Posted on 06/08/2008 4:15:14 PM PDT by decimon
The Electoral College determines the U S Presidency and not the popular vote. When people vote for Barrack Obama or John McCain in November 2008; in fact, they will be voting to elect an electoral college. For example, if sixteen million California voters give a majority of votes to Obama, he would be entitled to 55 Electoral College votes and McCain zero. Electoral College favored George Bush in 2004 as he won a majority of 286 Electoral College votes from 31 states, while John Kerry won 251 votes from 19 states. These Electoral College delegates met in the first week of January 2005 in Washington D.C. and declared George Bush President. Representative democracy through an Electoral College is unique to America.
The intricacies of the Electoral College system are woven into a system that has proved viable for over 200 years. John McCain and Barrack Obama are now vying for the 538 Electoral College votes in November 2008 to be the 44th President.
Obama and McCain are heading for a very tight race judging by the Electoral College map as of today. Every ten years the US Census determines how many Electoral College votes are assigned to the 50 states and Washington D.C. Remember, this year California gets 55 votes, Florida 27, Nevada 5, Texas 31 and so on. US population changes will either increase or decrease the number of Electoral College votes apportioned to each state.
By law each state is entitled to 2 seats representing the two senators and a percentage of seats from a total of 435-representing members of the House of Representatives. Thus the minimum a state can have is 2 plus 1 or 3. The maximum will depend on the population of a state in relation to the 435 seats that are apportioned among the 50 seats and the District of Colombia. States like California, Louisiana and Florida have gained seats while some North-eastern states have lost seats between 1990 and 2000 Censuses.
Electoral College is a representative form of democracy giving balanced representation to big and small states, instead of just counting all the popular votes in the country, which would favor the larger states generally. If not for the Electoral College system candidates would concentrate on the 15 most populous states and ignore all others. Now there are states are Ohio, Iowa, Virginia, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, and Michigan which come into play in getting the winning strategy for a candidate.
The 2008 electoral map looks nearly identical to 2004 the way they lean Republican or Democratic. As noted by many analysts, eighteen states won by Bush in 2004 would most likely go to McCain, while 18 states won by Kerry would go to Obama.
Fourteen states remain swing states where the outcome is not so predictable. McCain and Obama will be concentrating heavily on these 14 swing statues in order to get the ultimate victory. Campaigning would be very heavy on those states and reduced level of campaigning may occur in states that are considered pocket boroughs of the Republicans or the Democrats.
Let us look at the 8 Southern states and 16 Mountain West, North-west and few Central states in this article. Electoral votes are given under parenthesis.
South: The south is considered very favorable to McCain. Out of the eight states he is favored in six or seven. Obama may have to campaign hard to gain one or two wins from among the 8 states that the George Bush won in 2004.
Alabama (9): McCain will be safe her due to a solid Republican base. Arkansas (6): seems a Democratic stronghold in the South, Arkansas has two safe Democratic senators, and three of four congressmen are Democrats. Still, Obama will have to campaign hard to win here.
Louisiana (9): has been Republican for decades. Governor Bobby Jindal’s 2007 landslide looked like the beginning of a GOP avalanche until Democrats captured the Baton Rouge congressional seat in a special election earlier this month. It has a high black population and a probably safe Senator. Mary Landrieu (D) weighs in on Obama’s behalf. The influential sugar industry may favor Obama. It is too close to call.
Tennessee (11): This state has become more competitive than much of the South, but still a safe McCain win. Texas (34): McCain may not dominate as Bush did, but he may come through due to the solid Republican voting base. In both states Obama may be campaigning strongly trying to get a break through.
Missouri (11): is another pickup opportunity for Obama even though Bush won here twice, with a 200,000-vote victory in 2004. Obama eked out a primary win here on Super Tuesday by winning big in the areas around St. Louis and Kansas City, but he lost badly in the rural regions of the state. His appeal to black voters and suburban voters makes him a real threat, especially if McCain fails to rally Christian conservatives throughout the state. McCain holds slight leads in most polls.
Georgia (15): Obama has a good shot here even though it had not voted democratic for decades. It is leaning Republican now. This state might be in play. Mississippi (6): While Democrats can point to a special election congressional pickup here, as well as a large black population, this State may ultimately remain Republican.
Florida (27): Bush won this state narrowly after the Supreme Court ruled in his favor in 2000. Florida is looking promising for McCain early on. Obama boycotted the state and is now working to patch up relations. McCain has the edge here. The senior-citizen vote will tilt strongly towards McCain. Older, the veteran community may go McCain’s way and will be warm towards McCain. Cuban and sizeable Jewish vote will decide this state. Republican governor Charlie Crist is very popular-he might be McCain’s running mate. This will be one of the hardest fought states in 2008.
The 16 Western, Mountain-West and some Central States offer slightly better prospects for Obama compared to Kerry who fared badly in 2004. Of the 16 states analyzed 5 are expected to go Democratic and 8 Republican. Three are in play but leaning Republican. Kerry won only 4 out of 16 in 2004.
California (55): has not voted Republican in ages. Hillary Clinton won this primary in February. It will go Obama in November.
Hawaii (4): Obama will dominate his native state in November as he dominated it in March. McCain may not campaign here too much.
Colorado (9): Bush won here in 2004 by 100,000 votes out of 2.1 million, but Colorado has leaned Democratic this year. In 2006, Democrats took over a Senate seat, the governorship, and a U.S. House seat. They might pick up the second Senate seat this year. . With the Democratic National Convention in Denver stirring liberal excitement, Colorado, it is generally accepted, Obama has the best chance here to turn tables.
Nevada (5): A prime chance for Obama to pick off some electors, Bush won only with 50% in both elections here. A significant libertarian turnout here is very possible. Immigration will play crucial role -- given the 20% Hispanic population and some resentment of unchecked immigration, the issue could cut both ways. Some say that Nevada could become McCain’s most precarious state. It is his to lose.
Arizona (10): Bush advisor Karl Rove worried about Arizona in the past, in part because of the immigrant influx. But this is McCain’s home state, and he will carry it easily. It is solidly Republican.
South Dakota (3): This is a McCain shoo-in. Solidly Republican. Obama lost the primary to Clinton here. North Dakota (3): Bush twice won with more than 60% here. While McCain may not do as well, he should walk away with this one.
Utah (5): Utah is the most Republican state in the nation. This is solidly Republican.
Oregon (7): Oregon is not an overwhelmingly Democratic state, but it has strong liberal populations that will rally around Obama. McCain may campaign heavily here hoping to have an upset. It is strongly leaning Democratic.
Washington (11): This western state had voted democratic for 16 years. Obama’s strength here will make this very difficult for McCain. Kerry had a narrow win in 2004.
Alaska (3): Democrats could possibly steal a House and Senate seat due to charges of corruption against some incumbents. McCain doesn’t help himself by opposing drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Reserve (ANWR). Most predict that state will go Republican even with all that.
Minnesota (10): in central US: Although John Kerry won Minnesota by less than 100,000 votes, Republicans may not be within striking distance here. Minnesota was one of Obama’s strongest states, thanks to a strong liberal core in the Democrat-Farm-Labor Party that will provide enthusiasm and turnout in 2008. Republicans will hold their convention here. It is leaning Democratic now.
Nebraska (5): Nebraska apportions one elector per congressional district, plus two electors to the statewide winner. McCain should win all five electors, solidly Republican.
Idaho (4): This state is too pro-gun and pro-life to vote for Obama. Bush won 2-to-1 here twice. This year won’t be much different. This is solidly Republican.
Montana (3): Montana looks safe for McCain. It has been voting Republican for decades even though Obama made some gains here during the primacy contest.
Kansas (6): The Kansas may provide an upset if Obama makes Governor Kathleen Sebelius his running mate. Obama dominated the caucuses here. It is leaning Republican
Kentucky (8): This state is trending Democratic in some ways, and Obama claims to have strong inroads into the southern parts, but his inability to win rural white voters in the primary here demonstrates that the commonwealth is not really in play this year. It is leaning Republican.
Electoral votes are only consequential when the popular vote is close. Lose the popular vote by 10 points, or even by three, and the discussion is merely academic — the popular- and the electoral-vote winner will be the same. But five of the last 12 presidential elections produced margins narrow enough that the popular and electoral votes could have diverged.
Continued: 26 remaining states will be analyzed tomorrow.
What, and FR is chopped liver? ;)
There’s a lot of electoral analysis out there right now, not much of it is very thorough. Plus most want to make it out to be a race. But really, Mccain has a pretty good advantage. He can lose, of course, but it’s not currently as close as most people make it look.
I’m wondering how Coloradans feel about their new law allowing males to use female restrooms and vice versa. Genuflecting to the GLBT agenda may push this state back to the more Conservative side. We can hope. I’m thinking California will be more of a battleground than usual. Both sides will be out in force and voting due to the Gay Marriage issue on our ballot this November.
PING
No, but the kiddies might be confused by the arguments over whether the Electoral College is Creationist or Darwinist.
uh...nope.
The election is 5 months away.....a helluva lot can, and will change in the upcoming months.
Five months is an eternity in polotics.
I believe in the end, McCain will have more than enough electoral college votes to win the presidency.
I thought California already rejected that - is this a perrenial ballot question, keep asking until they say "YES"?
The election will be decided in these states - Arkansas, Missouri, Iowa, Kansas, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. Bush won all of them in 2004. Only Kansas looks remotely solid this time.
McCain can't lose more than 2 of them - and still needs to hold Ohio, as well. He has to invade places like Pennsylvannia and Michigan successfully, if he doesn't sweep most of these Mississippi valley and the weaker west states.
Isolationism is a big vote getter in the middle of the country. McCain can probably hold the southwest states through Hispanic voters, and maybe Colorado through green-ery, at some cost in conservative policy in both cases. But he is against ethanol and in favor of war, in an election being decided in St. Louis and its immediate neighbors.
This isn't going to be easy. Obama is the clear favorite right now. I don't like this, but there it is, that is what we are up against.
This one seems to indicate Kansas is in play. Nonsense.
Even if Sebelius is Obama’s running mate, KS will vote for McCain. Period.
Barack Obama is for getting rid of the Electoral College asap, while, as far as I know, John McCain isn’t for getting rid of it. Truly getting rid of it would take away the political clout of all fifty states and would only allow the most populated states to always be the ones who completely decide who the POTUS will be.
“Continued: 26 remaining states will be analyzed tomorrow.”
Ooooo, I wait with bated breath.
5 months ago Hillary was a sure thing.
I thought this from the article interesting: "The intricacies of the Electoral College system are woven into a system that has proved viable for over 200 years."
Where does the idea the Electoral College meets in Washington come from?
The Electoral College does not meet as a body. Each state’s electors meet in the state capitals and inform the Congress of the results of their votes by mail.
I.e., how should we determine the winner of the World Series?
Shall it be the team which wins four out of seven games? Or shall it be the team which scores the most runs over the course of seven games?
Obama will beat McCain. Mark my words.
There ya go!
The next president is going to be whoever the liberal MSM wants it to be. The "media" created B. Hussein Obama as a way for them to get back at America for the patriotism and unity that Americans displayed after 9-11-01. It's no accident that the black candidate they created has a Muzzie name.
Well, I've always waited until the third period of the fourth quarter, and bases loaded, before I cast my vote.
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