Posted on 07/02/2009 9:30:03 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Sounds far-fetched and, to some, totally implausible. But the Republicans are losing potential candidates at a pace that is downright alarming if you believe in a healthy two-party system. The demise of John Ensign’s political career a few weeks ago and the surreal downfall of Mark Sanford last week is enough to send chills through the even the most optimistic Republican strategist. We know that of the 2008 crop, only Mitt Romney seems likely to stay on as a contender. The old stalwarts like Newt Gingrich may get a lot of press, but it is unlikely they can mount a real challenge to Obama in 2012. Yet, the presidential election of 2012 will be more than a simple coronation of Barack Obama if the economy stalls and there is no progress in two important areas: national security and healthcare.
Ballooning deficits and a sluggish economy could alter the mood of America by the time the 2010 mid-terms come up, giving hope to the GOP for the next presidential primary season. This is why Sarah Palin is maintaining a persistent media presence, whether it is debating David Letterman or being the biggest Republican draw on the lecture circuit. She clearly has her eyes set on the presidency.
The latest edition of Vanity Fair brings this possibility forward, though not in a favourable light. Journalist Todd Purdhom paints a picture of a woman with a narcissistic personality, who’s short on knowledge, disinterested in policy discussion, and not ready for primetime. In the end, the story says more about John McCain’s competence and character than it does about Palin, simply because he flubbed his most important decision as a presidential candidate. That said, Palin brought much needed energy to an otherwise lackluster campaign and, to this day, she energizes the base as no other candidate can. Could it be possible she may someday be a candidate for the presidency?
My experience tells me that no one should be written off in a hypothetical context. Barack Obama is proof positive of this. I still maintain that, without Bush, there is no Obama nomination. Palin is a street smart politician who has benefited from being underestimated most of her career. McCain’s disastrous choice may have been fatal to his electoral chances, but it brought Palin to the forefront of national attention. Since then, she has become a celebrity that transcends her party. However, if she is to be taken seriously and considered a viable contender, she needs to change the negative perceptions of her and develop a political profile that appeals to those outside her narrow base.
To do this, she must gradually reduce her exposure and begin to educate herself on the issues. She will not be ready for 2012 by remaining governor of Alaska and playing the celebrity. The GOP has too proud a tradition to have a re-run of the 2008 vice-presidential candidate. Also, the base Palin relies on for support no longer holds the sway it once did. Social conservatism is losing steam as a political movement thanks to the dubious habits of people like Gingrich, Ensign and Sanford, and the election of an African-American president as well as the increased attention paid to gay rights issues shows that Americans have begun to cast their old divisions aside. The future for the GOP lies with fiscal conservatism and strong national security policy—not with turning back the clock. Palin must embrace the values that created the Republican party in the first place—a belief in the individual, a belief in a limited role for the state, and a commitment to equality. The party of Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, Eisenhower, and (the pragmatic version of) Reagan is the path to a Republican resurgence. Palin is nowhere on that radar. She is all about celebrity status and controversy.
In the lead-up to July 4, Americans usually reflect on their great democracy. Overall, it is healthy and has shown resilience through the decades. But the Republicans have to become a viable alternative for this democracy to remain vibrant. So is Palin a real possibility for 2012 or 2016? Will she someday be a formal candidate for the presidency? Most definitely. But can she ever win? Based on what we have observed so far, I would say definitely not, though politics has been known to produce some strange developments.
Good points TN
some of these posters don’t like Gov. Palin because her dau. had a child.
They probably still hate St. Paul because he threw rocks at Christians at one time.
No. It was McCain-PALIN.
At least that was the sign on my lawn. :)
Yep, that’s it. It just keeps on coming up Romney. Once again the man and his supporters are digging him a hole he’ll never be able to climb out.
I too, thought of the ‘Songs of Solomon’ reading his emails to her. So beautiful and romantic.
But, then, it is very sad. He is portraying his love to a woman that is not his wife. This is a humiliation beyond compare (for Jenny) - with national coverage of his infidelity.
“I have a record on this website of predicting what the presidency of George Bush would look like, written in posts from 1999 to 2000, that turned out to be scarily correct.”
Wow. I’m surprised you’re still here. I know at least five people who were kicked off Free Republic in 1999-2000 for daring to criticize George Bush.
That doesn't mean one damn thing to me...and I'm surprised when it does to anyone else...I care more about character and values...
Palin could win the GOP nomination, but that is as far as she could go.
That is exactly why so many of us are afraid of her.
We want to throw 0bama out of office, and that will require a different candidate than Sarah Palin.
Here is a question for you guys:
If you knew Palin would lose and return 0bama to a second term, would you still support her for the Republican nomination?
It is only natural Fla went for Obama. The state is loaded with ret. people from the NE
Look, you are a liberal newbie troll with a nasty disposition that signed up a month ago that supports the left except on taxes. Did you even look into what kind of site that you were signing onto when you signed up?
Yeah, when the GOP race came down to McCain, Romney, and Huckabee you better believe I supported Romney, as did 80% of FreeRepublic.
But I had been a Fred Thompson supporter prior to him dropping out.
Hey I had one of those too!...lucky I didn't get my house burned down as I live in Obama-land...(So Cal)...;o)
You’re side tracking my point. The point is the size of crowds for Palin at an event don’t of necessity translate to VOTES on election day.
Fl voted for Bush twice (yes, I believe he fairly won the first time), so they had eight years of voting red, not blue. Stats show that young people came out to vote for Obama and especially unmarried women. That’s the group that put Obama over the top.
McCain had absolutely no fire in his belly to win. He was weak, weak, weak! He showed more zeal when he was trashing Bush.
When I think about potential presidential candidates, I find myself looking for experience, wisdom, and gravitas. To me, the future president looks more like Cheney than like Palin. I think she *might* be ready for the Big Show in two more presidential cycles, if she adds to her resume and really devotes herself to learning all the things she needs to be president. And yes, I realize that she already has more experience than Obama ... but so what? He is nothing to write home about, as we all know. The European leaders snicker about him behind his back, as being wet behind the ears — and they’re right. We shouldn’t field a GOP candidate who is still learning on the job. We need someone who truly is ready from Day 1. And I’m not at all convinced that Sarah Palin is that candidate, at least not for 2012.
What he did to his wife and 4 sons is beyond words.
He had mega times with his gal friend in the Hamptons, etc.
He is also a mentally unstable person.
Just listening to him many months ago was the first thing
that hit me.
Which candidate is that counterpunch?
I think Barry the Magnificent will screw things so royally that Donald Duck could wipe the floor with him in 2012...
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