Hurricane Ike Live Thread III

NOAA/NHC ^ | 12 September 2008 | NOAA/NHC

[NautiNurse]

Large and dangerous Hurricane Ike approaching the Upper Texas coast. Mandatory evacuations began in earnest Thursday as an estimated one million coastal residents headed inland. There were widespread reports of gas stations running out of fuel.

The National Weather Service posted dire storm surge predictions of 20-25 ft storm surge along the coast and bay heads. Hurricane warnings covered a 400 mile swath of the Gulf of Mexico.

Wholesale gasoline prices spiked 30 percent Thursday, or nearly $1 a gallon, out of fear of what Ike might do.

Public Advisory Updated every 3 hours

Discussion Updated every 6 hours

Buoy data: Western Gulf of Mexico

Forecast Models

Houston/Galveston Long Range Radar
Corpus Christi Long Range Radar
Brownsville Long Range Radar
Lake Charles Long Range Radar

Ike
Single Image		Image Loop
Lat/Lon	No Lat/Lon	Short	Long
Visible	Visible	Visible	Visible
Shortwave	Shortwave	Shortwave	Shortwave
Water Vapor	Water Vapor	Water Vapor	Water Vapor
Infrared Channel 4 Enhancements
None	None	None	None
AVN	AVN	AVN	AVN
Dvorak	Dvorak	Dvorak	Dvorak
JSL	JSL	JSL	JSL
RGB	RGB	RGB	RGB
Funktop	Funktop	Funktop	Funktop
Rainbow	Rainbow	Rainbow	Rainbow

Additional Resources:

Navy Tropical Cyclone
Storm Pulse Very cool site

KHOU Houston
ABC 13 News Houston
FOX News Houston

KPLC Lake Charles
KFDM 6 Beaumont/Port Arthur
KKBMT 12 Beaumont
KRIS-TV Corpus Christi
KZTV Corpus Christi

Brazoria County Emergency Management
Galveston County Emergency Management
Chambers Country Emergency Management
Liberty County Emergency Management

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Ike Live Thread II
Hurricane Ike Live Thread I
TS Hanna, Hurricane Ike & TS Josephine [Other than that, the tropics are calm]
Tropical Storms Hanna, Ike and Josephine, TD Gustav (Other than that, the tropics are calm)

[Moose4]

They’re hunkered down in a big sturdy multi-story hotel in Galveston, probably. (The better to get the obligatory 100-mile-an-hour-wind-through-the-parking-garage shots.)

}:-)4

[patton]

LOLOLOL!

[Justa]

Yeah, I checked your area on the maps. It's right on edge of the expected extent of surge flooding. I'd say that gives you a 50-50 chance of getting through it. I wouldn't take those odds.

On the downside though being on the edge of the storm damage means you stand a good chance of having the temporary morgues set up in your area when this is over. They'll probably force you to evacuate before that though. I.e., either way you probably won't be there next week so why take the risk of waiting through the storm now?

[dirtboy]

We discussed this already. She’s “in the orange” of the map linked Post#51, and is aware of the surge factor.

So she's somewhere in the 25-30 foot zone. If she's at 26 and the surge goes to 34 - she's in the attic. Texasredtop, if you are going to stay, be sure you have a space cleared in your attic, with some water bottles, food, a radio, flashlight - and an axe to cut a hole in the roof if you have to.

[comps4spice]

Now that’s funny!

[patton]

50%????

Yikes.

[metmom]

I will not be surprised if over 10,000 die tomorrow - of course, I was expecting about 30K+ dead in 9/11 -— I hope I’m as inaccurate here.

With the number of people reported to be staying, I think your number is going to be inaccurate, but not in the way you're hoping.

[lainie]

I’m glad Directv is doing that again. It’s a great service. I checked 361 last night, wondering when they might turn it on. Thanks for the heads-up. It’s better than watching it online.

[AFPhys]

She indicated to me in a post long ago that she is 25-30ft ASL and 30 miles inland.

[Eaker]

TheMom, kids, six dogs and I am almost to your house.

Are you ready for us?

;<)

[sweet_diane]

Just got an email from my sister...they are heading out of League City! whew....really glad they made that decision and from what they are hearing, the roads are moving along pretty good.

I am now addicted to this ustream.tv feed!

[OC_Steve]

i apologize if this has been posted: evacuation routes as follows:

UH grads: I10 west
Baylor grads: 45N
UT grads: I10 east
Rice grads: 59 south
A&M grads: 610 loop

610 is pretty open. Already on my third loop.

Long Beach State Grad

[spectre]

I'm not familiar with Galveston, but it's been reported they have a population of around 60,000.

If half of them stayed, that's 30,000 souls in grave danger.

"Yikes" is right!

sw

[patton]

I might take that risk - but I wouldn’t let my wife and kids do it.

Which means I would have to leave with them, or they wouldn’t go.

[NautiNurse]

When I hear someone poo poo this storm because "it is only a Cat 2," and "it only has 100 mph winds," and "I have survived much worse storms than this," then I know we are dealing with someone who does not grasp this freak storm with the respect and fear it deserves.

Otherwise, thanks for your feedback.

[mathluv]

LOL!!! I remember that from Rita

[sweet_diane]

"KHOU CHANNEL 361, DIRECTV"

We had it during Gustav, but not now. My uncle is getting it, but not us. Uncle has HD set up and we don't. Our system goes back to right after Ivan...that was 04?

[DollyCali]

I am curious & appreciate the link but dont understand what this means

[nwctwx]

this might have been posted, but it’s a NASA animation of different surge levels in the area

http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/134306main_pia06674.gif

[patton]

You are more than welcome - futons everywhere, cow in the freezer, grill now plumbed in to NG, so it never runs out.

Might need to make a beer run. ;)