If Rove is right about just the states with more than 50% going to Obama and RCP averages are correct, Obama will end up with 306 EVs.
In my opinion, forget the RCP averages. If you have a bunch of polls with all kinds of varying MOE’s and weights, the average of them would be incredibly unreliable. Find a poll with a representative party weight.
For instance, if the dems outnumber the reps in a state by 2%, a poll that gives an 8% dem advantage is insane. I do not see any rational state poll in the battlegrounds that have Obama over 48% except in NM and PA. In fact FL with a +6% poll still has him at 47%.
The RCP average of polls is really screwy in my opinion and will only serve to skew the results based on some bizzarly outlandish polls.
Well, if you believe that states that were +4 Republican turnout when we were getting our butts whooped in 2006 are going to all of a sudden be +7 Democrat turnout in 2008, then a lot of those polls would be useful for something.