Zogby is all over the map from one day to the nex. ABC had McCain and 0 tied with independents per National Review, the 4% edge Gallup now shows is razor thin. Not sure what the % differences are with WSJ/Pew.
The biggest cause of the lead is the Dem sampling advantage. Take it away, and you’re looking at a 2 to 3 point nail biter, not a Reagan/Eisenhower style landslide.
If Dems outnumber Republicans by 10% on election days, AND independents vote for Democrats, the GOP is looking at 1932/1964 style wipeout... the party will cease to exist as a force of any kind in national politics for at least the next two years.
Gallup had this a 2 point race a week ago, now it is an 11 point race. Pew had it a 15 point race just DAYS ago, now they have it pegged at 6. Millions of people flipped sides in opposing directions in two different well known polls, at the very same time?
You don’t see anything unusual with the polls this year?
R2000 (Kos) poll is out, and Obama leads by 4 in the daily sample, by 6 in aggregate.
That’s the second daily sample in a row in which the lead is down to 4, and they show McCain +15 with white voters, probably this number will go up to +16 tomorrow.
So, they are predicting a narrow Obama victory, as opposed to Gallup/ABC/WSJ predicted blowouts.
And don't forget TIPP and Battleground, which as of at least yesterday (I haven't yet see Battleground today) have the race within the margin of error with lots of undecideds. So does Rasmussen for that matter, if you adjust his party weights slightly to reflect the actual historical realities of how people vote in Presidential elections.
Someone is right and someone is wrong. Or maybe they all are.
I’m not sure.
I would feel better if there were a few with McCain up in the mix too
part of what is going on here is that there are exponentially more polls even than since 2004