Posted on 09/20/2007 2:41:32 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
After officially declaring his candidacy, U.S. Senator Fred Thompson moves ahead of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani in the race for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination. One-third (32%) of those who say they will vote in a Republican primary or caucus will vote for Thompson while 28 percent will vote for Giuliani. Much further back is John McCain, who continues his downward slide with 11 percent saying they would vote for the Arizona Senator, and 9 percent who say they would vote for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.
On the Democratic side, Senator Hillary Clinton continues to build on her large lead. Just under half (46%) of those who would vote in a Democratic primary or caucus would vote for the former First Lady while one-quarter (25%) would vote for Illinois Senator Barack Obama. Former vice president candidate and North Carolina Senator John Edwards is further back with 14 percent saying they would vote for him. No other candidate is in double digits.
These are some of the results of a Harris Poll of 2,372 U.S. adults surveyed online by Harris Interactive® between September 6 and 14, 2007. This survey included 769 adults who expect to vote in a Democratic primary or caucus and 504 adults who expect to vote in a Republican primary or caucus. Like all polls conducted well before an election, this should not be read as a prediction. Rather, it is a snap shot of the presidential “horse race”, at an early stage in the race.
Votes by Generation
One interesting difference is the support of the different generations. On the Democratic side, Senator Obama does better than Senator Clinton among Echo Boomers (those aged 18 to 29). While 42 percent of this youngest generation will vote for him, 37 percent will vote for her. However, in the age group that is most likely to actually vote, Matures (those 61 and older), Senator Clinton leads Senator Obama by a very wide margin (56% versus 16%). In fact, one in five Matures (21%) will vote for John Edwards, so he is ahead of Senator Obama as well in this key age group.
On the Republican side a similar difference occurs. One-third (33%) of both Echo Boomers and Generation Xers (30 to 41) will vote for Rudy Giuliani while Fred Thompson garners just 8 percent and 22 percent of these generations respectively. But, again among those generations more likely to vote, Fred Thompson is ahead. It is close among Baby Boomers (those aged 42 to 60) as one-third (33%) of this generation will vote for Giuliani and 37 percent will vote for Thompson. Among Matures, the lead is greater – 44 percent will vote for Thompson and 16 percent will vote for Giuliani. Interestingly, one in five (20%) of the youngest generation, Echo Boomers, say they will vote for the oldest candidate, John McCain.
Consideration
Before being asked to pick their first choice in the primary elections, all adults surveyed were also shown a list of all the main candidates in both parties and some other well-known Republicans and Democrats, and asked which of them they would consider voting for. They could name as many people, in both parties, as they wished. On the Democratic side, three-quarters of Democrats (76%) would consider Hillary Clinton while over half (58%) would consider Barack Obama and just under half (48%) would consider Al Gore. Among Independents, it’s a tie as 35 percent would consider Hillary Clinton and 34 percent would consider Barack Obama.
On the Republican side, just over half (52%) of Republicans would consider Rudy Giuliani and just under half (46%) would consider Fred Thompson. The next two Republicans are not even candidates as 39 percent of Republicans would consider former Secretary of State Colin Powell and 34 percent would consider current Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. Among Independents, 28 percent would each consider Rudy Giuliani and Colin Powell while one-quarter (23%) would consider John McCain and 20 percent Fred Thompson. Overall, more would consider a Democratic candidate over a Republican candidate but the gap has narrowed. In May, 71 percent would consider one of the Democratic candidates while 58 percent would consider one of the Republicans – a gap of 13 percent. Over the summer this has narrowed and today the gap is just six points – 66 percent would consider a Democratic leader and 60 percent would consider a Republican leader.
So What?
Now that Fred Thompson has ended his “flirtation” with the presidential race, it will be interesting to watch as he participates in debates and is actually campaigning. Does his rise to the top hold or was it pure star power? Time will tell. On the Democratic side, it appears that the race really is Hillary Clinton’s to lose at this point as her ever expanding lead is now at 21 percent. The two running in second place for each party’s nomination currently are tops with the youngest of voters. Barack Obama feels like one of them – his youth and vitality are something they can latch onto and relate to. Rudy Giuliani is one the main figures from the one major national event that has shaped their lives so far – September 11th. They feel drawn to him because of that. But, as both camps are aware, these youngest voters actually vote in the lowest of numbers. Can either campaign translate their popularity into turnout come primary or caucus day?
(See site for actual poll breakdown)
And Thompson’s campaign has been official for precisely two weeks. To the day.
I just don't understand this complaint, which seems to be that Thompson is not as ambitious as Julius Caesar!
the seven dwarves need to get off the stage
GO FRED
What is the ticket for the Republicans that YOU would recommend as being able to prevent the Hildabeast from bringing the furniture and silverware back to the WH in ‘08?
Bob Taft destroyed the voterbase in Ohio with his taxing the crap out of 'em, and Voinovich/DeWhiner (prototype RINO's) further alienated the voters. That's what allowed Socialist Sherrod Browne to win (defeating Dewine easily, largely due to Dewhine's joining the defectors to the "Gang of 14" during the Alito confirmation hearings).
Ohio now is inhabited by entitlements' receivers and moonbats, and we have ACORN packing the vote for the Dim's.
Thompson has appeal to the guy-on-the-street and joe six-pack types, and might have a chance to at least make a run at it (winning Ohio).
Beyond Thompson's broad appeal as a guy-next-door, there's no one else that could win Ohio back in the current crop of Republican candidates, IMHO.
I agree. Hunter would NOT be a good VP choice. He can’t win outside a single congressional district. He’s a good person, but there are a lot of good people. A lot of them are here in FR.
But Fred needs someone who will help him win in ‘08. Hunter is NOT that someone.
I posted when obama announced that he was peaking way too early. :es toast now. We just need a ticket to beat Hitlery!
Bush in an unpopular war won ohio in 2004.
Looks like Thompson getting ion “late” REALLY hurt him!
LOL
They both will just vote dim... as they always do.
LLS
Fred Thompson ‘08!
254+20-11=263
If California adopts the Maine Method, maybe we won’t need Ohio...
More importantly, which states can Hillary win?
“Begin prep now for a Thompson/Hunter ticket”
That would be a winning combo, though I can’t get the thought out of my head that if you switched names, you’d get the name of “gonzo” journalist Hunter Thompson.
How accurate is this kind of poll? Is it any better than the on-line polls where anyone who wants to vote can?
Candi
“Fred leading in another state: Colorado!”
Good news, even though I prefer Tancredo. Have to be a realist, though.
He should have screamed: “Senator Kerry, Save Me!”
THAT would be the conservative dream ticket. Unfortunately, it's not politically realistic. He has to be able to draw large numbers of DEMS and independant moderates in order to win. Kennedy picked Johnson solely because he could deliver Texas. Otherwise they had almost nothing in common and actually rather disliked each other. If Hunter could reliably be predicted to deliver California, then it's a lock. But no 'Pubbie can guarantee The Republic of Kalifornia. Thompson will choose somebody moderate and who can deliver votes. I love Fred, but I know he's a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and so I recognize that his vp and entire cabinet will be first vetted by them as it's been since 1929. Fact of life. Scrutinize every administration since FDR and you'll reach the same conclusion.
Well, this is fantastic. For ANY GOP candidate to be over 30% in a field with so many candidates is good, but for a conservative to be there, well, so much the better. I truly wish McLame and the dwarfs would drop out so we could see how the Rudy/Fred breakdown will really play out. But Fred has to be mucho happy (little Spanish lingo there).
Also interesting.
And note that independents will consider voting for Rudy or Fred, but no one else on the GOP side.
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