Posted on 10/08/2008 12:15:26 PM PDT by pburgh01
I was eating lunch today with the wife on her birthday. The table next to us was a gentleman and a young lady, well dressed, curiously looking at papers spread out over the table. The fellow had a briefcase with a huge McCain\Palin Victory sticker. Wife and I whispered about who they can be. Wife turned around and just had to ask. Well this was a Republican party of Pennsylvania honcho in charge of the Victory campaign for the good guys. We got into an interesting discussion about the debates, polling, etc. This what I heard…. It was very encouraging, the numbers that the campaign has been seeing. Not Zogby, Rassmussen, etc. He said real political analysts think those polls are for mass media consumption and not very accurate. This is straight from the horses mouth folks…McCain campaign is showing nationwide between +2-4 for McCain. I questioned the accuracy saying well all the polls I have seen, blah, blah. He interrupted me, “Like I said ignore those polls , about useless”. He said remember we had this talk , McCain will win Pa by at least 2 points. So buck up fellow soldiers.
State party polling has to be more accurate. They know the districts, turnout history and margins from previous elections. They are working with actual data from 2006. National pollsters are divining internals to produce results that please the leftist media outlets paying for the polls.
Excellent post!
Look at it this way, Soldier. Bush lost PA by 2.5 points last time, and he won nationally by over three million votes. If McCain wins PA by just one point, I would be McCain's margin could be at or near four million. (Just completely guessing here, not crunching any numbers at all.)
are there equal amounts of people who identify with each party? what is the current ratio of likely voters who vote democrat to those who vote Republican?
Short answer. Nobody with any brains takes the polls seriously, that is why the campaigns spend so much time and money conducting their own polling.
For those wondering if this thread is bunk, ask yourself where McCain/Palin are today. Answer: Bethlehem PA.
Where will Gov. Palin be on Saturday? In Murtha's backyard, with his opponent Bill Russell, in Johnstown PA.
oh, please let murtha be retired this year........come on Sarah........get in there for his opponent.
Gosh, I hope you’re right. The Gallup and Rasmussen numbers are not encouraging today. Perhaps there is something to this since it seems that there is a renewed focus on Pennsylvania.
On a side, unrelated note...I am reaching my boiling point regarding the sneering condescention directed at Sarah Palin. David Brooks is a d-bag.
Yes the numbers are about equal, they do this every four years. Then notice that as we get closer to the election they move the numbers where they should be.
Recently when they wanted to take away McCain’s bounce they did this same thing.
Rush brings this up every so often, but there have been recent threads here on the internals of different polls.
One poll over sampled blacks by 10 points and this poll had O up 6-7 points.
Whenever you read a poll look for the internals.
And what the MSM has Pa solid blue. Hehe, man this is gonna be delicious November 5th. I am worried about massive civil unrest 1968 type riots everywhere.
Bill Russell still has an uphill battle. Bush took 48% in that district (PA-12) four years ago. But Russell has raised a LOT of money - over $2 million. And Murtha's had some BAD publicity recently. And now Bill gets to appear with the GOP's superstar in Murtha's backyard. He's already confirmed he'll be there. It only remains to be seen how much exposure he'll get from the rally. I hope it's a LOT!
As I have been saying for a number of years.
Renewed? Negative. This has been an intentional focus on the Keystone State for months.
ping!
Based on our earlier chat thought you’d like reading this thread.
I’ve been telling folks that for months... I guess I need to carry more papers around and put a sticker on my briefcase.
Fauxbama cannot win PA, he never could. The dems lost the White House the minute they picked him as the nominee. He can’t win PA, and he’s going to lose other rust belt states too. He can’t win the White House without PA, let alone losing a WI or a MN as well.
I have been nothing but optimistic and know we’re winning and we will win in a landslide.
Every time I dissect a poll I see they have to bend over backwards to get Obama ahead.
Polls are the the new MSM, instead of giving us people to mock, they give us numbers.
There’s lies, there’s damn lies, then there’s “statistics”, then there’s “polls”.
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