Posted on 11/01/2008 4:44:51 PM PDT by LS
These are words that are, actually, somewhat difficult for me to say. John McCain wasn't my favorite candidate in the primaries. For the better part of eight years, he's been on the wrong side of many crucial issues. So I am not making this prediction based on any love of my former Arizona senator. (And forgive me for a slightly windy post, but I want to provide evidence for my congratulatory note.)
A week ago ("Don't Look Now . . . But There Won't Be an Obama Swag-Bag"), I warned that the numbers in the early voting were not sufficient for the Messiah to win---not in Colorado, not in Florida, and at the time, barely enough to carry California. Since then, the numbers in CO have improved for Obama, but in my view not nearly enough. The numbers in Florida remain daunting for him, and California still is stunningly close in terms of Democrat/Republican splits. Based on that, and some other factors, I predicted there would be no Obama victory, and no Obama "Swag-Bag." (Did anyone see the Obama voter who said the Messiah would pay off her mortgage and pay for her gas!?)
The developments in the past week have, if anything, strengthened my conviction that McCain will be inaugurated next January.
High numbers of undecideds remain in the major national polls. According to Dick Morris, "An undecided has already decided not to vote for Obama." While his claim that undecideds---based on a FOX poll---would go for McCain at a clip of 7:1 is, I think, exaggerated, our own Freeper kesg has made a similar argument. It's all about what he calls the 'death line' of 48% for Obama. In only a couple of polls, with drastic manipulations involving oversampling of Democrats, has Obama crossed that line.
Even National Review's anonymous sage "Obi Wan" doesn't seem to fully appreciate the significance of Obama's inability to "close the deal" at that number.
Then there is the completely un-discussed (save for conservative sites) phenomenon of Rush Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos." This was real, it registered thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands, of temporary Democrat voters who are "coming home." Then there are the disaffected Hillary voters---call them PUMAs, if you will---but they do constitute some percentage of the Democrat electorate that the media has been entirely unwilling to acknowledge. Sources tell me that while MI will still land firmly in Obama's column, his lead there has been cut by shocking levels due almost entirely to a scorched earth policy by the PUMAs and the 527s.
Taken together, however, these two groups of "Democrats" (one faux, one real but angry) are tiny compared to the number of white Democrats who think their party has been hijacked by a terrorist. Again, to the drive-by media, such people don't exist. To admit they were real---let alone in numbers---would destroy the entire mythos of the "surge in voter registrations." I'll say more of this in a moment, but for now, I predict---out on a limb here---that Obama will barely come close to Kerry's 2004 Democrat support number.
What does all this mean for the states? With indies breaking at a far higher rate for McCain than Obama, and with large segments of the Democrats voting Republican, you are likely to see both a very high level of Republican support for McCain (probably in the 90s), combined with a significant level of Dem support and late breaking independents. That breaks down to:
*CO will be Republican by about 2 points.
*NV will be a 2 point or better final for McCain.
*MO will be a 4 or 5 point McCain win.
*NM will end up a 2-point McCain loss.
*We will bring in OH at 2 or 3 points---better than Bush did in 04.
*FL will be a double digit McCain lead. GA and NC won't be that close.
*Here's the clincher: the southern part of VA, combined with the west, will give McCain a 1- to 2-point win in the Old Dominion.
*I won't predict NH, IA, or PA. These are very, very close. If I had to guess, I'd say McCain wins NH, loses PA by razor thin margins---but there's that darned "Bradley Effect," and it is real, and it may well bring PA along.
There are other dynamics at work that could, in fact, blow this open a tad for McCain (i.e., bring in IA, PA, NM, and even WI). First, GOPTrust is running $7 million---that's right, $7 million---in devastatingly effective Jeremiah Wright ads this weekend. McCain's support with the oldsters has been somewhat soft due to claims he'll "cut" Social Security, but these ads will scare the bejeezus out of them, and with good reason.
Second, Zogby's overnight not only had it a 1-point McCain lead, but noted that a very good Obama night was dropping off the rolling three-night average. Now, I know, it's the Zogs special sauce. Isn't IDB or Battleground supposed to be better? Well, it actually depends. I think Zogs has been so volatile because his poll has been extremely sensitive to rapid changes. The others have not been as, well, "emotional." Hence, they've stabilized (Battleground at under 4, IBD Tipp at 4 to 5). However, the McCain team said their polling showed that Obama lost ground with the infomercial. The polls didn't pick it up Friday because of the Halloween effect---families (otherwise known as Republican voters) were out with their kids. I think Zogs picked up that post-infomercial shift. Hello, Dickie Morris.
Battleground's "Battleground State" poll, in a little-reported item, noted that all the battleground states were within a point. It then did not define what these states were (hence, I think FL is excluded) but did include NM and IA. New Mexico? I thought Obama had this locked up in 2006!
Finally, the clincher in all this, as it has always been, is the white Democrat vote. And it was "early voting"---contrary to all conventional wisdom---where Obama lost the election. The drive-bys are obsessed with black turnout early (some indicators STILL don't convince me that it will equal Algore's 2000 level turnout, but I could be wrong on this, and it still won't matter).
The critical element of the "early" black vote that all pundits have missed is reflected in the Morris "7:1" comment. In normal elections, cameras go to polling places and show lines. High turnout, low turnout, but the crowds are almost always mixed. This year, "early" voting, combined with the emphasis on Obama's race (and he has run the most racist campaign since Bull Conner), the images have overwhelmingly been of . . . crowds of black voters.
By itself, this would disturb no one, until Obama begins to talk about "spreading the wealth around," and anyone making over (pick a number) $200,000 will see a "patriotic" tax increase and (feel a chill yet?) saying this will be a "transformational" election.
When the camera shots of the lines of black voters is combined with the rhetoric about "he's going to pay my mortgage and pay for my gas," working-class whites (indeed, everyone) starts to get a little antsy. No doubt, more than a few Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Missouri voters suddenly conjured up the Reconstruction images of "Birth of a Nation." "Do people on welfare really think after November 4 they will be moving into my house?" they ask. The House's hearings on nationalizing 401(k)s has percolated into the electorate, including the oldsters.
If I am proven right on November 5, and John McCain is elected president, it will be due to the incredibly stupid, wasteful ad spending by Obama for four months that was forgotten in the last 72 hours; it will be due the early voting that reinforced in the minds of the middle-class and white voters of all economic backgrounds that when Obama says he wants to "spread the wealth around," he really is coming for MY house.
And above all---let's give credit where credit is due---it will be because of a relentless performance by Sarah Palin, a brilliantly choreographed campaign by McCain's managers, and to the gritty, plodding but oh-so-successful turtle from Arizona.
Oh me too.....I’m so behind McCain/Palin and do Thank The Lord for the PUMA’S and Democrats for McCain....in this election, they are truly a blessing...
“When the camera shots of the lines of black voters is combined with the rhetoric about “he’s going to pay my mortgage and pay for my gas,” working-class whites (indeed, everyone) starts to get a little antsy. No doubt, more than a few Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Missouri voters suddenly conjured up the Reconstruction images of “Birth of a Nation.” “Do people on welfare really think after November 4 they will be moving into my house?” they ask. The House’s hearings on nationalizing 401(k)s has percolated into the electorate, including the oldsters”
This is what our family has been talking about daily...the long lines of blacks. It has scared us thinking oh my gosh...they are in line to make sure that they get their welfare checks!!! MY tax money....I am in that league (whatever it is, I’m there)...I thought we were the only family thinking....”what the heck”...now we know we are not alone...and our family is going together to vote. Now, my problem is this...with early voting, and Obama asking his followers to take off work...is there a chance the Dem/black/ACORN “voters” get in line to just cause chaos...and make it take longer to vote? That, worries me...either way, we are there..and I now feel we will be in line like others who also witnessed the long lines of blacks waiting for my extra tax money....unbelievable. Spread the wealth? this is no patriotic this is wrong, and this is socialistic.
True that. But that’s nowhere near the problem he has: he has to “make it up” in 2-3 states. For example, in OH-—forgetting for a moment the “Bradley Effect” and the PUMAs and “Operation Chaos”-—Kerry lost by 114,000 votes. Well, we’re already tracking better than that. So (for the hell of it) say Obama needs to get 170,000 votes to win OH. Where are they going to come from? There isn’t enough fraud in all of Chicago to steal that many votes.
McCain faced a playing field more severely tilted against him than any since 1980.
Yes, masterfully choreographed, indeed!
Thank you LS — I have been coming up with the same conclusions in my head — except I actually give Pennsylvania to McCain/Palin as well.
And based upon population — Virginia goes for McCain as well for the exact same reason you mentioned (mid, western, and southern Virginia win the state for McCain - not thanks to the mini UN we have in Northern VA) but I believe McCain wins by almost the exact same margin that Webb became a Senator by between 7,000 and 10,000 votes out of 2.3 million cast. I don’t think enough Republicans voted in that election when Allen lost — which will not be the case in this election — the lame-stream-media can call it whatever they want, Bradley effect...but “Virginians” will not elect Obama...no way in hell. Webb won because he simply out “toughed” Allen and that matters here in Virginia. Which is why I think McCain wins In Pennsylvania as well — same reason.
Although I am shocked to say the least about California — how can that be explained? California has been such a lib bastion for the last two decades — solidly. Needless to say, I’m shocked about California.
The majority in California always vote for the welfare candidate.
Which is just like Michigan “he who promises the most pie — wins”...I would love to see Michigan finally go Republican this election...I was actually hoping “the second amendment issues would carry it for McCain.”
Anyway, love the thread — thanks — I believe it is spot on.
when public polls were showing McCain down in OH, our internals had him up
When you say "our internals", who are you referring to? The McCain campaign?
I think Mac will win with higher numbers than you are predicting, I will be shocked if it isn’t a decisive and commanding victory, if not a landslide.
I love your analysis and agree with it. In California, I continue to wonder if McCain will win.
For one thing, we LIKE John McCain out here. He has been a part of our landscape for a long time and we are comfortable with him, warts and all. California tends to be a contrarian state.
For another, the PUMA’s are full throttle here and they are MAD! I don’t blame them.
I would like to note that Obama has done something for me that no one else has ever been able to do: Given me a deep, personal admiration for Bill and Hillary Clinton. Every time I see Bill stick the knife into Obama, I think “Mr. President, you are STILL doing all that you can to defend America!” Maybe that is not his motivation, but that is what comes to me.
Every time I see someone from Hillary Clinton’s personal group surround, protect and defend Sarah Palin, I think of her as a strong, successful woman who is not afraid to help someone else, even someone who might displace her. Kudo’s to the Clintons.
I think this election has changed a lot of people who used to think of themselves as enemies, but now find themselves on one side: Americans doing what is right for our country. Americans who solve problems, not destroy the people who disagree with us. Americans who discuss issues and think of others ahead of themselves.
This election has changed the shape of our landscape, and forced us to think about whether we want our country to be launched into another direction - Socialist, Marxist, with different ethnic and gender groups forced into camps with charges of racism.
Sorry this was long, but I am going to say that I think California has a chance to go for McCain, regardless of the polls. There are a lot of really good people in California, and we don’t like the race/gender issues to divide us the way Obama has forced us to.
Just think what 70 electoral votes would do.
Obama is visiting some states which McCain appears to have locked up. I think O’s doing it to keep the margin of victory for McCain low enough for him to mount a court challenge. Ohio, e.g. If it’s 1-2 points in OH and O would need it to win, there’s no doubt he will challenge the results and demand a recount.
I feel the same way you do, I’m just afraid to go out on the limb and say it. I have long felt that Obama is unelectable. We’ll know soon.
Rob
You know the OH internals, right? Are you factoring in the hidden PUMA effects or the Bradley effects when you say “we’re already tracking better than that”?
Something else I didn't put in the post: the fact that Obama is all "voted out" will BADLY hurt him on election night. I fully expect the networks to call VA for Obama one second after the polls close. Then he loses, and McCain will have to fight for this one. But for the most part, the grinnin' idiots on the tube can only watch . . . RED NUMBERS come in for a lot of the night.
It's like the Arizona Cardinals playing the New England Patriots in their glory days, with a 17-point lead in the third quarter. You knew that wouldn't hold up and were just waiting for the bombs to start falling. TRUST ME, after the first one or two of these patterns emerge, there will be some really glum faces on the tube.
My additional 2 cents:
PA becomes the Florida of 2008. McCain wins it by ~800 votes, Dems demand a recount...
I think you’re right!
Ping me to the victory thread!
The networks will call VA for Obama at one second after the polls close. Get ready for it folks. It will be 100 times worse than FL in 2000. McCain will win, late, but he must be ready to fight.
Today, I asked one of his team, who knows him a little, "Does he have the stones to fight this out when they try to steal it?" and he assured me the Sailor does.
Well, I still think this is a pipe dream. But I will give you this: McCain will DEEPLY benefit from Issue 8. The evangelicals will be out in force, and they may as well vote for Johnny Mac while they are there.
VOTE!
I've got a Walmart Jumbo Size box of Band-Aids at the ready just in case there's any broken glass between me and the voting booth!!
Americans should begin writing the media NOW to explain we’ll fight them and if necessary sue them, make sure they know if they’re fraudulently going to call polls for Obama, they’ll be held accountable this time.
I love the positiveness of this thought. Encouragement is definitely what we need!
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