This plot of sunspot numbers shows the measured peak of the last solar cycle (Solar Cycle 23) in blue and the predicted peak of the next solar cycle (24) in red. Credit: NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center.
Posted on 05/29/2009 1:24:29 PM PDT by tricky_k_1972
New Solar Cycle PredictionsThis plot of sunspot numbers shows the measured peak of the last solar cycle (Solar Cycle 23) in blue and the predicted peak of the next solar cycle (24) in red. Credit: NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center. |
by Tony Phillips
Boulder CO (SPX) May 28, 2009
An international panel of experts has released a new prediction for the next solar cycle, stating that Solar Cycle 24 will peak in May 2013 with a below-average number of sunspots. Led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and sponsored by NASA, the panel includes a dozen members from nine different government and academic institutions.
Their forecast sets the stage for at least another year of mostly quiet conditions before solar activity resumes in earnest.
"If our prediction is correct, Solar Cycle 24 will have a peak sunspot number of 90, the lowest of any cycle since 1928 when Solar Cycle 16 peaked at 78," says panel chairman Doug Biesecker of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, Colo.
It is tempting to describe such a cycle as "weak" or "mild," but that could give the wrong impression. "Even a below-average cycle is capable of producing severe space weather," says Biesecker. "The great geomagnetic storm of 1859, for instance, occurred during a solar cycle of about the same size we're predicting for 2013."
The 1859 storm - named the "Carrington Event" after astronomer Richard Carrington who witnessed the instigating solar flare - electrified transmission cables, set fires in telegraph offices, and produced Northern Lights so bright that people could read newspapers by their red and green glow.
A recent report by the National Academy of Sciences found that if a similar storm occurred today, it could cause $1 to 2 trillion in damages to society's high-tech infrastructure and require four to ten years for complete recovery. For comparison, Hurricane Katrina caused $80 to 125 billion in damage.
The latest forecast revises a prediction issued in 2007, when a sharply divided panel believed solar minimum would come in March 2008 and would be followed by either a strong solar maximum in 2011 or a weak solar maximum in 2012. Competing models of the solar cycle produced different forecasts, and researchers were eager for the sun to reveal which was correct.
"It turns out that none of the models were really correct," says Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. NASA's lead representative on the panel. "The sun is behaving in an unexpected and very interesting way."
Astronomers first noted the solar cycle in the mid-1800s. Graphs of sunspot numbers resemble a roller coaster, going up and down with an approximately 11-year period. Predicting the peaks and valleys has proven troublesome because cycles vary in length from 9 to 14 years. Some peaks are high, others low.
The valleys are usually brief, lasting only a couple of years, but sometimes they stretch much longer. In the 17th century, the sun plunged into a 70-year period of spotless quiet known as the Maunder Minimum that still baffles scientists.
Right now, the solar cycle is in a valley--the deepest of the past century. In 2008 and 2009, the sun set Space Age records for low sunspot counts, weak solar wind, and low solar irradiance. The sun has gone more than two years without a significant solar flare.
"In our professional careers, we've never seen anything quite like it," says Pesnell. "Solar minimum has lasted far beyond what we predicted in 2007."
In recent months, however, the sun has begun to show signs of life. Small sunspots and "proto-sunspots" are popping up with increasing frequency. Enormous currents of plasma on the sun's surface ("zonal flows") are gaining strength and slowly drifting toward the sun's equator.
Radio astronomers have detected a tiny but significant uptick in solar radio emissions. All these things are precursors of an awakening Solar Cycle 24 and form the basis for the panel's new, almost unanimous forecast.
According to the forecast, the sun should remain generally calm for at least another year. From a research point of view, that's good news because solar minimum has proven to be more interesting than anyone imagined. Low solar activity has a profound effect on Earth's atmosphere, allowing it to cool and contract. Space junk accumulates in Earth orbit because there is less aerodynamic drag.
The becalmed solar wind whips up fewer magnetic storms around Earth's poles. Cosmic rays that are normally pushed back by solar wind instead intrude on the near-Earth environment. There are other side-effects, too, that can be studied only so long as the sun remains quiet.
Meanwhile, the sun pays little heed to human committees. There could be more surprises, panelists acknowledge, and more revisions to the forecast.
"Go ahead and mark your calendar for May 2013," says Pesnell. "But use a pencil."
Everyone has to see this, and also they’ve gotta show everyone they know, too...
It’s one thing to gripe and complain about these things and disagree with it, but it’s quite *another* to convince your friends and neighbors and relatives and coworkers...
THEREFORE..., it’s also absolutely necessary for people to know the information in the following documentary. If there were simply *one* video that you could see and/or show people you know... this would be the *one*...
The following is an *excellent* video documentary on the so-called “Global Warming” I would recommend it to all FReepers. It’s a very well-made documentary.
“The Great Global Warming Swindle”
If you want to download it, via a BitTorrent site (using a BitTorrent client), you can get it at the following link.
http://thepiratebay.org/torrent/3635222/The_Great_Global_Warming_Swindle
[this is a high-quality copy, of about a gigabyte in size...]
It’s worth seeing and having for relatives, friends, neighbors and coworkers to see.
Also, see it online here...
http://www.moviesfoundonline.com/great_global_warming_swindle.php
[this one is considerably lower quality, is a flash video and viewable online, of course...]
Buy it here...
http://www.amazon.com/dp/B000WLUXZE
[this one would be the very highest quality version, on a DVD disk, of several gigabytes in size...]
—
Also, in split parts on YouTube...
The Great Global Warming Swindle (Part 1 of 8)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMA6sszChwQ
The Great Global Warming Swindle (Part 2 of 8)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ERisgJ3QWjk
The Great Global Warming Swindle (Part 3 of 8)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HLVYwmZoxc
The Great Global Warming Swindle (Part 4 of 8)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jr-AG3BA1Go
The Great Global Warming Swindle (Part 5 of 8)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vbllTsBHuxk
The Great Global Warming Swindle (Part 6 of 8)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KyK7C1OrAAo
The Great Global Warming Swindle (Part 7 of 8)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrIX8LcAuMQ
The Great Global Warming Swindle (Part 8 of 8)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-ZmCDOZbtM
Their last predictions were inaccurate.
So what do they do? They make more predictions.
Sounds like science is a lot like government.
Aren’t these the same folks who told us where humans come from?
Big of them to admit it.
/johnny
Thanks - and bump
Does this mean we don’t have to paint our roofs white?
This means invest in blankets and insulation. It’s gonna get real cold.
It seems to me that modelling the sun’s activity should be much simpler than modelling the earth’s atmosphere, as there are many fewer variables. And yet we can’t model the sun properly either....
Makes me real optimistic about climate change modelling....
hh
Nice video Star Traveler. Thanks for the links.
Yeah, but the difference between a scientist and a politician is that the scientist concedes there is room for error in his prediction. Politicians are never wrong, apparently.
I think you’re on to something there... :-)
What they’re not admitting is that the people they refused to consider were correct.
Climate change modelling just makes the modelers assertions look more scientific. But I’d disagree with the assertion that there are many fewer variables. I’d say that we know less about what variables there are.
The sun is actually a very dynamic and complicated thing. It is not some simple blob of nuclear fire in the sky that never changes in unpredictable ways. And we can observe may things on the earth first-hand. No one can go to the sun and observe the "weather." After this new solar cycle has run its course, a lot of textbooks on astrophysics will be revised. Scientists will know more about how stars work. This knowledge could save lives. If we knew we were headed for another mini ice age event, we might be able to do some things to prepare for it although we could not come close to completely preparing for it.
Peak of the last solar cycle I worked Norfolk Island,
on 10m
SSB.
Even I was surprised.....
The ancient Sun Worshipers forgot more than these bozo’s know.
I say it’s time for a good blood sacrifice.
"It turns out that none of the models were really correct," says Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. NASA's lead representative on the panel. "The sun is behaving in an unexpected and very interesting way."
LOL! Now THERE'S an "Inconvenient Truth"!
Thanks.
People should note the “Maunder Minimum” and use that in comparison to anything that they think is going on today...
Maunder Minimum
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_minimum
And this...
Deep Solar Minimum
An item on SpaceWeather.com speculates that 2009 could match 1913 as the blankest year of the past century.
The report posted March 22, 2009 says
Where have all the sunspots gone? As of yesterday, March 21st, the sun has been blank on 85% of the days of 2009. If this rate of spotlessness continues through the end of the year, 2009 will match 1913 as the blankest year of the past century.
A flurry of new-cycle sunspots in Oct. 2008 prompted some observers to declare that solar minimum was ending, but since then the calm has returned.
We are still in the pits of a deep solar minimum.
[ http://www.southgatearc.org/news/march2009/deep_solar_minimum.htm ]
So, if we even approach a Maunder Minimum, we’re in for a lot of cold, cold winters, and certainly not all this stuff that the AGW people (Anthropogenic Global Warming) talk about... :-)
IN FACT..., it’s sort of like “someone” has created this very low sunspot cycle to demonstrate the cooling it produces, in order to “put the lie” to the AGW people... LOL...
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