Posted on 09/11/2008 4:42:44 AM PDT by bigcat32
WASHINGTON -- When a new Rasmussen poll this week showed John McCain with a healthy lead in Ohio, the head of the Ohio Democratic Party observed that polls come, and polls go. He wasn't kidding.
A new Quinnipiac University poll of Ohio this morning puts Barack Obama ahead in this swing state, not McCain.
Quinnipiac University assistant polling director Peter Brown explains why:
"Sen. McCain and Sen. Obama are getting the same level of party loyalty and the Republican is even winning slightly among independents. But Obama is ahead because there are so many more people who identify as Democrats -- a legacy of the 2006 election and scandals involving former Gov. Robert Taft's administration."
(Excerpt) Read more at cleveland.com ...
I had a one-person poll here in Ohio. My dem mother switched from “solid-Obama” to “leaning-McCain” immediately following “PigGate”. When I say “solid-Obama”, I mean that we had extremely heated debates that probably scared my kids and had my sister threaten to put us in separate rooms.
Mom is in the white 60+ woman who watches more American Idol then politics demographic. In my opinion, this is the demographic “PigGate” will have an effect on. It took me up until election day to get her to vote for President Bush in 2000 and 2004. She’s moving over about 50 days earlier this cycle.
This reflects the 'bounce' Zer0bama got from the lipstick comments. Keep it up, Zer0! that's a winning message.
The poll was released this morning or last night.
“What a shame. I went to post a comment at the link and got:Comments are not active for this entry”
Click the link that takes you to the full story where you can post a comment.
Bingo! If they’re still assuming that party id is today what it was even 30 days ago they’re way off.
“But Obama is ahead because there are so many more people who identify as Democrats”
Check the internals. To me this says “we called a whole lot more Denocrats in the poll.”
Now a phony poll to buck-up the troops in Ohio.
Thanks for telegraphing your electoral college strategy, boys.
I just hate the media! Right after announcing that McCain and Obama are going to put aside politics for one day, they gleefully went into the Ohio poll numbers! I don’t know if anyone has noticed it or not but I have been watching TV since 5AM and doing some channel switching and it seems there is an all out effort today to really push Obama. Even on Fox.
But thats the one they will be pushing all day. I noticed before it was Rassmusen because he had them the closest.
Probably not. Polls are the easiest thing there is to manipulate. I am using some common sense when I say I think McCain is ahead. Sarahmania for one thing and the fact that I know America and they are like us. One factor in this race is that a lot of Democrats are afraid of Obama because they think he is muslim. I have heard so many democrats say they are going McCain this time. If Hillary had been the nominee, it may have been different.
This polls is definitely screwy. Here is the evidence:
1) McCain is winning Independents 47-43%
2) McCain is tied at 47% among Male voters and trails by 10 points among Women
3) McCain attracts 28% of Hillary’s Democratic primary voters and even 8% of Obama’s Democratic primary voters. Yet, McCain is only attracting 10% support from Democrats total.
4) The percentage of white voters who have yet to decide is 7% and McCain only leads Obama 50-43% in this category
Overall, these numbers just don’t add up and.
Gallup seems to have McCain up by the biggest number.
Stupid media is really pushing this Quinipiac poll today. I hope it doesn’t depress the base.
Depress the base? Huh? It’s one poll of one state two months before election day. If that “depresses” the base, we need a to get a new base.
September 08, 2008
Ohio
John McCain out in front of Barack Obama 51% to 44%
The latest numbers, which are the first to be released since the conclusion of both parties’ conventions, mark an improvement for the Republican nominee. In August, McCain had a slightly more modest advantage over the Democrat. In fact, the GOP hopeful has held a modest lead since July in the swing state that finally decided the 2004 election.
McCain is viewed favorably by 63% of Ohio voters and unfavorably by 35%. Obama’s ratings are 50% favorable, 48% unfavorable.
It's that fuzzy math.
Hope you're right. Fox had some professor's political computer model scrolling on the bottom of the screen last night as Greta was waiting for Palin to arrive in Fairbanks. The model predicted that Obama would win both the electoral and popular vote with the latter at 52-48% Obama and the scroll further stated it has accurately predicted the results since 1988.
I know, consider the source. But I'm doing more than worrying. I've donated to the campaign and am going down to the local registrar of voters and get registration forms and get folks in our office to sign up.
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