Ahhh... but a poll at 4% can be incorrect as well. McCain needs to only be within 2% of the popular vote to win the electoral college. The recent state poll releases from Mason Dixon and SuveyUSA suggest an Obama national lead of 2 to 3%, not the blowout number suggested by Gallup.
Yes, McCain has to be in the 2% range within an averaging of all polls. I don’t subscribe to the blowout numbers Gallup has and Zogby will be showing tomorrow morning (a huge McCain day falls off Zogby tonight.) But then again, IBD/TIPP seems at the other end of the spectrum on the low end, also not really believable without any other poll supporting it (GWU/BG is now at 6%.)
It is simply more likely that an averaging of all recent polls, which shows about a 5% to 6% race, is more on the mark. Remember, for a race to be at +6% it really only requires a 3% shift of the electorate from an even outcome, which is not exactly an unreasonable assumption, given that the bad state of the economy is blamed on Bush and Republicans by an unreasonable 2 to 1 margin.