Posted on 09/12/2008 5:12:09 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Large and dangerous Hurricane Ike approaching the Upper Texas coast. Mandatory evacuations began in earnest Thursday as an estimated one million coastal residents headed inland. There were widespread reports of gas stations running out of fuel.
The National Weather Service posted dire storm surge predictions of 20-25 ft storm surge along the coast and bay heads. Hurricane warnings covered a 400 mile swath of the Gulf of Mexico.
Wholesale gasoline prices spiked 30 percent Thursday, or nearly $1 a gallon, out of fear of what Ike might do.
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| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Previous Threads:
Hurricane Ike Live Thread II
Hurricane Ike Live Thread I
TS Hanna, Hurricane Ike & TS Josephine [Other than that, the tropics are calm]
Tropical Storms Hanna, Ike and Josephine, TD Gustav (Other than that, the tropics are calm)
The meterologist at KHOU just said this is a cat 2 storm in terms of wind, but a cat 4 or 5 in terms of surge. It can’t be overemphasized.
whoealdo just busted his ass in the surf.
OMG
I’m just catching up on the thread running through graphics.
So- with this storm somewhere between 15- 20 surge Galveston is underwater and a huge surge comes further inland?
It reminds me of a time in Galveston. My husband and I were going in to look at an apartment. A huge water spout came over the bay, right toward us. We both just stood there watching it, kind of in a daze until the manager grabbed our arms and yelled “get in here” Then it was like ...that wasn't very smart. There used to be an older person in the family that had gone thru bad storms to guide the younger. Now with families all over the country some don't have anyone to yell "get out of there" Add that to not trusting the media and you have a big problem.
You left out one important statistic: 6,000 - 10,000 Souls perished.
Whorealdo just got knocked tits-over-teakettle by a wave.
Best laugh I have had in days.
The surge is ahead of the storm, so it doesn’t matter how intense the storm is when it hits land. What matters is how strong the storm is hours before it hits land.
Saturated foundations, built into sand with significant height and weight are good candidates for toppling from wind and wave forcing. The best shelter on Galveston may be the buildings that are one story above the expected wave height, say the top floor of a seven story building.
Shh! You’re not allowed to ask that question. Remember, everyone’s going to die unless they follow orders!
Basically, yes. 15-20 feet pushes water far up Galveston Bay into the bayous and creeks and shorelines in the towns around Houston proper, and puts almost all of Galveston Island underwater.
}:-)4
Reading the account of what happened to those poor children at the St Mary’s Orphanage in the book “Isaac’s Storm” brought tears to my eyes when I read about it.
I guess if I were you I’d take a look at the surge maps..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIUPCfIihQ4&feature=related
old Glen Campbell song keeps playing in my head
Surfside Hwy 332 now flooding. Scheduled to close shortly.
Add to that an ESP scale which can predict which trees will fall and where they will land or the heavy items which will be blown into buildings, allowing the hurricane force winds to come into those buildings during a time when evacuation is impossible.
A friend of mine died during Alicia when a tree fell.
I guess IF I KNEW FOR SURE I could watch all safely from above it would be tempting.. but even poured concrete & reinforced concrete structures still can have problems.]
Because they really don't understand what waves can do. If it were merely flooding or just wind, they'd have a point. What we're looking at is huge waves pounding on stuff for HOURS. I think what will be left will look like the remains of the tsunami. And I think that most of those people who are on Galveston trying to ride it out will die.
If the storm surge covers everything, where will they go? If the waves batter it as the storm surge rises, nothing stands a chance. How good of a swimmer to they think they are? The rip tides alone have to be incredible.
Take a look at the storm surge hours in front of the storm and evaluate from that. Some of these places are experiencing more surge this early than they saw all through other storms. They are beginning to worry that they underestimated some of the surge.
East or South of downtown, or North/West? Also, how close to a bayou are you, and how far above it? You really need to be at least 30 feet above sea level, and even that is borderline.
I talked with her pretty detailed a couple hours ago
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