Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: ubaldus

this poll has to be off

it’s too far off from most of the respectable polls

some polls in 1948 had Truman down 15 points final poll

wonder how the polling technology has changed?


156 posted on 11/02/2008 9:18:56 PM PST by wardaddy (I'm as enthusiastic about Obama as my kinfolks were about Reconstruction)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]


To: wardaddy

“some polls in 1948 had Truman down 15 points final poll

wonder how the polling technology has changed?”

In 1948 there were far fewer polling companies than there are today, and polling stopped weeks before the election. The only poll that had a “final” poll relatively close to election day was Gallup, which showed Dewey beating Truman by 5%. That poll was wrapped up one full week before election day. During that last week of campaigning Truman embarked on a widely publicized populist barnstorming whistle-stop tour around the country during which he blasted the “do nothing” Congress. It resonated, resulting in a late surge towards Truman, which could not be captured by any polls, as the “final” poll had already been handed out a week prior.

The other caveat is that in those days polls were conducted strictly by telephone (as is the case today,) and in those days the only people who actually owned telephones were relatively wealthy, and therefore more likely to back Dewey. In fact, reportedly one of the “errant” polling firms, the Litery Digest, used DMV records to gather phone numbers, making automobile ownership as well as owning a telephone a prerequisite to even be included in their poll, which, again, in those days led to a severe bias towards Dewey, as his supporters were much more likely to own both.


184 posted on 11/02/2008 11:03:09 PM PST by floridagopvoter
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 156 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson