Posted on 10/27/2008 9:00:13 AM PDT by Brookhaven
Karl Rove made a statement in passing on Fox news got passed over, but as time has passed I've decided it is the unspoken key to this election. Paraphrased:
Whatever Sen. Obama is polling on election day is the percentage of votes he will receive. That's what happened in the primaries. It's important for him to be over 50%. In those states where he is under 50% he will be in trouble.
It took a while for it to sink it, but what he is saying is that the undecided vote will go almost 100% against Obama. When you look at polls, there is a tendency to assume the undecided vote will split for the candidates along the same lines as the decided voters (or that each candiate will get a big portion of the undecided vote. Rove deosn't seem to believe that to be true.
This does seem to make sense to me from one standpoint. Obama by rights should be running away with this race. He's not. The reason seems to be that Obama can't seal the deal with undecided voters. Their undecided because they are unsure about Obama (as opposed to liking both candidates but can't make up their mind about which one to vote for.)
Does anyone have any numbers on what Obama polled in the primary vs. actual votes to backup/disprove Rove's statement?
Anecdotal evidence suggests that it’s quite possible. The “undecided” block has, in some previous elections, broken overwhelmingly toward one candidate, typically the one that is either underfunded or at a disadvantage in media perception (or both), as the “favorite” candidate fails to “seal the deal” prior to election day.
However, there’s no guarantee that that will happen in any given election; it’s just interesting to note that such a thing has happened before.
When I've been reweighting polls based on saner party ID numbers (reweighting to R/D/I of 36/38/26), I've also put in a check to see what would happen if the undecideds broke 2:1 for McCain -- in most cases, it puts McCain clearly in the lead after the party ID question is settled.
That’s the way it happened in the primaries. If polling showed O-48% and H-46% the final would be O-48% and H-52%. She’d pick up all the so-called undecideds.
Of course that was a lie and I'm going to vote for McCain...but I wonder how many others in my area did exactly the same thing......I figured why should I shatter this idiots worldview before the election...when I can hope to enjoy it instead on election night!
Priceless......
Take the IBD/TIPP poll and look at those beautiful undecideds! We only need 7 in 10 to win. Also check out the way the union household vote is breaking. I really think the 46% Obama is getting on that poll is all he is going to get. How sweet is next Tuesday night/Wednesday going to be? 52% McCain, 46% Obama, 1% Barr, 1% Nader.
Look how Obama “finished up” against Hillary. If it weren’t for the Super Delegates and ACORN fraud, Hillary would have mopped the floor with him.
But don’t count out the corruption and fraud the Democrats are committing under our noses. And getting away with it Scott-free.
I have heard Dick Morris (ok, ok, I know...) explain this dynamic as well. When Morris was working for Clinton on his re-election for governor in Arkansas, he got polling data two days before the election that Clinton has slipped below 50%. It was the middle of the night. He got over to the governors mansion, dragged Clinton out of bed and the two went over to the recording studio and cut ads in the middle of the night to address the issue. The ads worked and Slick was reelected.
The 12% undecided number is huge. If Obama goes into the election with it, he loses.
The other thing to consider, for undecideds, is that if “the one” wins, and has a solidly democratic house and senate, he gets every socialist wish granted immediately. However, if McCain is the one holding the veto pen, there is a good system of checks and balances to ensure nothing extreme happens to our culture and tax structure.
Agreed, mathematically there are all kinds of prospective numerical outcomes of electoral vs. popular vote, but my prediction still stands. If Obama gets 49% of the popular vote he will win.
I could be those “undecided” are Hillary voters, still angry with the DNC for throwing them under the bus.
We shall see, but this is the most U’s we have seen in the history of elections. Is it not?
If Rove is right about just the states with more than 50% going to Obama and RCP averages are correct, Obama will end up with 306 EVs.
this describes one of my sisters... she is a Dem and has always voted Dem... but she doesn't like Obama... does not want to vote for him... but to actually come out and say she is going to vote for McCain is just too much for her... she's asking herself, "can i actually vote for a Republican?" i believe she will vote for McCain... her husband, who is a Dem who supported Hillary, has already come out to say he is voting for McCain... this is why i think my sister will actually vote for McCain...
I saw a comment this morning re: undecideds. It made some sense. It said that given the mediawhoring for Obama these last few months while at the same time they’ve been ridiculing and destoying McCain and Palin, anyone that would buy into the Obama claptrap has already done so, and would say so when polled. Which is what Rove says. Obie will get what he polls now.
Gore got 51% and lost so it's possible.
In my opinion, forget the RCP averages. If you have a bunch of polls with all kinds of varying MOE’s and weights, the average of them would be incredibly unreliable. Find a poll with a representative party weight.
For instance, if the dems outnumber the reps in a state by 2%, a poll that gives an 8% dem advantage is insane. I do not see any rational state poll in the battlegrounds that have Obama over 48% except in NM and PA. In fact FL with a +6% poll still has him at 47%.
The RCP average of polls is really screwy in my opinion and will only serve to skew the results based on some bizzarly outlandish polls.
The RCP average should be only based on the results of professional pollsters like Rasmussen, Battleground, IBD/TIPP,and Gallup. MSM polls and until recently Zogby are all propaganda.
Know McCain.
No Obama.
I am not a real Poll Junkie YET !!
But my Qusetion is thisWhat can Obama say or do in the Last week of the campaign that he hasn’t already said or done in the LONG Primary battle with HRC, The General Election & the Carpet Bombing Ads, The Pornographic Lovefest from The Drive By Media!! what can he do top make these “UNDECIDEDS” vote for him ??? Nothing !!! they will break OVERWHELMINGLY for McCain
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