What are nationalwide registration stats?
This model is IMPOSSIBLE, IMPOSSIBLE, check your history.
Garbage In, Garbage Out.
Turnout will be most likely even like 2004, Democrats will defect from Obama in droves.
These polls drive me nuts. They give these figures and don’t tell what questions were asked, who was polled..so for all we know, they only question democRATS or maybe undecideds..
And to listen to FOX tonight they are all but bringing out the funeral wreath for McC/Palin..
Pray to God and pray hard that they are dead wrong and the turnout is about even.
Plugging ears and singing loudly, “LALALALALALA!””
More Indies than Pubbies...Right, Gallup, that’s believable.
Most people don’t “get it” - they wonder why they aren’t “polled” - and when they are - Gallup called me a few years ago and sent out a very nice, polished survey first class mail, etc.
“polling” is a worm and ought to be excised from the body politic.
You mean D39, R31, I29 Right?
My gut is that the polls are wrong. The Democrats played the race card this cycle so often that voters are intimidated and will not say they are not voting for Obama or hanging up.
Rush’s Operation Chaos in action!
“Now we know Gallup’s “likely voter” model: 39%D, 31%I, 29%R. Kinda explains a lot”
Well, the 8-10% derived from voter fraud has to come from somewhere. Gallop either knows what is going on (Obama can’t win an honest election IMO) or he will be a laughing stock Wednesday morning.
FWIW, the EXIT POLLS for 2004 showed turnout for Dems and Republicans even at 38%.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/H/00/epolls.0.html
VOTE BY PARTY ID TOTAL Democrat Republican
Democrat.....................(38%)..........90%...........9%
Republican...................(38%)..........7%...........93%
Independent.................(25%).........49%..........46%
So let’s get this straight. With that type of party id McCain was at one point behind by only 2 (last week). HA! I wonder what the real number would have looked like with a reasonable party id
The MSM and the polling companies are in the tank for each other.
Total bias!
hehe...Gallup obviously never listened to Rush!!!...
Operation Chaos GETS THE LAST LAUGH!
Looking at their definitions of the two models;
Gallup's "expanded" likely voter model determines likely voters based only on current voting intentions. This estimate would take into account higher turnout among groups of voters traditionally less likely to vote, such as young adults and minorities.
Gallup's "traditional" likely voter model, which Gallup has employed for past elections, factors in prior voting behavior as well as current voting intention. This has generally shown a closer contest, reflecting the fact that Republicans have typically been more likely to vote than Democrats in previous elections.
How on earth can the two different models show the same result? It's like saying, "apples = oranges".
It's as if they got a phone call from the Obama camp saying how dare you have a poll that assumes that Republicans are more likely to vote than Democrats.
It's bad enough they morphed their RV poll into a LV (Expanded) poll. Now they morph LV (Expanded) into LV (Tradidtional).
It's as if in order to be politically correct, Gallup now uses the following formula for its three polls....
So almost a third of voters are undecided and that is more than the total Republican voting electorate? Smell like Bullstalin.
Ban public polling! These people are really screwing up the electoral process. If people don't believe in fair elections, we'll end up with a revolution. Why follow the laws these con artists promulgate??? If McCain loses, we need to break up into separate Republics before it gets crazy. Yugoslavia didn't work and it looks like the USA is falling apart because one party is oppressing the people. This can only end poorly.
ping...