I think McCain will end up winning by a much larger margin than expected. I say this because Palin has changes the dynamic of the race. I think it is safe to say there has never been an election quite like this one. Given this, any algorithms used to predict the outcome of the election, if they are based on past results, would be flawed. That just my opinion, I don’t know how exactly you calculated your result.
I used the probabilities from Intrade and did Monte Carlo simulations, a million trials at a time, which showed a 49.4% chance of winning, based on the 12 states I used.
Intrade is just what people’s expectations are, so can be wrong. For example, for a long time they had Obama as a favorite to win in Ohio, even by over 60%. That never made any sense to me. If I were a betting man, I would have taken that, because at no time, in my opinion, did McCain ever have less than a 40% chance of winning Ohio.
“I think McCain will end up winning by a much larger margin than expected.”
Oh please, God. Because electoral vote count, so far, looks scary when the networks show it - a frightening spread between the two thus far. Guess I’m just nervous - I realize none of this is set in stone yet.