[NYC Republican]

If we’re down 5, we’re down in the electoral college. It’s that simple

[bcatwilly]

If we’re down 5, we’re down in the electoral college. It’s that simple Agree completely, except I think it is wise to use some "common sense" analysis in this race too. And I don't mean any blind party loyalty like thinking Bob Dole had a prayer against Clinton, rather asking yourself what you really think the state of the race is given all of the available data, actions the campaigns are taking, what states they are travelling to etc.

Having said that, IMO there is no way that Obama wins by 5% if the election were held today. In fact my personal sense is that it would be a strap into your seat and be terrified as the votes come in late into the night, with somewhere like Ohio being key.

Now if Obama "performs well" in the public eye in all of the debates, and poll trends continue poor up until election day then I may buy a 5% gap.

[TonyInOhio]

If we’re down 5, we’re down in the electoral college. It’s that simple

Is down 5 in the Gallup daily track the same as tied in the Rasmussen daily track? Who do you choose to believe? The poll that looks worse or the poll that looks better?