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Hotline/FD Tracking Poll: Obama 47%, McCain 41% (Obama +5 from yesterday)
Real Clear Politics ^ | 10/9/2008 | Real Clear Politics

Posted on 10/09/2008 7:23:35 AM PDT by tatown

Obama 47%, McCain 41%

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: poll
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To: IMissPresidentReagan

Oh yeah...ME TOO! This stuff is killing me...I just can’t imagine what people are thinking...the only thin veil of hope is that Hugh Hewitt said yesterday...that people are mad about the financial melt-down and determined to punish Bush.....but that when they get to the voting booth....there will be NO WAY they can pull the lever for Bama.


61 posted on 10/09/2008 7:47:58 AM PDT by HappyinAZ
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To: HappyinAZ

I hope you and Hugh are right!


62 posted on 10/09/2008 7:49:12 AM PDT by IMissPresidentReagan ("What is wrong with this country? Have we run completely out of bullets?" Tom Griswold of Bob & Tom)
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To: tatown

The negative attacks against McPal from the mediaPUKES from hell have finally taken it’s toll. Please keep the faith and keep praying and FASTING! COURAGE!!


63 posted on 10/09/2008 7:50:14 AM PDT by RoseofTexas
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To: crosslink
Yes and as I remember ,and someone please correct me if I am wrong, but actual voting the last two elections was 37/37/26.

37D, 37R, and 26I was indeed the 2004 distribution. Here is a chart that contains this information for every election since 1972.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/independents/data-party-identification.html

Note that two years ago, in what was a very bad year for the GOP, the breakdown was 37D, 34R, and 29I. Note that the Democrats have never done better than 39% since 1986, have never had more than a 3 point advantage in any election since 2000 (and that happened only once, in 2006), haven't done better than 38% since 2000, and have had 4 point advantages in only two election cycles (Presidential and mid-year) since 1988.

64 posted on 10/09/2008 7:52:42 AM PDT by kesg
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To: se_ohio_young_conservative
Rasmussen 3-day :
Yesterday +6 Obama
Today +5 Obama
65 posted on 10/09/2008 7:52:56 AM PDT by BigEdLB (Let's get serious - there is only one choice - McCain/Palin 2008)
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To: Perdogg

I apologize for jumping the gun here, but something just came to mind....THIS poll wants us to believe that the NEGATIVE attacks from McPAL’s camp is backfiring....BS! KEEP FIRING AND DON’T STOP MCPAL!!


66 posted on 10/09/2008 7:53:07 AM PDT by RoseofTexas
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To: crosslink
but actual voting the last two elections was 37/37/26. It will boil down to the last week like Regan Carter on how the ind go.

Yeh. It is difficult to say in politics. One event, on misstatement, one trip off a stage, one incident, can ruin a political career.

In 2004, Kerry was ahead. He would have won, except that bin Laden released that tape the weekend before the election. That reminded enough voters that terrorism was still an issue for Bush to win.
67 posted on 10/09/2008 7:53:24 AM PDT by TomGuy
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To: o2bfree
No doubt the polls will be predicting McCain at 35% the week before the election!

The day before the election McCain will be dead even - so the pollsters can claim accuracy when he wins in a close race.

68 posted on 10/09/2008 7:53:53 AM PDT by 1Old Pro
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To: IMissPresidentReagan
There aren’t enough antacids out there to get me through the next month.

But there's plenty of whiskey!

69 posted on 10/09/2008 7:56:35 AM PDT by nina0113 (If fences don't work, why does the White House have one?)
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To: se_ohio_young_conservative

I just heard Rasmussen interviewed. He said that over the last 14 days there has been no real movement in the polls.


70 posted on 10/09/2008 7:57:23 AM PDT by byteback
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To: TNCMAXQ
2004 elections, Men: President Bush 55%, Kerry 44%.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5297138

Yet the joke biased polls are telling us that Jeremiah Wright apprentice is going to get more men votes than Kerry got in 2004.

These polls are totally detached from reality and they are total fabrications.

71 posted on 10/09/2008 8:00:34 AM PDT by jveritas (Use the nuclear option against Obama: Jeremiah Wright)
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To: Longstreet63

NO WAY Obama leads among men.

If so, it is confirmation of the pussification of America.

We will be conquered soon, and us conservatives will have to do the fighting.


72 posted on 10/09/2008 8:00:37 AM PDT by Retired Greyhound
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To: se_ohio_young_conservative

Don’t forget Battleground, they’ve gone from O + 7 to O + 3 in two days, and they are one of the most accurate polls in the business. Also, I believe they recently changed their methodology to a model more favorable to the Dems, so that makes this poll even more interesting.


73 posted on 10/09/2008 8:00:42 AM PDT by moose2004 (Drill, Drill, Drill, Drill, Drill, Drill And Then Drill Some More)
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To: tatown

I don’t trust this poll - small daily samples, bouncing all over the place.

I think Gallup, Ras, and R2000 (once you adjust the sample a bit) are three best trackers. None of them is perfect, but together they give a clear enough picture.

Zogby, Hotline and Battleground (which was good, but appears to struggle this year) are second tier.


74 posted on 10/09/2008 8:06:29 AM PDT by ubaldus
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To: tatown
Bottom line is McCain is in trouble - Unless he makes this election about Obama....and show how he is an unacceptable alternative for the WH and to be CinC.

If this election is about McCain and what he can bring....He loses plain and simple. The man stands for very little in terms of philosophy. Outside of standing strong for America and seeing to it that we continue to be on the offensive in the WOT. Which that alone makes him the better choice over Obama.

75 posted on 10/09/2008 8:09:22 AM PDT by SevenMinusOne
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To: DevSix
If this election is about McCain and what he can bring....He loses plain and simple.

I think I know what McCain can bring but he never made his case to the public, except that he is for bi-partisanship.

76 posted on 10/09/2008 8:11:37 AM PDT by E=MC2
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To: TNCMAXQ

If it’s hard to believe it probably is not true. If you were leading would you send Carville out to threaten riots if the Marxist Onada does not win? If you were leading do you think you would be circulating pictures allegedly showing Gov. Palin in stripper mode? If you were leading do you think you’d have ACORN stumbling around all over the place registering the dead, brain dead, homeless and felons?

Most polls show McCain moving up on the Marxist Onada. In many cases these numbers are well within the MOE. This tells me that McCain is actually winning because the polls—almost without exception—have been weighted to favor the Marxist Onada.

If McCain has an aggressive “get out the vote” game plan I believe he will win—in the absense of any other info at this point.

Is there anyone out there that sees it differently?


77 posted on 10/09/2008 8:19:02 AM PDT by dools007
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To: tatown
McCain went from down 1% to down 6% in one day.

How do that many people change their minds in one day?

These polls don't make sense. I'm sure that 43% have decided to vote Pub no matter what. I'm sure 43% have decided to vote Rat no matter what. That leaves 14% undecided. These polls would have you believe that the 14% undecided are bouncing back and forth from candidate to candidate every day.

It defies common sense. My life experience tells me undecideds make up their minds in the last week, or even on the way to the voting booth.

78 posted on 10/09/2008 8:26:12 AM PDT by wmfights (Believe - THE GOSPEL - and be saved)
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To: tatown

My tagline.


79 posted on 10/09/2008 8:42:20 AM PDT by JennysCool (There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and the polls.)
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To: crosslink

41%D, 36%R, 18%: There you go. Why in the hell would a pollster use this crap when in 2004 it was an even split?


80 posted on 10/09/2008 9:11:09 AM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." (Hendrix))
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