[ubaldus]

I think D +10 party ID gap is probably an overestimate. Rasmussen shows D +6.5 in his 6-week average, I think the true gap is 5 to 8 points in this election.

[Ingtar]

I think the true gap is R+1. Adjusting for that puts McCain well over 300 electoral votes and seems to match where they have been campaigning. Don’t allow the poll street media to keep you from voting.

[tatown]

History is against you if you think dem turnout will be anything greater than 4% points.

The most accurate pollster of the 2004 presidential election is assuming D +3. Maybe you can explain to us why they are wrong especially when the dem blowout year of 2006 had Dems at +3?

[latina4dubya]

I think the true gap is 5 to 8 points in this election.

no way... they're not showing any of that in early voting numbers, and early voting was a big Obama/Democrat to-do... it's not happening... no youth vote... nada, enchilada...

[rwilliam]

I think D +10 party ID gap is probably an overestimate. Rasmussen shows D +6.5 in his 6-week average, I think the true gap is 5 to 8 points in this election.

What leads you to believe that the gap in party affiliation will go from +2 for the Democrats in 2006 to +5 or +8 in 2008? Do you really believe that the Democrats are that much more motivated to vote on Tuesday compared to Republicans?

Also, Rasmussen released data yesterday to suggest that Democrats are much more willing to take part in exit polls. However, he must be assuming that the same trend doesn't exist for standard polling. If that assumption is wrong, his assumption about party affiliation (which is then enforced in his polls through weighting) is wrong.

-Bob

[Proudcongal]

Rasmussen shows D +6.5 in his 6-week average

And yet Rasmussen has Obama up only 5 (as of yesterday). What does that tell you?