Posted on 09/20/2008 11:18:25 AM PDT by grey_whiskers
(snip) It's only a point, but again we see McCain's numbers in this group went up.
So, put it all together, and in the past week Obama has stayed steady or lost support in every party identification group, yet Gallup says his overall support went up four points. And McCain stayed steady or went up in every party identification group, yet we are supposed to accept the claim that his overall support went down by four points? Anyone have an answer for how that is even possible?
Well, actually I do. There is one, and only one, possible way that such a thing can happen mathematically. And that way, is that Gallup made major changes to the political affiliation weighting from the last week to now. Gallup has significantly increased the proportional weight of Democrat response and reduced the weight of Republican response. (snip>
(Excerpt) Read more at wizbangblog.com ...
On another point about polling that I’ve been wondering about. What percent of Obama’s overall national support in these polls comes from Africa-Americans? It has to be several percentage points. But in the electoral college isn’t much of the Black vote mooted? I mean, New York will go a little more overwhelmingly Dem because of heavy Black turnout (maybe) and so will Maryland. So will Illinois. The South will go Republican, but maybe by a smaller margin because of heavy Black turnout. But none of this makes a hoot of a difference in the electoral college. Heavier Black support could make a difference in Michigan or Penn. and give those states to Obama, but he should have them anyway. So instead of oversampling Blacks, as some pollsters admit to doing, shouldn’t they be undersampling them simply because they live in states that will go the way they always go in spite of heavier Black turnout for Obama?
Exactly. They do this every election. As the election nears they start making adjustments so they don't look like incompetent fools. Very soon you will see Barry back in the blue states trying to regain ground among the Democrats and Independents.
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CAPITAL GAINS TAX |
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MCCAIN |
0% on home sales up to $500,000 per home (couples). McCain does not propose any change in existing home sales income tax. |
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OBAMA |
28% on profit from ALL home sales. (How does this affect you? If you sell your home and make a profit, you will pay 28% of your gain on taxes. If you are heading toward retirement and would like to down-size your home or move into a retirement community, 28% of the money you make from your home will go to taxes. This proposal will adversely affect the elderly who are counting on the income from their homes as part of their retirement income.) |
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DIVIDEND TAX |
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MCCAIN |
15% (no change) |
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OBAMA |
39.6% - (How will this affect you? If you have any money invested in stock market, IRA, mutual funds, college funds, life insurance, retirement accounts, or anything that pays or reinvests dividends, you will now be paying nearly 40% of the money earned on taxes if Obama becomes president. The experts predict that 'Higher tax rates on dividends and capital gains would crash the stock market, yet do absolutely nothing to cut the deficit.') |
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INCOME TAX |
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MCCAIN (no changes) |
Single making 30K - tax $4,500 |
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OBAMA (reversion to pre-Bush tax cuts) |
Single making 30K - tax $8,400 |
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INHERITANCE TAX |
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MCCAIN |
- 0% (No change, Bush repealed this tax) |
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OBAMA |
Restore the inheritance tax Many families have lost businesses, farms, ranches, and homes that have been in their families for generations because they could not afford the inheritance tax. Those willing their assets to loved ones will only lose them to these taxes. |
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NEW TAXES PROPOSED BY OBAMA |
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New government taxes proposed on homes that are more than 2400 square feet. New gasoline taxes (as if gas weren't high enough already) New taxes on natural resources consumption (heating gas, water, electricity) New taxes on retirement accounts, and last but not least....New taxes to pay for socialized medicine so we can receive the same level of medical care as other third-world countries!!! |
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I think it's a great deal like the business enterprise that loses just a little on EVERY sale but makes it up on volume.
I'm neither a statistician nor a mathemitician. Still, there is so much of the "internal" numbers of all of these polls that make zero sense while looking at the overall bottom line. Or, maybe it's the other way around.
Let's see if I understand this. In the last two presidential elections, even after all the votes of the deceased who voted for Democrats were counted, the electorate was split pretty much down the middle.
This year, going into the silly season we saw McCain down by four or five points. The Palin announcement broke him out of his rut by energizing his traditional support. So, 50-50 once again.
Now, we have white women coming to McCain, not at the margin, but from the core.
We have Hillary lemmings crossing over, but likely, only at the margin. Still, there are some.
We have married folk i.e. traditional values people shifting to McCain AND threatening to turn out in large numbers.
The young voters, assuming there really are lots of them, started out as Obama groupies, but are seeing the light in ever greater numbers. That may not matter because the energized youth has a habit of losing energy the closer we get to voting day. Still, in Minnesota, where I haunt, I see lots of Paul supporters still showing up at Republican events.
Independents and the mushy middle are breaking for McCain 60-40.
Oh, yes, we have to factor in that 5% of liberal Democrats who traditionally vote Democrat, but this year will vote for McCain because they are racists. (I know, I know, if traditional Republicans were not racists, this year they would make an exception and vote Democrat.)
Anyway, you get where I am going with this. Subset after subset is starting to pick up the chant, "McCain, McCain, Palin, Palin!" Yet McCain is simply losing ground. The answer has to lie in those seven or eight states that were visited by Obama but can't be polled...you know...states fifty-one through fifty-seven or -eight...where Obama campaigned. Then there are those other two where they wouldn't let him go.
Still, the polls make no sense. In the end there is just one poll that counts. If McCain is to win, he only needs enough voters in enough states to overcome all those dead voters and still amass 270 electoral votes.
When a democrat calls another democrat on the phone to get out his vote, what's that democrat going to say when asked who he'll vote for? There's a lot of pressure to say, "Obama."
The election will be very tight.
The left is desperate, and fighting with desperation.
The “Bradley Effect” will be more than negated by the “Chicago Effect.”
Every vote, every dollar, every phone call, every bumper sticker will count.
I think this guy is dead wrong. Negative campaigns work. Palin has been bruised by all the pounding, and so has McCain.
This is going to be a tough fight to the bitter end.
The Wilder/Bradley effect will be offset by the Chicago Effect.
The debate moderators will bail Obama out just as the ABC interviewers did on Muslim faith and who does the dirtiest advertising. Plus the MSM commentators will chorus Obama’s knockout of McCain in the debates regardless of how badly McCain kicks O’s dupa.
I think we all learned a lesson in 2000 when exit polls showed Gore as having won already. GOPs in Florida didn’t bother to vote later in the day because they thought it wouldn’t matter. Other things like that.
Bottom line, we have to vote no matter when, no matter what every poll says. Pay no attention to the evil man behind the curtain.
It's the usual dirty bag of tricks going on - the media WANTS the Obomination to win and they are trying to demoralize or discourage the Republican voters. Ignore them and push McPain/Palin. We cannot have the Obomination in the WH.
Do you think the Bradley factor is essentially a thing of the 1980s and no longer viable?
You are right, Oprah’s Obama has already been certified as the winner of all the debates!
“The Wilder/Bradley effect will be offset by the Chicago Effect.
A little help,what is the Chicago Effect?
I noticed earlier today on a Rasmussen thread showing Zerobama up by one percentage point, he listed his polling data and the number of Dems polled for that sampling was significantly higher than the number of Republicans polled.
I think there's some manipulation going on amongst all of the pollsters to keep it close and maintain the public's interest.
Just a guess, though...
Interesting article.
Smoke and mirrors and most Americans are not falling for it and will vote, particularly for Sarah irrespective of what the polls say.
It's really demeaning to the max for these pollsters to presume that people vote just because they tell them who is leading.
i believe that refers to the votes of those who list a cemetery as their place of residence
What’s happened to Gallup> Weren’t George, Sr., and George, Jr., known for their personal integrity? I think George, Sr., was Democrat but don’t know about George, Jr., maybe “Independent”?
One thing to remember, is that while some people change their mind, and there are a notable number of whimsical voters, that the biggest swing is in who bothers to go vote.
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