Posted on 11/03/2008 10:18:29 PM PST by 1972BornFree
He hasn't updated the text yet, just the graph.
Obama 52.1 McCain 42.7
GIGO. I keep telling people to ignore Zogby. No one listens. I hate it when that happens.
Is he drunk?
If Hussein gets 27% of conservatives this country is done for.
Give me a freakin break with this nonsense!
Why even post something so obviously false. The space used to post it would of been better served by a story on Bigfoot.
Rush said he talked w/ a supposedly credible pollster today & that if he’s wrong he will go get a job flipping hamburgers at McDonalds.
Note: Rush said his poll had Obambi ahead by quite a bit but not like this?
“Actually weighting is an issue. They are assigning a higher +D based on assumptions.”
Yes, they have. And we already know that those assumptions of D vs. R voter turnout are most likely wrong. However, I am more interested in the MOVEMENT within that given methodology. Away from us or towards us? If a poll is at 5% with a given methodology, does it tighten to 3%, then 2% (and you can then reweight as you see fit with your own assumed turnout model) or does it move away to 7%, 9%? I just don’t like that every poll has things moving in the wrong direction, including GWU/Battleground and IBD/TIPP, which both have a reasonable turnout expectation.
If so, you must be a n00b, to identify a troll and then feed it.
Make the MSM and pollsters pay for their arrogance! Get out and vote!
I do not know what a n00b is. Perhaps you will enlightened?
You’re right. Dissent would be stifled. Remember, the radical left doesn’t need to actually change the Constitution to mess with America, they just need 5 votes on the SCOTUS. Once they have that, they can and will do whatever the hell they want. Obama in the White House, Pelosi and Reid running Congress, and wacko liberals running the SCOTUS - if that comes to pass, America is finished.
We must prevail today.
Ok, final IBD/TIPP just came out:
IBD/TIPP Predicts Obama Victory by 7.2 Point Margin Over McCain
Final IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll Shows Obama Leading McCain 51.5% to 44.3%
Troll!!
Just kidding.
Well again...the internals are hinky.
The folks at www.hedgehogreport.com does a good job ripping these things apart.
Boy, that one was at what, 1.5% just two days ago. Now it is at 7%?
Notice how they allocate undecideds. Of the 6% remaining undecideds they allocate 4% going to Obama, 1.9% going to McCain. The common wisdom is that McCain gets most of the undecideds, but that is not shared by any of the pollsters, even those with very favorable turnout models for McCain.
I think the undecideds will probably go 50-50 to each candidate or slightly towards McCain 60-40. But I can see where IBD/TIPP is coming from here. Part of the reason IBD went with the allocation they are applying is most likely that they believe that many of the undecideds (mostly white, older voters) simply won’t end up voting at all, remain undecided for the duration, so then Obama picks up many of the remaining undecideds by default in a “wanting to catch the wave and vote for the perceived winner” move, a not so uncommon behavior of late deciders in races with two non-incumbents.
Still, it is uncanny that not a single poll has “hinky” internals favoring us. Fox had a poll out last week that showed 3%, now they are at, what, 8%? GWU/Battleground has flown the coop, and IBD/TIPP, hailed here as the “most accurate pollster in 2004” is now gone as well.
I think it is safe to assume that McCain is going to lose the popular vote. The hope is that he can win a parlay of tight battleground states to eek out a win in spite of it. I have my doubts, but if McCain can win in PA unexpectedly, then all bets are off and some people may strike it rich on Intrade.com.
I’m not going to assume anything.
IBD/TIPP assigned undecideds in this last poll. ASSIGNED them.
Most national polls are gifting +8 through +13...a standard never met apparently. Historically, it could go up to perhaps +3 or +4 but they are giving the Dems a number never seen before. Why?
Also...I’m extremely confident we’ll pick up PA. There are a few states I’m nervous about but PA isn’t one of them. In fact, I’ll bet you a virtual candy bar that he wins PA.
Well, I had it out with HamiltonJay on that one before. I simply don’t see PA. Too many things going against us this cycle. I would love to be proven wrong, as for McCain it is a mandatory get to win this thing. So, you are on for that Heath bar. :-)
Well McCain was better than Dole. He never fell off the stage. But that was about it.
He always is. In ‘04 he was the laughingstock.
Relax people - go out and vote...
This is a referendum on MSM, pollsters, and Obama
But Zogby, why are you settling for low 50’s?
Simply hange that 5 to a 6, or 7. Wouldn’t that look better to you?
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