Posted on 09/13/2008 10:21:03 PM PDT by TomEwall
I considered the states that Rasmussen has listed as leaning or toss-ups and used the "Last" values for Intrade to determine the probability of a given state being won. Doing a weighted average, I came with McCain's expected value to be 268.74, which is just under 269, a tie.
Doing a Monte Carlo simulation I came up with the probability of a McCain win being 49.4%, a similar result to the weighted average.
Intrade has Obama as having a bit less than a 60% chance of winning each of these states. If the chance were exactly 60% for each state, then Obama would have a 36% chance of winning both. In this scenario, McCain would have a 64% chance of winning the election, and Obama a 36% chance.
This got me interested in what would happen if I considered more states. So far I'm just considering 12, which are CO, FL, IA, MI, NH, NM, NV, OH, OR, PA, VA and WI, the states which Rasmussen has as either "Leaning" or "Toss-Up".
Considering the probabilities of these states, the race is extremely close to dead even (which surprised me, as I was expecting McCain would be the more likely winner). McCain winds up with a 49.4% chance of winning.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Honestly...I’m a union guy....there are alot of union people they are counting on that wont vote for a black man....ever....for any reason...they all yell “hell yea”...until they get in the voting booth...
I’ve been reminding guys that Todd is a stealworker, oil work is union work...etc etc..
Think being a union guy on FR is hard?...try being a conservative in a Union...
*grin*
You are definitely on the front lines of the conservative movement. I grew up in Michigan and I agree with you, a lot of UAW workers will never vote for a black guy, especially if they tired to get a son in the union and saw the spot given to someone else for “diversity”.
I know this may be a dumb question, but how in the heck do I change my screen name? I like Bush and all, but I would like to change it.
Hey everyone, just wanted to let you know I have a poll that needs some input. Thanks and please leave comments.
http://poll.pollcode.com/LoC_result?v
Have you heard of the “Bradley effect”? This refers to just the behavior you’re describing, where a person will say he will vote for a Black candidate, but doesn’t actually do so, leading to Black candidates polling better than they actually perform. Wiki has an interesting article on this.
According to the Wiki article, this effect is more pronounced in states where the Black population is smaller.
I hope it has to do more with the fact that he is a very scary candidate more than his race.
*grin*
Been there, done that (actually, still there, still doing that...)
the infowarrior
For what it’s worth, I talked to a woman today who has a daughter at the University of Colorado, and her daughter told her the women on campus are huge fans of Palin. This is not exactly what you would expect to hear from college girls. They love her. And that crowd at their rally at the airport was enormous.
Not a dumb question
You can FRmail Jim Robinson and ask him if he can do it for you, or just create a new name
I know this may be a dumb question, but how in the heck do I change my screen name? I like Bush and all, but I would like to change it.
_____________________
MarrymeSarah is already taken.
:)
I am curious if there is a percentage factor to figure in when calculating polls for the BE, but I guess we will find out on election day.
Great news about Todd and you reminding fellow union workers. What an interesting mixture of real life the Palins bring to us :-).
I think McCain will end up winning by a much larger margin than expected. I say this because Palin has changes the dynamic of the race. I think it is safe to say there has never been an election quite like this one. Given this, any algorithms used to predict the outcome of the election, if they are based on past results, would be flawed. That just my opinion, I don’t know how exactly you calculated your result.
The veracity of polling answers is highly unstable as many of the polled are not likely to reveal their true choices.
Obama is very culturally imbued with "neighborhood" Blacks, as compared to say a Colin Powell for instance. That will cause a lot of jitters with most older Whites and Hispanics.
Women are the most under-served constituency in America. Not choosing Hillary will be seen historically as the turning point in Obama's loss.
The privacy of the voting booth will tell all, and deep seated fears of Blacks and anger about the disenfranchisement of Women are likely to be revealed.
I have this argument with a buddy at work all the time.
I agree that there are certainly a percentage of yahoos who just won’t vote for a black man (although for the record, I was born in Africa and I’m darker than Whitney Houston). I find that pretty disgusting since I would vote for Thomas Sowell or Walter Williams in a heartbeat.
However, we disagree on the percentages.
I put it at 4% max. He says it’s higher, closer to 20%. There is no denying that there is a Bradley effect in the polling that even the drive bys acknowledge. Nobody is going to tell a stranger on the phone in a poll that they have reservations about voting for a _______ (fill in the blank)
In answer to the question posed in this vanity, I would say the odds of Obama winning are 100:1. This will be a landslide McCain Palin victory.
The MSM will blame it on racism. That’s nonsense.
It has everything to do with this particular candidate being unqualified and a closet Saul Alinsky style America hating Marxist.
Try this. Hubby is a Licensed Nuclear Operator and stuck in the union. The IBEW comes down every election trying to get them to vote dem.
Pretty pathetic for union officials to try and get a bunch of nuclear workers to vote for a candidate who’s completely against nuclear power....
Trying to educate a tradesman into the realization that his employment is directly tied to capitol investment in property is a chore sometimes....but most guys get it after a while....not the rabid ones though...
This IS still Ohio...
Most union guys here are ....
Pro-gun
pro-life
Anti-terrorist
Anti-appeasment
Proud Americans
But many of them are also busy and only get news from TV or the Union...thus many suffer from BDS (bush derangement syndrome)...
I've even seen the conspiracy movie “loose change” floated around the hall ( I raised holy hell)...
Our union monthly regularly posts pics of serving union members and are VERY pro troop...
These are the very people Alinsky (oh-bama mentor) talks about...the working class....
The only way for the left to gain control is to artificially created the conditions of hopelessness and disaffection...
The wild card here is patriotism, real emancipation or working women/mothers and an undercurrent of racism for a black canidate...
IIRC the Bush cross over votes for union members was 40%?
I suspect...what ever it was....it's going to be higher in this election...
Just my amateur opinion...
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