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Hurricane Ike Live Thread III
NOAA/NHC ^ | 12 September 2008 | NOAA/NHC

Posted on 09/12/2008 5:12:09 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Large and dangerous Hurricane Ike approaching the Upper Texas coast. Mandatory evacuations began in earnest Thursday as an estimated one million coastal residents headed inland. There were widespread reports of gas stations running out of fuel.

The National Weather Service posted dire storm surge predictions of 20-25 ft storm surge along the coast and bay heads. Hurricane warnings covered a 400 mile swath of the Gulf of Mexico.

Wholesale gasoline prices spiked 30 percent Thursday, or nearly $1 a gallon, out of fear of what Ike might do.

Public Advisory Updated every 3 hours

Discussion Updated every 6 hours

Buoy data: Western Gulf of Mexico

Forecast Models

Houston/Galveston Long Range Radar
Corpus Christi Long Range Radar
Brownsville Long Range Radar
Lake Charles Long Range Radar

Ike
Single Image Image Loop
Lat/Lon No Lat/Lon Short Long
Visible Visible Visible Visible
Shortwave Shortwave Shortwave Shortwave
Water Vapor Water Vapor Water Vapor Water Vapor
Infrared Channel 4 Enhancements
None None None None
AVN AVN AVN AVN
Dvorak Dvorak Dvorak Dvorak
JSL JSL JSL JSL
RGB RGB RGB RGB
Funktop Funktop Funktop Funktop
Rainbow Rainbow Rainbow Rainbow

Additional Resources:

Navy Tropical Cyclone
Storm Pulse Very cool site

KHOU Houston
ABC 13 News Houston
FOX News Houston

KPLC Lake Charles
KFDM 6 Beaumont/Port Arthur
KKBMT 12 Beaumont
KRIS-TV Corpus Christi
KZTV Corpus Christi

Brazoria County Emergency Management
Galveston County Emergency Management
Chambers Country Emergency Management
Liberty County Emergency Management

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Ike Live Thread II
Hurricane Ike Live Thread I
TS Hanna, Hurricane Ike & TS Josephine [Other than that, the tropics are calm]
Tropical Storms Hanna, Ike and Josephine, TD Gustav (Other than that, the tropics are calm)


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Arkansas; US: Louisiana; US: Oklahoma; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: arkansas; california; crude; desiel; drill; flordia; florida; galveston; gasoline; gulf; hurricane; ike; louisiana; offshore; oil; oklahoma; prices; refineries; rigs; storm; texas; weather
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To: SomeCallMeTim

Storm motion still NW. Geraldo heading west in the surf. Well... not yet.


2,461 posted on 09/12/2008 9:22:45 PM PDT by Tuxedo (Just call her Sarah)
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To: TheMom

LOL! Glad you are still with us. Thought you might need a little levity. I have never been through a hurricane, just tornadoes.


2,462 posted on 09/12/2008 9:22:55 PM PDT by defconw ("Hope is not a strategy")
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To: Freedom'sWorthIt

I think you meant TexasRedTop.. ??

Haven’t heard from her in quite awhile... but, the power’s probably out where she is. So, we may not know her status for awhile...

Prayers for her and others in this storm’s path.


2,463 posted on 09/12/2008 9:23:36 PM PDT by SomeCallMeTim ( When you find yourself going through Hell, keep going!)
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To: Tuxedo

lol...soon.


2,464 posted on 09/12/2008 9:23:38 PM PDT by Shortstop7
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To: AFPhys
The eye has wobbled a bit to the left now. But I cannot see any way for the eye to make landfall SW of Galveston now. That is a HUGE improvement in the track as far as surge impact. It it better to take a direct hit from the eye than to have it come in 40 miles below you. We just might have dodged the worst case scenario here. Fingers and toes crossed.

I will also say that Houston east of downtown should expect a really bad night from the winds - that will probably be the worst wind corridor now. And given that much of that area has subsidede due to pumping groundwater, it will also be very prone to surge.

2,465 posted on 09/12/2008 9:24:05 PM PDT by dirtboy
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To: thesearethetimes...

True, mine never have a bad day!


2,466 posted on 09/12/2008 9:24:20 PM PDT by Eaker (Dutch expression "You can give a monkey a gold ring, but it stays an ugly thing." - EscapedDutch)
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To: Shortstop7

Right now I love him.He gives a feel for the storm and may all the reporters be safe.


2,467 posted on 09/12/2008 9:24:49 PM PDT by fatima (Put your lipstick on girls and go vote.)
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To: Fundamentally Fair
He did that in Iraq. Did he do it twice?

I clearly remember him doing it in Lebanon. I'm disgusted beyond expression to learn from you that after that action, for which he should have been fired, he was allowed to go into another combat zone and do the same thing to our own soldiers.

2,468 posted on 09/12/2008 9:25:02 PM PDT by American Quilter (The urge to save humanity is nearly always a cover for the urge to rule. - H. L. Mencken)
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To: Shortstop7

Watching Geraldo tonight is like watching “Rocky”.

Does he think he will beat this monstrous storm?


2,469 posted on 09/12/2008 9:25:02 PM PDT by Palladin (Muslim men hate pigs, dogs, and women.)
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To: Palladin

He’s a wild man, I like him.


2,470 posted on 09/12/2008 9:25:51 PM PDT by eyedigress
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To: SomeCallMeTim
Looks to me like just a little wobble as the eye is being re-defined... and tightened up.

But that wobble might just have prevented a worst-case scenario for Galveston Bay. Charlie in 2004 wobbled ten miles at landfall and it made all the difference in the world as to who got nailed and who missed the worst of the storm.

2,471 posted on 09/12/2008 9:26:09 PM PDT by dirtboy
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To: AFPhys

VERY sharp rise on the Rollover Pass guage in about 30 minutes, from 66 1/2 to over 9 feet!


2,472 posted on 09/12/2008 9:26:20 PM PDT by tcrlaf (SARAH PALIN-The American Everywoman (Yes, You Really CAN!))
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To: Cecily; humblegunner; Eaker; TheMom
Fleeing danger beats winning a Darwin Award any day of the week.

Yea, but Humble has never won anything and I guess he just thought that maybe he could win that one.

But where he is, he should be fine.

The Eakers, I worry about. Well at least about the dogs, who don't have any say in the matter.

I did check and their elevation appears high enough that even 25' of surge is not going to reach them.

2,473 posted on 09/12/2008 9:26:22 PM PDT by El Gato ("The Second Amendment is the RESET button of the United States Constitution." -- Doug McKay)
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To: Freedom'sWorthIt

Nothing since this afternoon.


2,474 posted on 09/12/2008 9:26:27 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Palin won more votes in her Wasilla Mayoral race than Biden got in his 2008 Pres run)
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To: Palladin; fatima

He IS determined...gotta give him that.

He seems to be getting very nervous now. I do hope all the reporters stay safe.


2,475 posted on 09/12/2008 9:26:56 PM PDT by Shortstop7
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To: conservativeinferno
Right before Shep announced a new eye wall, the KHOU meterologist had called that open cell a breaking-up of the eye wall, and good news.

Until I hear otherwise, I'm going with that guy :)

2,476 posted on 09/12/2008 9:26:59 PM PDT by lainie
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To: SeaHawkFan

Now, now...let’s not make fun of small town mayors.

That’s what Obama does!


2,477 posted on 09/12/2008 9:27:30 PM PDT by Palladin (Muslim men hate pigs, dogs, and women.)
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To: dirtboy

Something that might help in the Houston area is that they have had very little rain in the last month.


2,478 posted on 09/12/2008 9:27:43 PM PDT by SeaHawkFan
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To: AFPhys

Probably getting washover along much of the length of the island now, except for the urban core. New breaches likely, and I’ll write off the G’town-Freeport causeway too.


2,479 posted on 09/12/2008 9:27:52 PM PDT by jeffers
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To: SomeCallMeTim

Yes, Texas Red Top - boy I hope she and her family are aok.

And, yes, power outages are going to be so widespread.

I heard one of our power companies, Progress Energy, has already sent 800 crewmen to help restore power in Texas....that was good to hear!

NC had a lot of help with power restoration from outfits across the country during Fran and Floyd. Good to be able to help out other areas.


2,480 posted on 09/12/2008 9:29:10 PM PDT by Freedom'sWorthIt (DEFUND NPR - National Propaganda Radio for the Leftists/Communists/Socialists)
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