Posted on 10/04/2008 10:03:21 AM PDT by jveritas
Below is a polling accuracy report card showing the accuracy of the polling firms were in the 2008 primaries all the way up to North Carolina and Indiana primaries. Rasmussen ranks number 20.
Then you must be elated over their September poll.
http://www.uc.edu/news/NR.asp?id=8832
McCain garners 48 percent support in the poll of likely voters compared to 44 percent for Obama, with a large percentage of voters remaining less than fully committed as of early September.
Here’s the link Skippy. This link will take you to RASMUSSENS SITE where RASMUSSEN compares his final predictions to the final results. Now, you may want to stop before you make a complete fool of yourself. Again, this is RASMUSSEN comparing his predictions to the actual outcome.
State-by-State Actual Results vs. Rasmussen Reports™ Polls
Individual states results:
Minnesota:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0782fede-2757-4c86-9479-f84f02afc9fb
Oklahoma:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=86598529-e058-48fa-94b7-9d1b692f12e8
Ohio:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=f59524ea-868f-443b-bd5f-b96bf98b6e79
New Mexico;
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3003b182-f468-4c5f-960e-f0d72672cdac
Indiana: Has McCain ahead
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3003b182-f468-4c5f-960e-f0d72672cdac
You’re too dumb to even have an argument with.
Rasmussen stopped polling in non-battleground states early September and yet you cite these as if they have some relevance.
In Battleground states.. states where every polling outfit polled up to the day of election, Ramussen was KING.
Get over it Joe Biden.
LOL!!! Okay Obama, apparently you can’t read and/or comprehend.
Rasmussen’s Final Poll / Actual Result / Difference
Fla, Bush +3 / Bush +5, Diff 2
Ohio, Bush +4 / Bush +2.5, Diff 1.5
PA, Kerry +2 / Kerry +2.5, Diff 0.5
Wisc, Kerry +1 / Kerry +0.4, Diff 0.6
Iowa, Bush +2 / Bush +0.7, Diff 1.3
Minn, Kerry +1 / Kerry +3.5, Diff 2.5
Mich, Kerry +4 / Kerry +3.4, Diff 0.6
MO, Bush +5 / Bush +7.2, Diff 2.2
NM, Bush +4 / Bush +0.8, Diff 3.2
Nev, Bush +2 / Bush +2.6, Diff 0.6
Colo, Bush +5 / Bush +4.7, Diff 0.3
NH, Kerry +2 / Kerry +1.3, Diff 0.7
Average Difference 1.33
Pull your head out of your ass for 2 minutes please. These are the facts stupid.
“That’s why polls are not definitive. SurveyUSA says it’s not so while “
Surveyusa doesn’t say that at all, your links don’t mention boomers or a category for their age group. Boomers are the 44 to 62 age group.
I think you have a comprehension problem. This is my last post to you on this subject.
I posted that Rasmussen correctly called the states. I then showed where he was off. I never said anything about him being off one way or the other in the percentage between Bush and Kerry.
Did Rasmussen predict Alabama Bush 53%? Yes or no?
Was the actual result 63% for Bush? Yes or no?
My post/question to another FReeper had absolutely NOTHING to do with the percentage between the two candidates.
The next University of Cincinnati poll will tell us if Obama has really gained ground in Ohio. My belief is that Obama will ramp up the black vote in Ohio’s biggest cities (Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Dayton, Toledo, Akron), but lose ground among older, white Democrats in the suburbs and rural areas. Appalachian areas of the state in eastern and southeastern Ohio made a big difference for Bush in 2004 and Obama is hardly the Democrat to flip them back. I believe white women, who have supported both Bill Clinton and George Bush, are also more likely to support McCain because of Palin’s presence on the ticket.
“Operation CHAOS!
I do the same when a pollster calls me.”
Interesting, I never get polled, must be because I am on a no-call list.
I wonder how accurate these phone polls are considering that certain demographics are probably more likely to be on a no-call list.
Interesting, I never get polled, must be because I am on a no-call list."The National Do Not Call Registry does not limit calls by political organizations, charities, or telephone surveyors."I wonder how accurate these phone polls are considering that certain demographics are probably more likely to be on a no-call list.
National Do Not Call Registry - Who May or May Not Call?
I'm on the national registry and in 2006 it was crazy in the last few weeks; I got calls almost everyday from pollsters and automated political messages. So far, in the 2008 campaign I have only gotten a few calls.
From Fordham University research:
Analisis of poll estimates from 23 polling organizations: four of these polls appear to have overestimated McCain support (indicated with a * below), while most polls (17) overestimated Obama strength. Pre-election projections for two organizations’ final polls—Rasmussen and Pew—were perfectly in agreement with the actual election result (**).
The following list ranks the 23 organizations by the accuracy of their final, national preelection polls(as reported on pollster.com).
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