Posted on 02/25/2008 4:28:29 PM PST by jdm
So we have been treated of late to the usual chorus of claims that the GOP is doomed, doomed I tell you, at the polls if McCain faces Obama. Well, Rasmussen's daily tracker has McCain pulling ahead of Obama the past 4 days, and now up 47-43 in a national head-to-head matchup. The RCP multi-poll average still gives a 47-43 nod to Obama. (McCain's matchup with Hillary is more favorable). But if you looked at polls taken between January 28 and March 7 of 2004, you would see Kerry leading Bush in 15 polls, to 7 showing Bush ahead and 3 ties, and an unweighted average result of 47.48 for Kerry to 45.2 for Bush. Gerald Ford trailed by 33 points in August and lost by 2. (H/T) George HW Bush trailed by 17 in July and won by a healthy margin. Those are the most famous examples, but hardly the only ones.
But, you say, huge primary turnout for the Democrats presages a landslide? Maybe, but Democrats traditionally have much higher primary turnout than the GOP:
That's right: Democratic turnout in the primaries was 47% higher than GOP turnout in 1980, and 89% higher in 1988. Any Democrats looking to replay those races?
Folks, it's a long way to November. Yes, you can slice and dice the polls cited above to make the point that polling (1) has its flaws and (2) can be badly abused if you don't distinguish between good polls and bad. And that's even aside from the fact that these are national polls whereas the election is actually 50 statewide elections. But the point is, there is simply no evidence right now that Obama, whose real record is very unknown to the national electorate and who has never run a campaign against anything resembling a competent Republican opponent, has this race in the bag. He may justifiably be favored over McCain, if you had to put money on this race today. But he is not unbeatable, or if he is the evidence of that is as yet undetectable.
I believe that Obama would beat John McCain. It’s why I’ve been cautioning people for months now that it’s in our best interest to hope Hillary gets the nomination. I’ve been questioned on this by those who can’t see that Obama is worse and far more likely to win the general, those who just want the Clintons gone no matter what the cost, and those who secretly support Obama.
The bottom line is this - Rock, paper, scissors. McCain beats Clinton. Obama beats McCain. Clinton beats nobody. Obama will sweep into power with him Democratic legislators down the ticket as his cultists show up en masse to vote dem.
“Conservatives” have enjoyed their little love affair with Obama at Hillary’s expense. I suppose they should be congratulated - they may have helped cost us the general.
I’ve been extremely lukewarm on the Republican party lately, but an Obama candidacy forces my hand. I have to vote for McCain. I don’t appreciate being put in the lesser of two evils scenario again, but against the devestation Obama would bring into power with him I will gladly pull that lever for McCain. If Hillary were the democrat nominee or Giuliani the Republican nominee I would just stay home. But the Cult of Obama will require each of us to do our utmost to stop him.
I dislike McCain intensly but Obama can’t beat anybody except Hillary.
. . .
Certainly that is the best-case scenario.Even if he picked a VP nominee who wouldn't run in '12.
I know some would think it futile to do, but were I McCain and thinking only about winning in '08, I might nominate Thomas Sowell - who's older than McCain, and really wouldn't be able to campaign much - for VP. That would get conservatives on board, and spike any talk that a vote for McCain is a racist vote against a black.
Wouldn't win much of the black vote, but it would make a lot of white people feel good about themselves for wanting to vote for him . . . which would IMHO make a critical difference in the campaign. I would expect that ticket to run very well. Sowell would campaign - very leisurely, in conservative territory. And just preach a patriotic gospel - and say why Obama is not a patriot.
A looooong way. I believe it is McCain's race to lose, regardless of the Democrat that wins the nomination. What is not obvious is that this love fest is just a parade with a beginning and an end. The real race is around the corner. Whether one likes McCain or not, he can take a punch.
So far, Obama has gotten a free ride, without much DEEP background vetting.
Some of this might really take the glow off of his halo.
FOR EXAMPLE: Barack's terrorist buddies.
None of this will matter. This will be an election decided by emotion, not thought. Look at the overwhelming black support for Marion Barry. It did not matter what he did. In fact, the worse, the better. All that matters is that Obama is black. This will draw even those blacks who never before bothered to the polls, plus a lot of guilty white votes and a lot of people who simply share his Marxist ideals. If by some miracle McCain wins, expect serious rioting.
Also, no one will dare dig up the dirt on him or ask him inconvenient questions because anyone who does will be shouted down as racist. Look, even Hillary is forced to hold her punches. Can you imagine a cartoon of Obama with monkey ears, like the ones they have been drawing on Bush? No way! He is untouchable.
The only place I differ slightly is regarding the internal battles ahead for the Dems...it could be more explosive than you think. We have race, gender, and Bubba...you can't make this stuff up! :)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1975778/posts?page=69#69
In 52 seconds why Obama will not win a general election!
Me too! — A good one to use in a pro-American ad!
BTTT
Obama is untouchable now—but the day will come he will be mocked and branded an oreo cookie. His supporters will find him less about change than a re-packaged Ted Kennedy.
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