Hurricane Ike Live Thread III

NOAA/NHC ^ | 12 September 2008 | NOAA/NHC

[NautiNurse]

Large and dangerous Hurricane Ike approaching the Upper Texas coast. Mandatory evacuations began in earnest Thursday as an estimated one million coastal residents headed inland. There were widespread reports of gas stations running out of fuel.

The National Weather Service posted dire storm surge predictions of 20-25 ft storm surge along the coast and bay heads. Hurricane warnings covered a 400 mile swath of the Gulf of Mexico.

Wholesale gasoline prices spiked 30 percent Thursday, or nearly $1 a gallon, out of fear of what Ike might do.

Public Advisory Updated every 3 hours

Discussion Updated every 6 hours

Buoy data: Western Gulf of Mexico

Forecast Models

Houston/Galveston Long Range Radar
Corpus Christi Long Range Radar
Brownsville Long Range Radar
Lake Charles Long Range Radar

Ike
Single Image		Image Loop
Lat/Lon	No Lat/Lon	Short	Long
Visible	Visible	Visible	Visible
Shortwave	Shortwave	Shortwave	Shortwave
Water Vapor	Water Vapor	Water Vapor	Water Vapor
Infrared Channel 4 Enhancements
None	None	None	None
AVN	AVN	AVN	AVN
Dvorak	Dvorak	Dvorak	Dvorak
JSL	JSL	JSL	JSL
RGB	RGB	RGB	RGB
Funktop	Funktop	Funktop	Funktop
Rainbow	Rainbow	Rainbow	Rainbow

Additional Resources:

Navy Tropical Cyclone
Storm Pulse Very cool site

KHOU Houston
ABC 13 News Houston
FOX News Houston

KPLC Lake Charles
KFDM 6 Beaumont/Port Arthur
KKBMT 12 Beaumont
KRIS-TV Corpus Christi
KZTV Corpus Christi

Brazoria County Emergency Management
Galveston County Emergency Management
Chambers Country Emergency Management
Liberty County Emergency Management

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Ike Live Thread II
Hurricane Ike Live Thread I
TS Hanna, Hurricane Ike & TS Josephine [Other than that, the tropics are calm]
Tropical Storms Hanna, Ike and Josephine, TD Gustav (Other than that, the tropics are calm)

[Centurion2000]

The Weather channel reports that 50% of the residents of Galveston have chosen to ride it out..

Then it looks like those people are gonna die .... I have NEVER heard of the NWS sending out a message saying CERTAIN DEATH in a warning.

[spectre]

Bump to your post!

OMG!!!

sw

[Allegra]

Check out the link in #54.

If we do loose power I will call you.

Thanks. I've got it up and it looks awful. I've also got it on the news on TV.

I continue to pray for all of y'all's safety, including the pets.

[Jaded]

IMO, people are thinking more in terms of Alicia than Katrina at this point. I slept through Alicia in Pasadena.

We’re ready, still in Pasadena.

[nwctwx]

If that’s the case then it’s maybe not as dire as some here would say.

[lainie]

Well, yes, we could have life-threatening injuries at any time. That's why we all plan ahead as much as possible in an effort to mitigate that which we can control. I'm not sure what you mean by living in fear of the news media since the storm is what it is, but if you meant you're not sure "everyone is gonna die" in Galveston, I tend to agree with that. The media, however, isn't saying that. It could be pretty bad, however, and evacuation seems to be pretty light in my estimation. I also understand that you're not in Galveston proper. All I thought is the my-taxes-pay-for-them was a bad supporting argument for your decision to stay put. If you're as no-nonsense as you seem, I figured you might appreciate being told what people think of your position or things you say. Again, good luck to you & yours.

[TheMom]

LOL

[Romulus]

It is a surge threat comparable to Katrina, by all estimates.

No it isn't. Katrina's surge where the eye came ashore was 28-30 feet. No one is predicting this for Ike. I am not taking sides in the debate of who should flee and who can safely stay: we are all responsible for our own decisions, and no one who isn't physically present with long-standing familiarity with the place is qualified to offer a judgment about what course is best. TRP, this veteran of Betsy, Gustav, and countless storms in between salutes you and wishes you all the best from New Orleans.

[Centurion2000]

The scary thing is that this is not even worst case for this storm.

Here's worst case

[comps4spice]

Isn’t true that this is compound damage (at least on the areas affected by surge), i.e. wind damage on top of surge caused damage (waves, etc.) or vice versa? I think you are right that those staying are looking at the wind speeds and using their experience, which since no one here was around in the 1900 Galveston hurricane and relatively few in the 1961 Carla, no one has a clue what they are really facing.

[spectre]

When the people who ride it out DIE, watch how fast the Bush Administration gets blamed for NOT ordering them all out.

sw

[AFPhys]

I know.

I was trying not to use hyperbole - but I honestly fear we could well be witnessing the making of the worst death toll in US history right now - not sure of that, but I fear it.

[DollyCali]

why do people think that staying in a public building or high rise will keep them safer?

I guess IF I KNEW FOR SURE I could watch all safely from above it would be tempting.. but even poured concrete & reinforced concrete structures still can have problems.]

[wxgesr]

Thanks for the link! I grew up in HOU/GLS until 1974. I rode many small storms/HURCNs out there. I was once driving on the seawall at night (after it was closed due to flooding) and heard the DJs yelling at me to get off the seawall! I cannot remember the radio station, the only one in town.
As a life long surfer and meteorologist, there is no way in He!! I qould stay there. Bayside flooding can be a killer as well. When Ike passes the winds will reverse and push all of that water from North to South.
God Bless!!!
Now in Norfolk, VA...surf/fish OBX!!!! Help save the beach!

[dirtboy]

No it isn't. Katrina's surge where the eye came ashore was 28-30 feet. No one is predicting this for Ike.

You are missing a key aspect here. Galveston Bay funnels the surge, akin to what the Bay of Fundy does to tides. If the surge is 16-20 feet at Galveston, it will be much higher at the head of the bay. THAT is the danger. And since there has not been a storm like this in recent history - Carla hit well down the coast, whereas this storm is forecast to strike just SW of Galveston and is geographically huge - a worst-case strike for surge - they really can't be sure of what is going to happen. That is the entire point - they UNDERFORECAST Katrina. And people died as a result - it wasn't the fault of the forecasters, it's just that, if you are counting on five feet of elevation as your safety margin, that is foolhardy.

[arkady_renko]

I'm with you. We need a 'wind-chill' type of scale that takes into size of system, speed, wind speed, pressure, surge...

[Hillarys Gate Cult]

Maroonspoon is back now with Ike coverage. Live streams 4 Houston TV stations ( including KHOU ) at the same time on a split screen. Go to lower left of each mini window to mute the ones you don't need as the sound for all 4 is on at the same time. Was a great source during Gustav.

[Jaded]

Clear Lake?

[Hillarys Gate Cult]

Posted but link didn’t make it. Here it is again.

http://www.maroonspoon.com/wx/ike.html

[nomorelurker]

IKE is already causing flooding and the main part of the storm is stll several hours away very scary!