Gallup Final Estimate: O 55 - M 44

Gallup ^ | 11/02/08 | Gallup

[ubaldus]

Obama +11 with undecideds allocated. Without allocation: RV O 53 - M 40, LV O 53 - M 42 (in both models).

[techno]

Gallup must be bloodthirsty fools. Why else would they project such a ridiculous poll, other to give Dems more ammunition that the Republicans stole the election and to justify the rioting in the streets. Rush, this time you were wrong. Gallup decided to go all the way and commit polling hara-kiri.

[ApplegateRanch]

WTF you got against Skokie?

A Taco Bell at the Leper Colony on Molokai, Hawai’i, would be more appropriate.

[bailmeout]

Democrat - 39%, Independent - 31%, Republican - 29%

Gallup:

[Ingtar]

If Obama wins, it is the last polling they will need to do. The Dim machine will do their best to remove the Electoral College process and to will push through laws to make it so no Conservative can win again.

[nwrep]

Toespi, it is harder for me to believe Obama will get 55% of the popular vote than to believe McCain will win. I can see him getting around 50%, but he is not going to get 55%. The crowds you mention are irrelevant, as Gore (Tom Petty), and Kerry (Springsteen, Mellencamp, Sheryl Crow) all had massive 50,000 to 80,000+ rallies all over America.

[bailmeout]

So, based on estimates of 130 million voters in this election, the clowns at Gallup think 13 million more Dems will vote than Pubs?! The numbers were even in 2004 for crying out loud!

[Calif4Bush]

Starting my letter to Gallup:

To Whom It May Concern,

You have been wrong 99.999% of the time in my poll. See I'm a better pollster then you!

Please send an app for employment to:

We are going to win this!!!

[nwrep]

The numbers were even in 2004 for crying out loud!

I don't believe the numbers will be even this year, for numerous reasons we have already gone over. I think it is legit to assume a 3-5% spread in favor of the Dems. But 10% is absurd.

[ubaldus]

Past Gallup performance - the only big miss was 1992, when they missed by 6 (assigning too much of Perot vote to Clinton). In 1996, 2000, 2004 they were within 3% from the correct margin.

******************

2004 Final Poll (Actual)

Bush 49 (50.7)
Kerry 49 (48.2)

2000 Final Poll (Actual)

Bush 48 (47.9)
Gore 46 (48.4)

1996 Final Poll (Actual)

Clinton 52 (49.2)
Dole 41 (40.7)
Perot 7 (8.4)

1992 Final Poll (Actual)

Clinton 49 (43)
Bush 37 (37.5)
Perot 14 (18.9)

1988

Bush 56 (53.4)
Dukakis 44 (45.7)

1984

Reagan 59 (58.7)
Mondale 41 (40.6)

[Proud2BeRight]

Again, it doesn’t matter what percentag Comrade Zero gets if McCain gets 1 more vote than him in each state needed to total 270 electoral votes. Oh how I would enjoy watching the US Constitution shaft him with the Electoral College like he wants to shaft the US Constitution.

[Stonewall Jackson]

[Lexinom]

Yup. Gallup says so, must be true.

Vote!

[bailmeout]

I recalculated the results based on 2004 weightings (25% Indie, 37.5% each Dem/GOP). I backed into results by party ID (90-10 Dem for BHO, 90-10 GOP for Mac, Indies 52-48 for BHO).

Guess what? BHO and Mac are tied 50/50 with these assumptions! Frankly, I was generous to BHO. No way he wins 90% of the Dem vote because of the PUMA factor.

Gallup is an epic fail.

[wardaddy]

how can they poll cell phones?

i don’t get polled at home...unlisted

[rwilliam]

Gallup finally mentioned their party affiliation numbers in the article associated with their final poll. Here are those numbers:

Democrat - 39%
Independent - 31%
Republican - 29%

Here are the numbers from exit polling in the 2004 election:

Democrat - 37%
Republican - 37%
Independent - 26%

Here are the numbers from exit polling in the 2006 election:

Democrat - 38%
Republican - 36%
Independent - 26%

Do they really believe that the gap has gone from 0 in 2004 to +2 for the Democrats in 2006 to +10 for the Democrats in 2008?

Do YOU believe that?

-Bob

[wardaddy]

this poll has to be off

it’s too far off from most of the respectable polls

some polls in 1948 had Truman down 15 points final poll

wonder how the polling technology has changed?

[wardaddy]

that is nuts....Reagan only won by 8 in 1984

that is almost 10 times the margin Bush beat Kerry

the demography has not changed that much..some by not like that

[ubaldus]

I think D +10 party ID gap is probably an overestimate. Rasmussen shows D +6.5 in his 6-week average, I think the true gap is 5 to 8 points in this election.

[Ingtar]

I think the true gap is R+1. Adjusting for that puts McCain well over 300 electoral votes and seems to match where they have been campaigning. Don’t allow the poll street media to keep you from voting.

[bailmeout]

This year is different. They are making a huge turnout bet, specifically that pro-BHO black and youth turnout will be at record levels and pro-McCain turnout will be at below normal to depressed levels.

In other words, they are expecting that BHO will cause an unprecedented shift in the composition of the electorate.

That's why they are essentially assuming that 13 million more Dems will vote in this election than Pubs (130 million voters * 10 point Dem weighting advantage in their polls).

Not likely. Not even close, because there are strong indications that GOP turnout will grow significantly, maybe even more than the pro-Obama turnout. So, this poll is garbage.