Posted on 08/09/2008 1:30:46 AM PDT by HAL9000
Excerpt -
GORI, Georgia, Aug 9 (Reuters) - Russia said it had driven Georgian forces from the capital of South Ossetia on Saturday as part of an operation to force Georgia to accept peace in its breakaway region."Tactical groups have fully liberated Tskhinvali from the Georgian military and have started pushing Georgian units beyond the zone of peacekeepers responsibility," Tass quoted Ground Forces commander Vladimir Boldyrev as saying.
~ snip ~
(Excerpt) Read more at alertnet.org ...
Whole article here.
South Ossetia Crisis Could Be Russia’s Chance To Defeat Siloviki
South Ossetian leader Eduard Kokoity (right) outside Tskhinvali on August 7
August 08, 2008
By Yulia Latynina
Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili has handed his Russian counterpart, Dmitry Medvedev, a victory over the “siloviki” in Russia. And if Medvedev is able to take advantage of the fruits of this victory, the consequences will be significant not so much for Tbilisi as for Moscow.
So, why is this a victory over the siloviki — those in the Russian ruling elite with close ties to the state security organs? Because there is no way the regime in South Ossetia can be in any sense called “separatist.” Who there is a separatist? The head of the local KGB, Anatoly Baranov, used to head the Federal Security Service (FSB) in the Russian Republic of Mordovia. The head of the South Ossetian Interior Ministry, Mikhail Mindzayev, served in the Interior Ministry of Russia’s North Ossetia. The South Ossetian “defense minister,” Vasily Lunev, used to be military commissar in Perm Oblast, and the secretary of South Ossetia’s Security Council, Anatoly Barankevich, is a former deputy military commissar of Stavropol Krai. So who exactly is a separatist in this government? South Ossetian “prime minister” Yury Morozov?
However, alas, I also cannot say this regime is “pro-Russian.” On the contrary, all the recent actions of Eduard Kokoity, the leader of the breakaway South Ossetian government, have run counter to the interests of Russia in the Caucasus — beginning with his embarrassing Russia in the eyes of the international community and ending with his ratcheting up the tensions in the very region where Russia might begin to come undone. South Ossetia is not a territory, not a country, not a regime. It is a joint venture of siloviki generals and Ossetian bandits for making money in a conflict with Georgia. For me, the most surprising thing in this entire story is the complete lack of any strategic goals on the part of the South Ossetians.
As soon as Russia tamped down the war in Abkhazia, tensions in South Ossetia started rising. South Ossetian forces start shelling Georgian villages, and as soon as Georgia returns fire, the airwaves are filled with accusations of “Georgian aggression.” No one pays attention to the fact that when this happens, Kokoity is not on the front lines or visiting the injured in a hospital — he’s 1,000 kilometers away in Abkhazia, apparently offering the Russian siloviki his people as hostages, as another card to be played to inflame the situation and make a few more dollars.
Again — nothing that is going on in South Ossetia makes any sense from the point of view of strategy. It only makes sense as a means of making money. And we aren’t talking about small sums. Running a gas pipeline through the mountains from Russia — a precaution in case Georgia decides to cut off the 70,000 residents — cost $570 million. And then there is the secret budget Russia has allotted for the struggle — estimated at somewhere around $800 million. And don’t forget the pensions and wages for state-sector workers, who officially number some 80,000 but whose actual numbers are not more than 30,000.
‘Terrorist State’
Whenever someone starts telling us about shelling in Tskhinvali, it is important to keep in mind exactly what Tskhinvali is. It is not a city somewhere in the middle of a republic that is being fired upon by saboteurs. On three sides, Tskhinvali is surrounded by Georgian villages. The edge of Tskhinvali is a military outpost. South Ossetian forces fire from there into the Georgian villages, and the Georgians respond with fire of their own. To help keep Georgian fire from hitting civilians in the city, all the South Ossetians would have to do is move their military base forward a couple hundred meters.
But, of course, it is a fundamental principle of terrorists the world over — set up firing points in civilian areas and then when your enemy fires on you, you gleefully parade the bodies of your own children in front of the television cameras. Kokoity’s terrorists are following this same principle. If South Ossetia can in any way be considered a state, it must be considered a terrorist state.
When we are told about “peaceful civilians” in South Ossetia, we must keep in mind that the situation there is similar to that in Palestinian refugee camps. South Ossetia, like the Palestinian Liberation Organization before it, is not a state or an ethos or a territory. It is a peculiar form of mutated government in which residents have been turned into militarized refugees. It is a quasi-armed force that is not allowed by the authorities to occupy itself with anything other than war — a situation that gives the authorities absolute power and absolute control over the money at its disposal. It is a place where the hysteria of this disfigured population is the primary means of filling the authorities’ personal coffers.
Even more surprising is the fact that the leaders of this region — despite all their talk — apparently have done very little to prepare for war and have turned out to be absolutely helpless. At the first sign of trouble, the general director of this joint venture hightailed it out of Tskhinvali. I was amazed to get news overnight that Russian journalists were hunkered down in the main government building and there wasn’t even a bomb shelter there. What does that mean? That all the money Moscow allocated for our joint venture never made it outside the Moscow ring road? They were all shouting “Wolf, wolf!” but they didn’t even manage to build a barn for the sheep?
Georgia, I think, will win in this conflict for the simple reason that it has a clear strategic goal. The Russian siloviki do not. Moreover, it turns out that these people — who are pretty good at bankrupting factories and terrorizing companies — ran without looking back when faced with a real army and all they are capable of doing is complaining to the United Nations.
War Of Lies
It would seem that the siloviki really thought that there is nothing more to war than lying. Lying about “unprovoked shelling” and about wounded “civilians” who are shown on television wearing camouflage. They are still using this tactic: What are we to make of their claims during the night that Georgian airplanes had bombed a column of humanitarian aid coming out of the Roki Tunnel between North and South Ossetia? I’d like to know who was the Russian general who — on the very night when Saakashvili had been issued a moratorium and tanks and heavy equipment were moving from Russia to Tskhinvali — decided to clog up the only road with a humanitarian convoy. If there is such an idiot, he should, at the least, be demoted to the ranks. The siloviki supposed that the war would be won by the side that lied the most. Saakashvili knew that the war would be won by the one who won the war.
The latest events prove that Russia does not control what Kokoity does. Temur Iakobashvili, the Georgian minister for reintegration, arrived recently in Tskhinvali for talks and the Russian Foreign Ministry did everything it could to facilitate them. But Kokoity simply left the city. Saakashvili announced a unilateral cease-fire and in response, to show that the joint venture needs more money, South Ossetians opened fire on the villages of Tamarasheni and Prisi. We can only hope that Georgia sees that at least some in the Kremlin do not intend to support Kokoity. You can support an ally. You can prop up a puppet. But you cannot support a joint venture that is just pumping money out of the Russian budget by means of inflaming the Caucasus.
So, I repeat — Saakashvili has bankrupted the joint venture of the Lubyanka chekisty and the Ossetian bandits. Russia, as a country, has no interest in this enterprise. And the joint venture only had one interest in Russia — the same interest that a cancerous tumor has on its host body. We can only thank Saakashvili for the chemotherapy.
The main question in the current situation is what will Russia do now. There are two choices. One would be to get entangled in a full-scale war, which is what the siloviki have been trying to force Moscow to do for the last few months. It doesn’t matter to them who wins that war or how many victims there are. The mere fact of a war will mean that the siloviki will maintain their control over Russia. In fact, a defeat for Russia would be even better for the siloviki than a victory; there would be shouts, recriminations, hysterics, and — in the end — more money.
The second scenario is that this is a chance for Medvedev and for Russia. If Russia stays out of the fighting, that would be a defeat for the siloviki. And, maybe, the complete bankruptcy not just of their branch office in South Ossetia, but of the home office on Lubyanka as well.
Yulia Latynina is a columnist for “Novaya gazeta” and a host on Ekho Moskvy. This comment was originally published by “Yezhednevny zhurnal.” The views expressed in this commentary are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of RFE/RL
/bkmark
The anti-missile system proposed may be good enough to shoot down a one-missile attack, or maybe take out most of a half-dozen-missile attack. It would not do squat against a massive Russian attack
Or are you saying that the Russian ICBMs are so badly maintained that it's likely only one or two would actually launch?
The main point is one you gloss over.
The pipeline.
It is a disaster mainly for the US. Bush was not able to deliver the goods: oil from iraq.
So then we ended up staying with the Turkey route FGS - a colossal error given that rogue state’s violent and repressive reputation.
The BTC (Baku Tbilisi Ceyhan) pipeline project got started with Ankara Declaration, signed in 1998 by Azerbaijani President Aliyev, Georgian president Shevardnadze!, and President of Kazakhstan Nazarbayev, and finally the parastate of Turkey Demirel, and Karimov of Uzbekistan.
Now get this:
The declaration was witnessed by the United States Secretary of Energy Bill Guillermo Richardson, who expressed strong support for the BTC pipeline.
Isn’t that precious...what a mess...corruption and payoffs galore -—an unmitigated disaster.
Fair enough dude. And more than most people will do, so kudos for your integrity. Besides, we may differ in opinions, but we're on the same side. USA.
This however is an interesting development. If you have not read it, I would strongly recommend it for you.
Did mercenaries help Georgia? (Russian news claming Ukraine and US troops in South Ossetia)
No. You’re quoting me out of context. I asked you to put up or shut up on your claim that US Marines were bombed in Georgia withing the last couple of days. Hell, I’ll even give you last couple of months!
So far, no links, no evidence anywhere. Instead of making wild claims, back it up with evidence.
If you can provide the evidence, I’d be happy to review it. If you can’t, I’d suggest you do the honest thing and immediately disavow your statement that US Marines were bombed in Georgia. Its dishonest, hysterical and plenty of good folk here know deployed Marines in harms way.
He did withdraw the claim. See post 299 on this thread.
Just noticed your Mea Culpa, SkyPilot. Apology accepted.
I do remember seeing a pic posted supposedly from Georgia, though date not verifiable, as part of a thread yesterday that a former USMC FReeper commented and said he was pretty certain was US Marines(in a troop transport truck).
Thankfully, I might add, that his statement was not true.
I searched and searched and didn’t find anything.
Down with the Evil Empire and God Bless the USA!
Post # 300
I glossed over the pipeline???
No it was about keeepng the oil flowing through the Straights of Hormuz for the entire industrial West, and protecting Israel.
The USA put itself ito the strategic center of the area, Iraq, and for more than just oil.
No oil is coming out of Iraq to the USA, it just doesn't have enough productiopn facilities to pipe the oil to make going to war for oi woth while.
Your argument is inane. Imaging having a swimming pool full of chocolate milksake and you having a capillary tube to suck it up. Thats the way oil is in Iraq.
We are not here for the oil, if we were, we would be running the oil fields. We are not. The government of Iraq is.
Estimates of time to bring Iraqs oil potential up to speed vary from 15 to 20 years. It will likely be longer if the fighting continues.
Here is a very good report of what is going on OUTSIDE South Ossetia. Where will Pootie-Poot stop his aggression? (Thank MarMema for the BBC link)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7552958.stm
“Don’t you mean Russia set the precedent with Chechnya?
Oh wait...”
Don’t see how. We helped legitimize the breakaway of Kosovo, encouraged and assisted it. As far as I’m concerned neither are our business, as is with the South Ossetia situation. It should stay between Georgia and Russia. If Europe believes the Georgians should be assisted, they can spill their blood for them. But the USA can, and should, stay out of the picture.
“You can bet your bottom dollar the Pentagon is watching this with keen interest.”
I’m sure they are, but it shouldn’t extend past a passing interest in Russian military capabilities and tactics. Well, off to bed I go. I’ll be interesting to see what the morning has in store....
Might be out of our hands. The GUAM organization may come to the defense of Georgia which brings Turkey into the play in defense of Azerbaijan. Then NATO and the US comes into play in defense of Turkey. That is the very dangerous game these reckless Russians are playing.
I have read several captions from this picture and no one has pointed out that she is lying on top of another dead body.
Ah right. I’ve got to extracate myself nicely here then!
I was refering to a line in one of his comments that went... ‘We don’t have a dog in this fight between Russia and Georgia’...
Just really saying that this is/was an internal affair. Although todays news from the region reads very badly for those who are after a quick and easy resolution to this. Can the Russians really invade and occupy Georgia??? IF Russia want to economically blackmail Europe as it has done to its neighbours, then this is the best way to do it...
So, it looks like we Euro’s are going to have a great deal of vested interest in the outcome here. Mr Transformer must have been a Decepticon...
“The GUAM organization may come to the defense of Georgia which brings Turkey into the play in defense of Azerbaijan. Then NATO and the US comes into play in defense of Turkey. That is the very dangerous game these reckless Russians are playing.”
I can see how it can escalate, which is why we should’ve long since been out of NATO. It should be dismanted or at least become a European-only defense organization.
After the US and the UK, Georgia has the most troops in Iraq, I’d say that makes them a fairly good ally. Where are Russian forces fighting alongside us?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.