Gallup Final Estimate: O 55 - M 44

Gallup ^ | 11/02/08 | Gallup

[Chet 99]

Zogby is all over the map from one day to the nex. ABC had McCain and 0 tied with independents per National Review, the 4% edge Gallup now shows is razor thin. Not sure what the % differences are with WSJ/Pew.

The biggest cause of the lead is the Dem sampling advantage. Take it away, and you’re looking at a 2 to 3 point nail biter, not a Reagan/Eisenhower style landslide.

If Dems outnumber Republicans by 10% on election days, AND independents vote for Democrats, the GOP is looking at 1932/1964 style wipeout... the party will cease to exist as a force of any kind in national politics for at least the next two years.

Gallup had this a 2 point race a week ago, now it is an 11 point race. Pew had it a 15 point race just DAYS ago, now they have it pegged at 6. Millions of people flipped sides in opposing directions in two different well known polls, at the very same time?

You don’t see anything unusual with the polls this year?

[Chet 99]

If that one moves to, say, 4% for Obama, there would not be a single poll even close to a McCain victory, unless GWU/Battleground gives us something good today.

Ahhh... but a poll at 4% can be incorrect as well. McCain needs to only be within 2% of the popular vote to win the electoral college. The recent state poll releases from Mason Dixon and SuveyUSA suggest an Obama national lead of 2 to 3%, not the blowout number suggested by Gallup.

[ubaldus]

R2000 (Kos) poll is out, and Obama leads by 4 in the daily sample, by 6 in aggregate.
That’s the second daily sample in a row in which the lead is down to 4, and they show McCain +15 with white voters, probably this number will go up to +16 tomorrow.

So, they are predicting a narrow Obama victory, as opposed to Gallup/ABC/WSJ predicted blowouts.

[NYC Republican]

They’ll have an embedded excuse- they didn’t anticipate the “rac” vote

[Evan3457]

To put it succinctly: no.

[Toespi]

But we better be prepared for President
OOOOOOOOBAMMMMMMMMMMAAAAAAA.

“Get it together mate, you’re cracking up.”

LOL! You are right but I gotta say, this is what his name sounds like to me every time I hear it.

[NYC Republican]

Norm- source please?

[jveritas]

Only 12% of Ohio are blacks and most of them voted early.

[Proudcongal]

Rasmussen shows D +6.5 in his 6-week average

And yet Rasmussen has Obama up only 5 (as of yesterday). What does that tell you?

[Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus]

Past Gallup performance - the only big miss was 1992, when they missed by 6 (assigning too much of Perot vote to Clinton). In 1996, 2000, 2004 they were within 3% from the correct margin.

I guess this'll be their next big miss year, because there is no way that Obama is going to win this thing 55%-44%.

[Proudcongal]

MN:

Obama 49%
McCain 46%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=f848e0e7-4b37-4480-9248-35238dba01ce

[Toespi]

Rove on Fox, just put Ohio in the blue column.

[jveritas]

What you are not mentioning is that they are oversampling the democrats by 10 points in this poll and have more independents than Republicans. They never oversampled the democrats by more than 4 points in all the polls that you mentioned below.

[NYC Republican]

Thanks

[mdmathis6]

Wow...some of those numbers had Obama 10 points or so only to have Clinton win it by 2.6.

[Big Horn]

I just wonder if sites like FR and talk shows like Rush will be shut down?

[Norman Bates]

Survey USA

[jveritas]

The majority of the polls where Obama is ahead is equal and in some cases less than the margin of oversampled democrats which means that in most of these polls Obama and McCain split the independents equally. It is that simple.

Anyway polls are meaningless and they have been used by Obama and his media as the most important weapon to depress the Republican base and try to win the elections.

Tomorrow We Vote. Tomorrow We Win.

Vote McCain/Palin.

[jveritas]

Based on media polls and nothing about what will happen tomorrow.

[NYC Republican]

Thanks