Posted on 09/12/2008 5:12:09 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Large and dangerous Hurricane Ike approaching the Upper Texas coast. Mandatory evacuations began in earnest Thursday as an estimated one million coastal residents headed inland. There were widespread reports of gas stations running out of fuel.
The National Weather Service posted dire storm surge predictions of 20-25 ft storm surge along the coast and bay heads. Hurricane warnings covered a 400 mile swath of the Gulf of Mexico.
Wholesale gasoline prices spiked 30 percent Thursday, or nearly $1 a gallon, out of fear of what Ike might do.
Public Advisory Updated every 3 hours
Discussion Updated every 6 hours
Buoy data: Western Gulf of Mexico
Houston/Galveston Long Range Radar
Corpus Christi Long Range Radar
Brownsville Long Range Radar
Lake Charles Long Range Radar
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Additional Resources:
Navy Tropical Cyclone
Storm Pulse Very cool site
KHOU Houston
ABC 13 News Houston
FOX News Houston
KPLC Lake Charles
KFDM 6 Beaumont/Port Arthur
KKBMT 12 Beaumont
KRIS-TV Corpus Christi
KZTV Corpus Christi
Brazoria County Emergency Management
Galveston County Emergency Management
Chambers Country Emergency Management
Liberty County Emergency Management
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Previous Threads:
Hurricane Ike Live Thread II
Hurricane Ike Live Thread I
TS Hanna, Hurricane Ike & TS Josephine [Other than that, the tropics are calm]
Tropical Storms Hanna, Ike and Josephine, TD Gustav (Other than that, the tropics are calm)
When was the last time that a mayor blamed the president for storm related deaths? You can bet the farm that this numb skull will. Take her out and shoot her. What a complete idiot!
I thought it was forming a very large diamter eye, but it looks like another band is wrapping within that structure from the SSW.
The 1400 CDT is out.. no real change in intensity, up one mb in pressure
Glad I’m not an owner at Sea Scape Condos, right where the seawall ends, I imagine it’ll be destroyed completely. It was a great place to stay.
US Army Black Hawks Helicopters are being deployed out of San Antonio to rescue them.
sw
Moose4 wrote:
!!!
Good Lord. 16 hours before landfall and look at that flooding. Unreal, and it’s only going to get worse.
}:-)4
***********************
It will get worse, but probably not all throughout the time between now and landfall.
Galveston’s getting what the rest of the Gulf Coast is getting, still well outside the eyewall.
When the eyewall comes ashore, so will the main surge. Till then, sea level will go up with the tide, but not much more.
Same thing happened during the 1900 hurricane. Galveston proper flooded to about 18 inches early in the morning, then the surge didn’t come ashore till 4 pm. Back then they had tall curbs, so the streets ponded, but not the sidewalks. Then around 4 pm, the levels went up at least 4 feet in 30 seconds, and beyond that, no-one was keeping precise records.
The biggest part of the destruction was due to wave action, which took out so many buildings on the Gulf side shore that the debris built a levee and protected buldings more than 10-15 blocks inland from wave action, they flooded in a relatively calm sea. The seawall will affect that dynamic, this time around, since it wasn’t built in 1900, but I’m not going to try to predict just how. Instead, I’m going to wait and see what happens.
YMMV.
“Is the ship without power, that being the main problem, aside from being out in the hurricane?”
Without power, high winds can more easily run it aground, possibly sinking it. Also, ships should face directly toward or away from storms to prevent being capsized. With no power, they will be unable to take this basic precaution.
REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION ...27.7 N ...93.5 W.
MOVEMENT TOWARD ...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ...955 MB.
Allegra wrote:
You getting any high wind?
;<)
Nary a leaf is fluttering here.
Just checked outside.
No wind here. Just a mild breeze. ;-)
************
You are probably in the eye. Do you see any tall clouds?
Can you add me to your ping list? I’ll hang on for as long as I have power. Thanks!
Amen.
sw
I wonder whether the San Luis will still be.....
I’d like to know just what can hold up to so many hours of being pummeled by the waves that this storm is producing.
kinghorse, send us some pictures of it when it’s all over.
There is an approximate power law:
Va / Vr ~= (Ha / Hr) ^ F
Va== velocity at altitude in question
Vr== velocity at reference height
Ha== height of altitude in question
Hr== reference height
F== power factor - think of as frictional effect of the surface on the air.
In general, over “average” ground, F is taken as 1/7
Over water or very smooth ground, F is closer to 1/9
Very rough areas, it could even be 1/2.
The reference height for most of the world is 10 meters. In the US, it traditionally has been 20feet, and that means in quite a few disciplines (fire control) they will suggest that you multiply the US wind velocity in an article by 1.15 when reading articles.
I could not find on the NOAA site what altitude they are now measuring wind speed - I hope it is 10meter, but it might be 20ft or even 6 ft.
The article I link here has a graph that shows velocity versus altitude for a couple terrains, though it has nothing to do with the subject at hand:
M. Espinola wrote:
Thanks for posting that data and the graphics. It makes everything very clear.
********************
Glad you liked ‘em. More as needed, hoping the 30 foot model will cover the high end of the probability spectrum.
Actual flood depth elevations, measured or eyeballed at specific locations, and peak and average wave heigths are welcome.
I know that's frivolous in light of this particular storm, but just thought I'd let people know.
He also told me people had gotten tired of evacuating other storms all summer and that the media has been hyping them so much and that's why he thinks 40% stayed behind on the island.
Wow, thanks for explaining that. God be with them!
I have a hurricane video that interviewed the one survivor from that hurricane party for Camille. She somehow got swept out a window and managed to (obviously) get to safety. She knew how fortunate she was.
Any way you slice it, it's thousands of people. Prayers for them.
They need to get Ray Nagin on the horn to threaten everybody with a “do not pass Go, do not collect $200” one-way ticket to Angola prison if they don’t bug out.
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