Hurricane Ike Live Thread III

NOAA/NHC ^ | 12 September 2008 | NOAA/NHC

[NautiNurse]

Large and dangerous Hurricane Ike approaching the Upper Texas coast. Mandatory evacuations began in earnest Thursday as an estimated one million coastal residents headed inland. There were widespread reports of gas stations running out of fuel.

The National Weather Service posted dire storm surge predictions of 20-25 ft storm surge along the coast and bay heads. Hurricane warnings covered a 400 mile swath of the Gulf of Mexico.

Wholesale gasoline prices spiked 30 percent Thursday, or nearly $1 a gallon, out of fear of what Ike might do.

Public Advisory Updated every 3 hours

Discussion Updated every 6 hours

Buoy data: Western Gulf of Mexico

Forecast Models

Houston/Galveston Long Range Radar
Corpus Christi Long Range Radar
Brownsville Long Range Radar
Lake Charles Long Range Radar

Ike
Single Image		Image Loop
Lat/Lon	No Lat/Lon	Short	Long
Visible	Visible	Visible	Visible
Shortwave	Shortwave	Shortwave	Shortwave
Water Vapor	Water Vapor	Water Vapor	Water Vapor
Infrared Channel 4 Enhancements
None	None	None	None
AVN	AVN	AVN	AVN
Dvorak	Dvorak	Dvorak	Dvorak
JSL	JSL	JSL	JSL
RGB	RGB	RGB	RGB
Funktop	Funktop	Funktop	Funktop
Rainbow	Rainbow	Rainbow	Rainbow

Additional Resources:

Navy Tropical Cyclone
Storm Pulse Very cool site

KHOU Houston
ABC 13 News Houston
FOX News Houston

KPLC Lake Charles
KFDM 6 Beaumont/Port Arthur
KKBMT 12 Beaumont
KRIS-TV Corpus Christi
KZTV Corpus Christi

Brazoria County Emergency Management
Galveston County Emergency Management
Chambers Country Emergency Management
Liberty County Emergency Management

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Ike Live Thread II
Hurricane Ike Live Thread I
TS Hanna, Hurricane Ike & TS Josephine [Other than that, the tropics are calm]
Tropical Storms Hanna, Ike and Josephine, TD Gustav (Other than that, the tropics are calm)

[politicalwit]

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/energyprices.html

[Nachoman]

uh, not exactly ... inceased "sand level" does not increase "sea level".

Well of course not. What happens is the water will be shallower by the sea wall than when it was first constructed. The shallower the water, the taller the waves.

[penelopesire]

Ditto on the prayers!

We are battening down the hatches here in central Texas....expecting tropical storm force winds.

Our prayers are with the people of Houston/Galveston and the rest of the Texas coast residents.

[DrewsMum]

Where are you?

[TheMom]

Pitch a tent, my butt!!! Maybe if I was 20 again! We will head to our place down south ~ this gal does not want to do without A/C. ;-o

[OC_Steve]

Here in Tomball TX, we’re about 70 miles from Galveston, and pretty much directly in Ike’s path, as of the 4am update. We’re not too worried about the storm itself. We may get Cat1 gusts, and heavy rain. But since the storm will be moving quickly through the area, we should avoid serious flooding from rain (I hope). My major concern at this point is power. We’ll almost certainly lose power tonight, and the talking heads are telling us to prepare for the possibility of power outages lasting a much as 2 weeks. How does one prepare for 2-weeks with no power? Leave?

Hey neighbor. I am in Cypress. Looks like we saw the same report on Ch13. I was thinking the same thing. I prepared for 3 to 5 days.

I was just chastised by one of my employees in Louisiana for not getting a generator.

[BlueAngel]

Its hard to believe whats in store for us, the sun is up and looks to be a beautiful day. I wonder when we’ll start to see the first rain bands.

[Texas_shutterbug]

If you have no electricity, it’s going to be awfully hot when you come in after mowing. My hubby mowed yesterday for that reason.

[AFPhys]

I just examined the models again.

The path seems very solid right now. From here on in, you have to trust that NHC has it right. This is going to come in just to the west of Galveston Bay - I’d say about 30 miles west. That is just about as bad as it can get for the bay.

If anything, the models that are most trusted bring it in a little further west, not more east. In any event, I don’t see how the course is going to be significantly better for Galveston area than the present forecast.

[PapaBear3625]

NPR was reporting yesterday that wholesale gasoline for Gulf Coast delivery was up $1.00 (as of 8:30 a.m.; I pulled in to fill up) to $4.25

I'm guessing that a good part of the increment is due to having to pay a premium for the actual cost of delivery into that mess.

[TheMom]

In southwest Houston.

[SouthTexas]

Not hot now, but it’s a trade-off between the sun and the skeeters.

[texasredtop]

It depends on how far they shut them down. Most may just go on circulation and can be brought up pretty quick after the storm.

[STARWISE]

Only way I can think of, and it was vital
after Andrew for a very long time, is a generator.

The Galveston coastal cam shots are ominous.

Stay safe.

[penelopesire]

So you are staying put?

Please be careful!

I kept TXCN on most of the night and Katy will get hammered pretty good according to the experts. Hopefully you will stay on the ‘clean’ side of the storm, but it hasn’t turned yet and may come in west of you.

[AFPhys]

you probably can’t get along without your supermassago electric easy chair, either - wimp.

[OC_Steve]

Breeze just picked up in Cypress. Was about to go ride my bike but I think I will walk around instead. Lot of my neighbors decided to ride this out. A complete contrast to Rita.

I think by noon we will start to see some clouds and more wind.

[Deaf Smith]

bttt

[barb-tex]

During Rita we were without power for 32 days. Wee were finally able to find a generator. Now with $4 gas we couldn’t afford it anyway even if we could find it. I need to get a propane powered one as we can always get propane. Since we live in the sticks we need power for water.
barbra ann

[Sig Sauer P220]

Any one watching FoxNews? They have Heraldo on a beach in Galveston! Didn’t they say something about “certain death” for people who stayed in Galveston. Do they really want to get rid of him that badly?

Lets hope so. Unfortunately, he drags cameramen along, and they don't need that.