do with policies.
They vote on personality.
And Sarah Palin’s personality grates on most people who are not ideological conservatives.
That’s why she can’t win.
I don't know what debate you watched, but in the one I watched, Sarah Palin made Joe Biden look like a scripted, wooden automaton. She beat him about the head and shoulders mercilessly, and had my whole house cheering.
As for Obama, he barely escaped with his skin intact in his debate with uber-lame McCain. Sarah Palin would have dismantled Obama so badly, that he probably would have broken down crying.
"Slick"? "Smooth"? Surely, you aren't seriously affixing those attributes to The Great Teleprompter? Have you never heard this man attempt to conduct a conversation when he's without a script? He's pathetic when speaking off the cuff, or in impromptu situations.
I think it may grate you...and most I know can't stand The Magic BO but he got elected anyway....so much for your nebulous logic....
“And Sarah Palin’s personality grates on most people who are not ideological conservatives. That’s why she can’t win.”
You are right on that. I have talked to lots of people in the recent past who told me that they can’t stand the way she talks. I would counter with “But what about the issues?” People didn’t care. It’s like they are voting for American Idol, not a President.
If I may, I would venture that goldwaterrepublican is just that: a Goldwater Republican — someone with a small government, libertarian outlook. Someone who wants a whole lot less government involved in everything.
I’m glad Obama didn’t have a son, so he could start a new dynasty of father-son Obamas in office.
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But he does have too smarrt little daughters...
So the Obamas could start a new dynasty of father-daughter and mother-daughter Obamas in office.
Well I’m going to bed....all I can say is we better hope we get this Marxist narcissist out of office before the damage is unrepairable...
Excuse me, but please don’t start up with the sort of nasty personal attacks here that tend to give social/religious conservatives such a bad image.
Are you pro-choice?
With girls it’s not as likely. There are too many options out there for girls other than politics. Boys are more likely to follow in their father’s footsteps.
So, you can't defend your scurrilous attacks on Sarah Palin with any sort of fact, or reason. Just blind hatred.
Way to go, sport. You've made a case here tonight. Just not the one you thought you did.
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