Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Final Zogby 2008 poll, O 54.1 (+3.8) M 42.7 (-1.1)
zogby ^

Posted on 11/03/2008 10:18:29 PM PST by 1972BornFree

He hasn't updated the text yet, just the graph.

Obama 52.1 McCain 42.7


TOPICS: Breaking News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: mccain; obama; poll; zogby
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-63 next last
To: Chet 99

GIGO. I keep telling people to ignore Zogby. No one listens. I hate it when that happens.


41 posted on 11/03/2008 10:52:37 PM PST by kesg
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 34 | View Replies]

To: 1972BornFree

Is he drunk?


42 posted on 11/03/2008 10:56:29 PM PST by Cinnamon Girl ("We rocked the vote all right; those little b-------s betrayed us again." Hunter S. Thompson)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: pillut48

If Hussein gets 27% of conservatives this country is done for.

Give me a freakin break with this nonsense!

Why even post something so obviously false. The space used to post it would of been better served by a story on Bigfoot.


43 posted on 11/03/2008 10:56:30 PM PST by MichiganRed08
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 38 | View Replies]

To: 1972BornFree

Rush said he talked w/ a supposedly credible pollster today & that if he’s wrong he will go get a job flipping hamburgers at McDonalds.

Note: Rush said his poll had Obambi ahead by quite a bit but not like this?


44 posted on 11/03/2008 10:58:48 PM PST by BrianE
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: PowerPro

“Actually weighting is an issue. They are assigning a higher +D based on assumptions.”

Yes, they have. And we already know that those assumptions of D vs. R voter turnout are most likely wrong. However, I am more interested in the MOVEMENT within that given methodology. Away from us or towards us? If a poll is at 5% with a given methodology, does it tighten to 3%, then 2% (and you can then reweight as you see fit with your own assumed turnout model) or does it move away to 7%, 9%? I just don’t like that every poll has things moving in the wrong direction, including GWU/Battleground and IBD/TIPP, which both have a reasonable turnout expectation.


45 posted on 11/03/2008 11:03:14 PM PST by floridagopvoter
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 37 | View Replies]

To: This Just In; 1972BornFree
You’re a Troll.

If so, you must be a n00b, to identify a troll and then feed it.

46 posted on 11/03/2008 11:03:39 PM PST by Gondring (Paul Revere would have been flamed as a naysayer troll and told to go back to Boston.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: Chet 99
The “special sauce” of the Zogster just keeps getting smellier by the day. Obama with 91% of Dems? Hogwash. McCain only getting 85% of GOP? Bravo Sierra! So are we supposed to believe that Zogby and Gallup are predicting that the most leftist and radical candidate in the history of the U.S.A. is going to get over 54-55% of the popular vote, which hasn't happened since LBJ in 1964?!!

Make the MSM and pollsters pay for their arrogance! Get out and vote!

47 posted on 11/03/2008 11:05:07 PM PST by princeofdarkness (Ronald Reagan- "Trust But Verify" MSM- "Report, Lie, Then Crucify")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: Gondring

I do not know what a n00b is. Perhaps you will enlightened?


48 posted on 11/03/2008 11:06:00 PM PST by This Just In
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 46 | View Replies]

To: pillut48

You’re right. Dissent would be stifled. Remember, the radical left doesn’t need to actually change the Constitution to mess with America, they just need 5 votes on the SCOTUS. Once they have that, they can and will do whatever the hell they want. Obama in the White House, Pelosi and Reid running Congress, and wacko liberals running the SCOTUS - if that comes to pass, America is finished.

We must prevail today.


49 posted on 11/03/2008 11:13:02 PM PST by GiveEmDubya (Piper Palin 2044)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 38 | View Replies]

To: PowerPro

Ok, final IBD/TIPP just came out:

http://www.tipponline.com/

IBD/TIPP Predicts Obama Victory by 7.2 Point Margin Over McCain

Final IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll Shows Obama Leading McCain 51.5% to 44.3%


50 posted on 11/03/2008 11:13:48 PM PST by floridagopvoter
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 37 | View Replies]

To: floridagopvoter

Troll!!

Just kidding.


51 posted on 11/03/2008 11:17:57 PM PST by 1972BornFree
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 50 | View Replies]

To: floridagopvoter

Well again...the internals are hinky.

The folks at www.hedgehogreport.com does a good job ripping these things apart.


52 posted on 11/03/2008 11:25:24 PM PST by PowerPro (McCain/Palin FTW)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 50 | View Replies]

To: 1972BornFree

Boy, that one was at what, 1.5% just two days ago. Now it is at 7%?

Notice how they allocate undecideds. Of the 6% remaining undecideds they allocate 4% going to Obama, 1.9% going to McCain. The common wisdom is that McCain gets most of the undecideds, but that is not shared by any of the pollsters, even those with very favorable turnout models for McCain.

I think the undecideds will probably go 50-50 to each candidate or slightly towards McCain 60-40. But I can see where IBD/TIPP is coming from here. Part of the reason IBD went with the allocation they are applying is most likely that they believe that many of the undecideds (mostly white, older voters) simply won’t end up voting at all, remain undecided for the duration, so then Obama picks up many of the remaining undecideds by default in a “wanting to catch the wave and vote for the perceived winner” move, a not so uncommon behavior of late deciders in races with two non-incumbents.


53 posted on 11/03/2008 11:28:17 PM PST by floridagopvoter
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 51 | View Replies]

To: PowerPro

Still, it is uncanny that not a single poll has “hinky” internals favoring us. Fox had a poll out last week that showed 3%, now they are at, what, 8%? GWU/Battleground has flown the coop, and IBD/TIPP, hailed here as the “most accurate pollster in 2004” is now gone as well.

I think it is safe to assume that McCain is going to lose the popular vote. The hope is that he can win a parlay of tight battleground states to eek out a win in spite of it. I have my doubts, but if McCain can win in PA unexpectedly, then all bets are off and some people may strike it rich on Intrade.com.


54 posted on 11/03/2008 11:34:35 PM PST by floridagopvoter
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 52 | View Replies]

To: floridagopvoter

I’m not going to assume anything.

IBD/TIPP assigned undecideds in this last poll. ASSIGNED them.

Most national polls are gifting +8 through +13...a standard never met apparently. Historically, it could go up to perhaps +3 or +4 but they are giving the Dems a number never seen before. Why?

Also...I’m extremely confident we’ll pick up PA. There are a few states I’m nervous about but PA isn’t one of them. In fact, I’ll bet you a virtual candy bar that he wins PA.


55 posted on 11/03/2008 11:38:45 PM PST by PowerPro (McCain/Palin FTW)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 54 | View Replies]

To: PowerPro

Well, I had it out with HamiltonJay on that one before. I simply don’t see PA. Too many things going against us this cycle. I would love to be proven wrong, as for McCain it is a mandatory get to win this thing. So, you are on for that Heath bar. :-)


56 posted on 11/03/2008 11:44:14 PM PST by floridagopvoter
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 55 | View Replies]

To: floridagopvoter

Well McCain was better than Dole. He never fell off the stage. But that was about it.


57 posted on 11/04/2008 2:06:31 AM PST by screaminsunshine
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 50 | View Replies]

To: housedeep

He always is. In ‘04 he was the laughingstock.


58 posted on 11/04/2008 3:51:39 AM PST by Jezebelle (Our tax dollars are paying the ACLU to sue the Christ out of us.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Jezebelle

Relax people - go out and vote...

This is a referendum on MSM, pollsters, and Obama


59 posted on 11/04/2008 3:52:41 AM PST by DocT111
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 58 | View Replies]

To: 1972BornFree

But Zogby, why are you settling for low 50’s?

Simply hange that 5 to a 6, or 7. Wouldn’t that look better to you?


60 posted on 11/04/2008 4:02:33 AM PST by reasonisfaith (A liberal can never stand up like a man and admit his true beliefs.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-63 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson