R2000 (Kos) poll is out, and Obama leads by 4 in the daily sample, by 6 in aggregate.
That’s the second daily sample in a row in which the lead is down to 4, and they show McCain +15 with white voters, probably this number will go up to +16 tomorrow.
So, they are predicting a narrow Obama victory, as opposed to Gallup/ABC/WSJ predicted blowouts.
Again, in 2004 Bush won the white vote 58-41. That 15 point lead could very well be 17 points of better, given the margin of error for whatever sample that poll used.
Keep in mind that each point of the white vote is worth about .77% of a candidate's overall support. It is easily the most important demographic after party ID.