Gallup Daily: Obama Now Leads McCain by 5 Points

Gallup ^ | 9/19/08 | Gallup

[tatown]

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Tuesday through Thursday finds Barack Obama with a five percentage point lead over John McCain in the presidential preferences of registered voters, 49% to 44%.

[AHerald]

I can’t wait for the debates. Too much media filtering going on now. The debates, like the conventions, will give the candidates a chance to address the voters directly. I like our chances better then.

Yup. It's all about the debates. The Emperor of Uh naked in the spotlight without his teleprompter.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

Definitely. But you may see a little movement towards Obama in the short term, just as the state polls may show a dip for McCain that coincides with the one in the national polls.

The 527’s haven’t even gotten started yet and I think they’re going to be very effective against Obama. He is more vulnerable on guns than any candidate I’ve ever seen.

That aside, McCain’s new commercials and strong tone will make the lightweight Obama act like an idiot like he did on TV this morning and bait him into reflexive lies that even the media can’t ignore.

I put more stock in PA and WI than I do in MI personally, but McCain is good at pandering to the socialist leaning auto workers, so that could help him a lot.

There’s a lot of time left in this election...if we can keep McCain from reverting to RINO, I like our chances. :)

[NYC Republican]

If we’re down 5, we’re down in the electoral college. It’s that simple

[Dawn531]

In any case, the next president inherits a huge mess. I almost wish Obama gets to deal with it, but he will use it as an excuse for New Deal 2.0, and we all know how New Deal 1.0 worked.

I told my husband if it wasn't for SCOTUS justices, and economic repercussions, Obama as President would have some entertainment value.

As far as New Deal 2.0, interesting statement coming from Paulsen, Dodd, etc. about their bailout and meeting last night. The statement was made that this bailout would curtail tax cuts, and spending increases for the next administration. I wonder after all Obama has promised as far as tax cuts for the middle class and spending increases, I wonder if he'll change his message.

[AU72]

I still think the debates are critical in deciding this election,

The debates, especially the first one, start 'locking in' the vote. Once that cement settles only a 'deus ex machina' or real October Suprise will shift many votes.

[Darren McCarty]

As I said when we were up 8, it's still early.

What we all need to do more than anything else is sign up to work the polls on election day, either as a poll worker, poll watcher, poll challenger, or on the legal team. Everybody here should do that.

[paul544]

Well the market was up 400 points Thursday. So if it didn’t help him then, won’t help him now.

McCain lost the momentum. Debates could swing it back in our favor, or dig a bigger hole. Time will tell.

[NYC Republican]

bingo!

[bcatwilly]

If we’re down 5, we’re down in the electoral college. It’s that simple Agree completely, except I think it is wise to use some "common sense" analysis in this race too. And I don't mean any blind party loyalty like thinking Bob Dole had a prayer against Clinton, rather asking yourself what you really think the state of the race is given all of the available data, actions the campaigns are taking, what states they are travelling to etc.

Having said that, IMO there is no way that Obama wins by 5% if the election were held today. In fact my personal sense is that it would be a strap into your seat and be terrified as the votes come in late into the night, with somewhere like Ohio being key.

Now if Obama "performs well" in the public eye in all of the debates, and poll trends continue poor up until election day then I may buy a 5% gap.

[TonyInOhio]

If we’re down 5, we’re down in the electoral college. It’s that simple

Is down 5 in the Gallup daily track the same as tied in the Rasmussen daily track? Who do you choose to believe? The poll that looks worse or the poll that looks better?

[ubaldus]

Each pollster has to be eveluated based on their model. Gallup is ok, if you want to get a fast snapshot of the race.

Also, all polls I looked at show that McCain’s lead among white voters is down to 13-16% range. This is definitely not enough, a simple arithmetic shows he needs to be at least 19% ahead among whites to even make it close.

[DustyMoment]

Gallup Daily: Obama Now Leads McCain by 5 Points

Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!!!!

Talk about moonbat wishful thinking . . . . . . . .

[Retired Greyhound]

Grand Mufti, LOL...hasn’t he already crowned himself that?

I figure we have 45 days to buy as many guns a possible before Obama bans them. We are going to need all the firepower we can get. The citizens of the US will probably have to fight the wars from here on out, perhaps on this soil.

Also, if Obama trys to turn the military against those of us who resist his communist takeoever, we will have to fight back. I’m sure that some portion of the military will remain loyal to President Obama, but many of the red-blooded soldiers will not. Most of our troops were raised by good, God-fearing, red-blooded conservatives who will undoubtedly be part of the rebellion. I don’t expect our sons and daughters to turn on us.

If Obama does win, we will have to do our best to preserve the constitution so that there will still be elections, and Palin and Jindal can take him on.

The above, of course, assumes that President Obama doesn’t allow Iran to obtains nukes (or just go ahead and give them nukes). It also assumes that Russia and China don’t take the golden opportunity of a communist in office to try for an American takeover, peacefully or hostily.

Like I said, vote for McCain and hope for the best.

[Liberty Valance]

Is this what happens when a huge metro area like Houston gets taken out of the picture?

[AHerald]

Debates aren’t always critical. 2004 they were not. this year they are.

Good post SoulSeeker. But I'd take some issue with the claim about the 2004 debates. Recall that Bush had what was widely viewed as a disastrous 1st debate. There was a shift toward Kerry in the aftermath of that debate. Granted there was no game changing "debate moment" in 2004 like we saw in 76, 80, 88, or 92, but if Bush hadn't stopped the bleeding with very solid performances, not to mention avoiding any serious gaffes, in the two final debates, a very close race might have tipped toward Kerry. It's all speculation, obviously. But Bush's debate performance, I'd argue, was critical to securing victory.

[AngelesCrestHighway]

Teleprompter Barry is going down!......

[ubaldus]

>> I told my husband if it wasn’t for SCOTUS justices, and economic repercussions, Obama as President would have some entertainment value.

Scalia and Kennedy are not planning to retire any time soon, and if Stevens/Ginsburg are replaced by younger lib judges, this will make very little difference.

Japan was running 7-8% gdp deficits during their financial crunch. For us, that would be $1 trillion deficit. I guess we have a good chance of seeing it with Pres. Obama.

[IndianPrincessOK]

I love it too! I watched Obama fumble today in his faux news conference and he definitely looks frazeled. These polls are just picking up the beating of the stock market. ONCE Fox gets the BOR and Hannity and more coverage of Obamas entangledment with F and F....it will relax. Overal from the polls today there are 2 tied, 1 that only shows Obama up 1 and 1 that shows him up 5 by RV. Once the debate starts next week....we are and will be in great shape.

General Election: McCain vs. Obama
RCP Electoral Map | Changes in Electoral Count | Map With No Toss Ups | No Toss Up Changes
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread
RCP Average 09/09 - 09/18 — 47.3 45.4 Obama +1.9

Gallup Tracking 09/16 - 09/18 2796 RV 49 44 Obama +5

Hotline/FD Tracking 09/16 - 09/18 915 RV 45 44 Obama +1

Rasmussen Tracking 09/16 - 09/18 3000 LV 48 48 Tie

Battleground Tracking 09/11 - 09/18 800 LV 47 47 Tie
CBS News/NY Times 09/12 - 09/16 LV 49 44 Obama +5
Quinnipiac 09/11 - 09/16 987 LV 49 45 Obama +4
Pew Research 09/09 - 09/14 2307 LV 46 46 Tie
Reuters/Zogby 09/11 - 09/13 1008 LV 47 45 Obama +2
Newsweek 09/10 - 09/11 1038 RV 46 46 Tie

See All General Election: McCain vs. Obama Polling Data

Intrade Market Prices for General Election: McCain vs. Obama
Obama McCain
Intrade Real Time Quotes (See More Data)

[NYC Republican]

Here's how McCain ca do get the momentum back... Very simple...

Let the masses know exactly what's going on... Expose the MSM... Show snippet after snippet examples... When he's interviewed on 60 minutes, hold up the NY Times and show the country the blatant partisanship.. hold up US weekly and show the blatant differences... At the same time, tell America that ...

while the MSM is focused on these bullshit "scandals" of Palin's, they ignore Ayers, Wright, Rezko, etc...

While they harp on Palin's ability to lead (and stress that she's running for VP, and he has no intention of going anywhere), they casually ignore ZeroHussein's obvious lack of experience on anything...

This would have the following effects

1. Fire up the base like nothing else before

2. Convert indies to our side, once they see, in naked view, what the MSM's been doing

3. Put the MSM's credibility (or lack thereof) each time they do a hit piece on our side. Americans will be looking for it, and will take notice going forward

Newt's been great at pounding some of these themes, but in an age where many Americans get their news from 10 second MSM soundbites, or newspaper headlines, this would be huge to get the message directly to the people...

There's one big BUT...

McCain has to want it badly enough...

[Maceman]

and we all know how New Deal 1.0 worked.

Well, maybe most of us here do, but unfortunately, most Americans have been taught, and now accept as fact, that the New Deal ended the Depression, and that FDR saved capitalism from its inherent fatal excesses.