[floridagopvoter]

“some polls in 1948 had Truman down 15 points final poll

wonder how the polling technology has changed?”

In 1948 there were far fewer polling companies than there are today, and polling stopped weeks before the election. The only poll that had a “final” poll relatively close to election day was Gallup, which showed Dewey beating Truman by 5%. That poll was wrapped up one full week before election day. During that last week of campaigning Truman embarked on a widely publicized populist barnstorming whistle-stop tour around the country during which he blasted the “do nothing” Congress. It resonated, resulting in a late surge towards Truman, which could not be captured by any polls, as the “final” poll had already been handed out a week prior.

The other caveat is that in those days polls were conducted strictly by telephone (as is the case today,) and in those days the only people who actually owned telephones were relatively wealthy, and therefore more likely to back Dewey. In fact, reportedly one of the “errant” polling firms, the Litery Digest, used DMV records to gather phone numbers, making automobile ownership as well as owning a telephone a prerequisite to even be included in their poll, which, again, in those days led to a severe bias towards Dewey, as his supporters were much more likely to own both.

[wardaddy]

nice

the lucidity of your posting will get you some scorn here

[Chet 99]

How much has changed since 1996? The polls failed in a big way that year, but no one really remembers because they picked the correct the winner... but the margins were off by a mile.

[Chet 99]

and tell me, since you obviously believe “the polls are right”, which poll? They’re literally all over the map, ranging from Obama +2 to +5 to +13. These kind of differences cannot be chalked up to “statistical noise.”

If the Obama +2 poll is correct, McCain can win the electoral college. He may even win the popular vote, depending on how the undecideds go.

[jveritas]

The majority of the polls where Obama is ahead is equal and in some cases less than the margin of oversampled democrats which means that in most of these polls Obama and McCain split the independents equally. It is that simple.

Anyway polls are meaningless and they have been used by Obama and his media as the most important weapon to depress the Republican base and try to win the elections.

Tomorrow We Vote. Tomorrow We Win.

Vote McCain/Palin.