254+20=274=
Nobody should be nominated without a plan to solve that equation.
Posted on 09/20/2007 2:41:32 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
After officially declaring his candidacy, U.S. Senator Fred Thompson moves ahead of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani in the race for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination. One-third (32%) of those who say they will vote in a Republican primary or caucus will vote for Thompson while 28 percent will vote for Giuliani. Much further back is John McCain, who continues his downward slide with 11 percent saying they would vote for the Arizona Senator, and 9 percent who say they would vote for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.
On the Democratic side, Senator Hillary Clinton continues to build on her large lead. Just under half (46%) of those who would vote in a Democratic primary or caucus would vote for the former First Lady while one-quarter (25%) would vote for Illinois Senator Barack Obama. Former vice president candidate and North Carolina Senator John Edwards is further back with 14 percent saying they would vote for him. No other candidate is in double digits.
These are some of the results of a Harris Poll of 2,372 U.S. adults surveyed online by Harris Interactive® between September 6 and 14, 2007. This survey included 769 adults who expect to vote in a Democratic primary or caucus and 504 adults who expect to vote in a Republican primary or caucus. Like all polls conducted well before an election, this should not be read as a prediction. Rather, it is a snap shot of the presidential “horse race”, at an early stage in the race.
Votes by Generation
One interesting difference is the support of the different generations. On the Democratic side, Senator Obama does better than Senator Clinton among Echo Boomers (those aged 18 to 29). While 42 percent of this youngest generation will vote for him, 37 percent will vote for her. However, in the age group that is most likely to actually vote, Matures (those 61 and older), Senator Clinton leads Senator Obama by a very wide margin (56% versus 16%). In fact, one in five Matures (21%) will vote for John Edwards, so he is ahead of Senator Obama as well in this key age group.
On the Republican side a similar difference occurs. One-third (33%) of both Echo Boomers and Generation Xers (30 to 41) will vote for Rudy Giuliani while Fred Thompson garners just 8 percent and 22 percent of these generations respectively. But, again among those generations more likely to vote, Fred Thompson is ahead. It is close among Baby Boomers (those aged 42 to 60) as one-third (33%) of this generation will vote for Giuliani and 37 percent will vote for Thompson. Among Matures, the lead is greater – 44 percent will vote for Thompson and 16 percent will vote for Giuliani. Interestingly, one in five (20%) of the youngest generation, Echo Boomers, say they will vote for the oldest candidate, John McCain.
Consideration
Before being asked to pick their first choice in the primary elections, all adults surveyed were also shown a list of all the main candidates in both parties and some other well-known Republicans and Democrats, and asked which of them they would consider voting for. They could name as many people, in both parties, as they wished. On the Democratic side, three-quarters of Democrats (76%) would consider Hillary Clinton while over half (58%) would consider Barack Obama and just under half (48%) would consider Al Gore. Among Independents, it’s a tie as 35 percent would consider Hillary Clinton and 34 percent would consider Barack Obama.
On the Republican side, just over half (52%) of Republicans would consider Rudy Giuliani and just under half (46%) would consider Fred Thompson. The next two Republicans are not even candidates as 39 percent of Republicans would consider former Secretary of State Colin Powell and 34 percent would consider current Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. Among Independents, 28 percent would each consider Rudy Giuliani and Colin Powell while one-quarter (23%) would consider John McCain and 20 percent Fred Thompson. Overall, more would consider a Democratic candidate over a Republican candidate but the gap has narrowed. In May, 71 percent would consider one of the Democratic candidates while 58 percent would consider one of the Republicans – a gap of 13 percent. Over the summer this has narrowed and today the gap is just six points – 66 percent would consider a Democratic leader and 60 percent would consider a Republican leader.
So What?
Now that Fred Thompson has ended his “flirtation” with the presidential race, it will be interesting to watch as he participates in debates and is actually campaigning. Does his rise to the top hold or was it pure star power? Time will tell. On the Democratic side, it appears that the race really is Hillary Clinton’s to lose at this point as her ever expanding lead is now at 21 percent. The two running in second place for each party’s nomination currently are tops with the youngest of voters. Barack Obama feels like one of them – his youth and vitality are something they can latch onto and relate to. Rudy Giuliani is one the main figures from the one major national event that has shaped their lives so far – September 11th. They feel drawn to him because of that. But, as both camps are aware, these youngest voters actually vote in the lowest of numbers. Can either campaign translate their popularity into turnout come primary or caucus day?
(See site for actual poll breakdown)
Good idea. Begin prep now for a Thompson/Hunter ticket, which would be formidable AND Conservative.
Take a look at the website, if you haven’t already. Those generational numbers are interesting.
Ping!
Unfortunately, I don’t think these numbers mean squat, yet. Still a long way to go. Don’t taze me, bro!
“Don’t taze me, bro!”
LOL Tazer Boy. What an overacting wuss.
Formidable how?
Of John Kerry's 254 EVs, which states can a Thompson/Hunter ticket win?
Can it win Ohio, Missouri, and Florida?
Ohio, which just elected a radical leftist Senator? Missouri, which retired the moderate Jim Talent?
Florida, with its RINO economic fantasist governor?
What is the FDT/Hunter plan for victory?
I see that Bill O’ Reilly is giving away “Don’t taze me, bro” bumperstickers with an order from his store...
It would just be a dream come true, wouldn't it? (See the tag line.)
Just win, baby.
I surrender.
This just in—Fred leading in another state: Colorado!
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/co/colorado_republican_primary-406.html
Run, FRed, Run!!
This post is a dead repeat of a prior post (yours?) and that one was answered as well.
Florida will vote for Hillary! when pigs fly, period.
Ohio, unlike Florida, is turning more blue, and I do not know if any GOP candidate can win there.
Hey, wait a minute! I just read that Dick Morris says that Fred is in way over his head, that he’s lazy, unfocused, can’t speak “his way out of a paper bag,” and lacks enthusiasm.
I can’t imagine what kind of poll numbers Fred could rack up if he was in charge, energetic, focused, articulate, and engaged. He could very well be up by several percent over his nearest competitor.
And, so he is.
I wonder if Morris, Will, and some of the other ankle biting pundits would like some soy sauce with their meal of crow.
But Fred did it wrong. His campaign is falling apart. He waited too long. He does not have the right people. He wears the wrong shoes. Fred can’t be winning.
Dick Morris & George Will: “Are you gonna believe us or your own lying eyes?”
Too bad Fred got into the race too late and lacks the fire in the belly to succeed....
Might as well not fight it. New tag-line.
254+20=274=
Nobody should be nominated without a plan to solve that equation.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.