Posted on 02/25/2008 4:28:29 PM PST by jdm
So we have been treated of late to the usual chorus of claims that the GOP is doomed, doomed I tell you, at the polls if McCain faces Obama. Well, Rasmussen's daily tracker has McCain pulling ahead of Obama the past 4 days, and now up 47-43 in a national head-to-head matchup. The RCP multi-poll average still gives a 47-43 nod to Obama. (McCain's matchup with Hillary is more favorable). But if you looked at polls taken between January 28 and March 7 of 2004, you would see Kerry leading Bush in 15 polls, to 7 showing Bush ahead and 3 ties, and an unweighted average result of 47.48 for Kerry to 45.2 for Bush. Gerald Ford trailed by 33 points in August and lost by 2. (H/T) George HW Bush trailed by 17 in July and won by a healthy margin. Those are the most famous examples, but hardly the only ones.
But, you say, huge primary turnout for the Democrats presages a landslide? Maybe, but Democrats traditionally have much higher primary turnout than the GOP:
That's right: Democratic turnout in the primaries was 47% higher than GOP turnout in 1980, and 89% higher in 1988. Any Democrats looking to replay those races?
Folks, it's a long way to November. Yes, you can slice and dice the polls cited above to make the point that polling (1) has its flaws and (2) can be badly abused if you don't distinguish between good polls and bad. And that's even aside from the fact that these are national polls whereas the election is actually 50 statewide elections. But the point is, there is simply no evidence right now that Obama, whose real record is very unknown to the national electorate and who has never run a campaign against anything resembling a competent Republican opponent, has this race in the bag. He may justifiably be favored over McCain, if you had to put money on this race today. But he is not unbeatable, or if he is the evidence of that is as yet undetectable.
I’m not a big fan of McCain’s-but if a bunch of little pukes in black pajamas couldn’t destroy him barack osama won’t.
thank you for the perspective of real numbers
Obama’s dirty laundry hasn’t been exposed yet nor has anyone dug into his background. IMO, there’s plenty to be exposed so the American public get a good idea what a Liberal traitor he is and just how dangerous he would be to our security, freedom, and our children and grandchildren’s futures. Buyer/voter beware!!!
I don’t think Obama will destroy McCain, at least I hope not.
Exactly.
I bet Hillary will pull out all the stops before/if she gives in.
There might not be much left of Obama come November.
...like a DRUM, baby! Like a drum.
I’m not convinced that a lot of Hillary’s voters will vote for Obama in the general election. I also think some of Obama’s support may evaporate in the general.
Judicial Watch Announces List of Washington’s “Ten Most Wanted Corrupt Politicians” for 2007
Washington, DC -Judicial Watch, the public interest group that investigates and prosecutes government corruption, today released its 2007 list of Washington’s “Ten Most Wanted Corrupt Politicians.” The list, in alphabetical order, includes:
1. Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY): In addition to her long and sordid ethics record, Senator Hillary Clinton took a lot of heat in 2007 - and rightly so - for blocking the release her official White House records. Many suspect these records contain a treasure trove of information related to her role in a number of serious Clinton-era scandals. Moreover, in March 2007, Judicial Watch filed an ethics complaint against Senator Clinton for filing false financial disclosure forms with the U.S. Senate (again). And Hillary’s top campaign contributor, Norman Hsu, was exposed as a felon and a fugitive from justice in 2007. Hsu pleaded guilt to one count of grand theft for defrauding investors as part of a multi-million dollar Ponzi scheme.
8. Senator Barack Obama (D-IL): A “Dishonorable Mention” last year, Senator Obama moves onto the “ten most wanted” list in 2007. In 2006, it was discovered that Obama was involved in a suspicious real estate deal with an indicted political fundraiser, Antoin “Tony” Rezko. In 2007, more reports surfaced of deeper and suspicious business and political connections It was reported that just two months after he joined the Senate, Obama purchased $50,0 00 worth of stock in speculative companies whose major investors were his biggest campaign contributors. One of the companies was a biotech concern that benefited from legislation Obama pushed just two weeks after the senator purchased $5,000 of the company’s shares. Obama was also nabbed conducting campaign business in his Senate office, a violation of federal law.
If the MeCain camp studies up on history, they can get ahead of the curve.
47-43, and this is with wall to wall positive coverage for Che Obama, and Mad John with a fractured base?
That is not bad at all, and Hilde will go Scorched Earth before she ever just rolls over and plays dead, the Dhimmis are in for a bloody fight indeed.
McCain on the other hand, can now consolidate as much as possible his support, but BOTH Nominees will be infected with “Senatoritis” meaning no one can tell them anything.
I’d say the fact that Barry is riding as high as he is now in the polls on the Dem side, drawing huge crowds, and the subject of a fawning media, and still losing to McCain - , is a relatively positive sign right now. These head to head polls are fairly meaningless, but right now the GOP as a party is down, McCain has been wildly unpopular among the right, and Obama is trouncing the shrew. Despite all those factors, the fact that McCain is slightly ahead is very promising.
Though he should be helped by people's Obama-fanaticism waning--he can't be the apple of modern Americans' eyes indefinitely.
I’m not a McCain fan (obviously, if anyone’s been reading my posts), but he would likely beat Obama.
Let’s see where we are in October.
>>Obama’s dirty laundry hasn’t been exposed yet nor has anyone dug into his background.
This guy has a pretty good start:
http://www.freedomsenemies.com/_more/obama.htm
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.