Agreed, mathematically there are all kinds of prospective numerical outcomes of electoral vs. popular vote, but my prediction still stands. If Obama gets 49% of the popular vote he will win.
“If Obama gets 49% of the popular vote he will win.”
In your sceanrio, the EC count will be close, but I don’t think 0bama would win. If he underperforms his poll numbers in the popular vote, he will also underperform in the BG states, meaning all the tossups go to McCain
That said, 0bama is not really polling 49-50% nationally anyway. Those polls are under estimating the GOP turnout. 0bama is in the 46-47 range as IBD/TIPP shows. That is 0bama’s max. I expect McCain will win by ~5pts in the pop vote, and win the EC count by a comfortable margin.