Posted on 09/25/2008 3:19:10 PM PDT by TitansAFC
Just wondering. Rasmussen Reports releases their rolling Party ID breakdown for the national polls (recently added Democrats), but requires a subscription to get state breakdowns.
I ask because his state breakdowns, whatever they are, in just the last two weeks have shown some WILD swings.
Now Rasmussen has Barack pulling away in PA, ahead in NC, starting to pull away in CO, pulling away in the Great Lakes states, pulling Ohio to a tie and closing the gap to a near tie in Florida. Oh, and he has Obama almost within the margin of error in South Carolina and statistically tied in IN.
Over the past two weeks, no state has been stable, and swings have been consistently wild.
So if I'm reading right - although his Balance of Power page uses other polls - Rasmussen Reports now has Obama winning by several million votes nationally, taking all of the swing states except for statistical ties in OH, VA, IN, and Florida (and tied in NH), winning A MAJORITY in NC, making SC a swing state, etc. etc.
I need to see some of the damn party breakdowns in these state polls if anyone subscribes, please. I am having a hard time believing that McCain is going to struggle to get 150 EVs, which is the Rasmussen math right now.
Excedllent points...I pray to God Rasmussen is wrong...
As I have traveled, I have noted a distinct drop from the Sarah Palin buzz times. I’ve noted that the saturation advertising is taking effect, as people are parroting Sen. 0bama talking points and Saturday Night Live skits. I’m not so sure the polls are far off, and it’s important for us to remember 2006....the time is now to get active and help out the battleground states.
A financial crisis of this severity may cause people to think and act irrationaly. After his initial verbal stumble, John McCain has handled it very well, and I think there’s a good chance he will recover the lead before November 4th.
I cannot believe that he has Sununu up in NH and Dole down in NC by 6. No way.
LS did some god analysis the other day.
What say you?
The base was disappointed in 2006. No motivation or enthusiasm and the independents who bothered to vote went for the Rats after Foley, and host of other “corruption” issues parroted by the MSM.
That is not the case this time. Just check out any events that McCain/Palin does compared to Obama and we wont even mention Biden who barely gets anyone to his crowds.
We have quite a few factors helping us out that is keeping this election in our favor even though Nobama should be running away with this by now.
But we still have to fight it as its 10 points behind and get the GOTV out.
Also, IMHO the pollsters are all looking at this as a pre-convention election where the base was unenthusiastic, unmotivated and independents didnt really have a reason to vote for the old guy.
The Palin selection along with McCain’s ad campaigns have changed that dynamic and think we will be pleasantly surprised on Nov 5th.
http://www.democratandchronicle.com/article/20080925/NEWS01/80925009/1002/NEWS
Go figure.
The Survey USA had McCain up by 3 in NC saying that only %88 of the GOP was supporting McCain. This is BS.
It’s time for people around here to stop getting excited/bummed/depressed about every single poll that isn’t positive for McCain/Palin. A certain percentage of “good” polls (well-designed, well-executed) will still give wacky results. Then you will have some polls that aren’t well-designed, well-executed) whether deliberately or negligently that will give wacky results.
There’s no reason to believe Rasmussen has lost his way. There is, however, an interesting questions as to how/why his daily tracking poll is showing such stability and yet his state polls are anything but stable.
“Zogby, of all people, was quoted today as saying he thought the trend was for a McCain landslide.”
That’s a shock.
Maybe he accidentally let slip what all the left-wing pollsters are saying behind closed doors.
We have another factor, over and above the competitive polling between Ras and Mason-Dixon and the others, namely the lag from national polls to state level polls (which always seems to be about a week).
At any rate, that's why I don't accept any one poll, but always look at realclearpolitics' average. There, McCain is one state short of winning (CO), and is just a couple points down in PA and MI in the cumulative polling.
Finally, we've debated the "Wilder/Bradley" effect, which I have dismissed for most states (but NOT Ohio). However, I'm thinking it might be real---because I was reminded that here in OH in 2006, Ken Blackwell was only down in the worst of the polls 12% and in the best, 5%, yet he lost by 25%! Now, that's some serious Bradley effect going on.
I totally agree with your post, but I had to smile when I read “get the GOTV out” which, translated, means “get the get out the vote out.”
Heh heh...
Ed
Rasmussen and Gallup sauce their polls depending on what they THINK the mood of the public is. Not exactly science. They assumed Barack should get a bump from the economic crisis so they change their dem/rep weighting to reflect that. The problem is that while they did that in their state polls, they now know that their assumptions were false which is why Gallup has McCain/Obama tied among registered voters. The only way for this to happen is for McCain to get a significant advantage the last few days with independents. And I’ll bet that’s exactly what happened.
Zogby is Rush’s Pollster. He correctly predicted the DUI would cause Bush to lose the popular vote to Gore but still win the election.
Calm down and relax.
Rasmussen was right-on 7 out of 14 times and he is exploiting the seven times he was correct. Even Rush fell into his numbers at one time. Never again.
His methadology is just as flawed as the rest of them.
Hell, think about yourself. How many times have you changed your mind on something? I do it all time.
One last thing. Pay attention to the polls that admit, LIKELY VOTERS. They are rare. Other than that, these polls are making money selling statistics from random, random calls where they want.
Screw the polls for now.
I’m in SC - it’s safely in the McCain camp. Obama will easily win the Black vote, but that’s not enough to take the state.
I knew it was over for Bush The Elder when I saw White people with Clinton/Gore bumper stickers. You don’t see that happening for Obama except in college parking lots.
Not me. I subscribed to Rasmussen in 2000 and was burned so bad that I never went back.
IMHO Rasmussen is weighting way too far to the Dem side and history will prove my assertion.
I know it’s tough, but everyone needs to learn to ignore these state by state polls. They are notoriously unreliable. If you compare a national poll with a state’s actual voting history in recent Presidential elections, you will have a very good idea which way that state is going.
In 2004, Bush carried NC by 12 points, which translates to 9 points plus more GOP than Bush’s national margin of victory in the popular vote. It is a very red state. The only way Obama can be competitive in NC is if he is about 10 points ahead nationally. Regardless of what some snapshot poll by Rasmassen’s robophones says.
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