Posted on 10/08/2008 12:15:26 PM PDT by pburgh01
I was eating lunch today with the wife on her birthday. The table next to us was a gentleman and a young lady, well dressed, curiously looking at papers spread out over the table. The fellow had a briefcase with a huge McCain\Palin Victory sticker. Wife and I whispered about who they can be. Wife turned around and just had to ask. Well this was a Republican party of Pennsylvania honcho in charge of the Victory campaign for the good guys. We got into an interesting discussion about the debates, polling, etc. This what I heard…. It was very encouraging, the numbers that the campaign has been seeing. Not Zogby, Rassmussen, etc. He said real political analysts think those polls are for mass media consumption and not very accurate. This is straight from the horses mouth folks…McCain campaign is showing nationwide between +2-4 for McCain. I questioned the accuracy saying well all the polls I have seen, blah, blah. He interrupted me, “Like I said ignore those polls , about useless”. He said remember we had this talk , McCain will win Pa by at least 2 points. So buck up fellow soldiers.
Now that I think about it, this could explain the remarks Carville made and the remark by Gergan.
In otherwards, if they are falsely tipping the polls as though Obama is a sure winner, it might incite riots caused by the appearance of a stolen election, even though it wasn’t stolen at all.
Gawd, the MSM are so evil.
She has man hands
Houses burnt to the ground.
And Hank Paulson’s the landlord.
I would trust Rove's numbers over the MSM any day of the week -
Should we ask the moderator to delete this thread? :)
If the Gallup number that McCain leads by 9 points among Independents is even in the ballpark, a 2-4 point overall national lead is pretty much what I would expect with a Dem turnout advantage of 2 points or less, which is very possible this year. You know, I have a hunch that the Dems are not going to have any turnout advantage at all. I haven’t exactly been impressed with what I have seen of Obama’s GOTV operation this year, neither in the primaries nor in Ohio early voting.
I didn’t notice her hands, I was checking out her mouth.
“What about the “Shift to the Democrat Party” that happened in 2006? or was that BS too?”
Here is what happened in 2006. Click on the link, note the partisan breakdown, and then click the “U.S. House Elections” tab.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/independents/data-house.html
Incidentally, given that it was the Independents and not disaffected Republicans who swung the House to the Democrats two years ago — after Independetns essentially split their vote in the previous five election cycles — I would be very worried about my current day job if I was Nancy Pelosi. This same group is now favoring McCain by nine points in Gallup’s internals for the preceding week.
Shhh, you heard it here first.
Gallup intentionally does NOT weight its polls by party ID. This is one of the reasons why it is more volatile than other polls (in both directions).
Gallup separately publishes internals on a weekly basis. These polls essentially show that Obama is winning among Democrats with very few undecided voters, McCain is winning among Republicans with very few undecided voters, and that McCain is winning by 9 points among “pure Independents” with almost half of them still undecided. For comparative purposes, Kerry won this group 49-48 in 2004, while Bush won this group 47-45 in 2000.
If you weight these numbers by actual turnout by party ID based on exit poll data from elections going back to the 1980s and before, it looks like McCain has...a 2-4 point national lead. By golly, the McCain guy in PA may be right!
Here is a very handy link to the exit poll data I just mentioned. Note how stable the party affiliation numbers are from election to election going back at least two decades.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/independents/data-house.html
Thanks.
I am only in favor of shooting the messenger if you happen to be a Steelers fan. :) I hate the friggin' Pittsburgh Steelers. Hey, notice when the ACORN people want to do some serious voter fraud in Las Vegas, they pick the starting lineup of AMERICA'S TEAM, not the stinkin' Pittsburgh Steelers. What a bunch of knuckleheads. Had they picked the starting Steelers lineup instead, they just might have gotten away with it.
Have we considered that if McCain wins the popular vote, that he wins New Jersey’s Electoral votes as well?
I am so happy to read this thread. I believe polls, but they have to be weighted properly. I think they should weight each state based on the actual turnout either in 2004 or 2006 to be credible.
Again, what about the “massive Democrat registration” drive we heard about endlessly throughout the primaries? And what of Obama’s superior organization? ACORN? ACT? Big Labor? Etc.
I’m playing devil’s advocate here, but I’ve seen the new registration numbers for many states, in particular PA, and it doesn’t look good. Now, this may happen every election cycle, but we’re told by the media and the pundits that the Obama campaign is different.
Hmm...I know about the one that alleges that he was once a member of some far left socialist party. What’s the other one?
I haven’t noticed that vaunted Obama GOTV operation during the Democratic primaries. He got killed in big primary states where lots of peopel actually get to vote (e.g. PA, OH, TX, FLA, NJ, NY, CA). He won the nomination by (1) out-organizing Hillary in the caucus states (many of them red states that will stay red) and (2) doing a better job securing Superdelegates once his nomination became “inevitable.” Not only that, but — Bradley effect or otherwise — Obama underperformed his poll numbers in many of these states and others such as NH.
Nor has the Obamaton GOTV machine lit up the state of OH, where they allowed same day registration and voting for a whole week following unsuccessful court challenges by the GOP. The turnout was only about 4,000 votes, far less than the promised 20,000-25,000 early voters that the Obama forces were touting.
Like all things Obama, his GOTV hype is all hat and no cattle.
I am actually a Dolphins fan which is tough to be these days and a UF grad. Interesting parallel between this election year and the 2006 BCS National Champ game where most experts were mailing it in for the Buckeyes. Well we know how that turned out. Why they play the game
Thanks for the info
I think McCain will win Pa. I worry about the other states though.
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