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Threat Matrix: September 2007
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Posted on 09/01/2007 6:24:54 PM PDT by nwctwx

:::FreeRepublic's Threat Matrix:::
The Birth of al Qaedastan

In the year 2016, the world may find itself gloomily marking September 6 as the tenth anniversary of the creation of the Islamic Emirate of Waziristan. The Emirate received de facto recognition when the Taliban used the name on the ceasefire agreement they signed with Pakistan on that day in 2006. If things go terribly wrong in the coming decade, they could come to rule a mountainous fragment of Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The Emirate would be a nightmare state: Osama bin Laden as sultan, Ayman al Zawahiri as vizier, and Mullah Omar the spiritual leader. An economy built on smuggling and heroin. Primary export: terrorism. Welcome to ‘Al Qaedastan’.

Analysts say the rise of a terrorist state straddling the rugged area between Pakistan and Afghanistan is now viable. The reason is a number of troubling trends. One, the revival of a Taliban firmly in the control of Al Qaeda. Two, the seeming inability of either Kabul or Islamabad to defeat the new threat militarily. Three, and the most striking, the Taliban’s systematic supplanting of the traditional tribal leadership in the area. Full story...

Critical Threats: Blank When None
Threat Matrix:
September 2007
Click for Color Code Information


TOPICS: Extended News; Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: 911; afghanistan; ahmadinejad; alqaeda; alqaida; binladen; bus; denmark; germany; globaljihad; hamas; hezbollah; hizballah; hizbullah; hizbuttahrir; ht; iran; iraq; israel; jihad; jihadunion; lebanon; mexico; pakistan; phosgene; russia; september112001; sixthanniversary; spain; styphnicacid; syria; taleban; taliban; terrorism; threatmatrix; ubl; un; unmovic; videotape; wisconsin
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To: All

http://www.memri.org/syria.html

#

QUOTE:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1891316/posts?page=137#137

blog:

http://littlegreenfootballs.com/weblog/?entry=26966_German_Terror_Plot-_Connected_to_Syria&only

“German Terror Plot: Connected to Syria?”
Sat, Sep 8, 2007 at 11:34:07 am PST

###

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/08/world/europe/08investigation.html?ei=5090&en=54970293123f909e&ex=1346904000&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss&pagewanted=all

“Germany Debates Security Measures”
By JUDY DEMPSEY and KATRIN BENNHOLD
Published: September 8, 2007

BERLIN, Sept. 7 —

ARTICLE SNIPPET: “Mr. Beckstein said the nationality of some of the other suspects was still unclear, and two are only known by their aliases, making it impossible to know their origins or whereabouts. He declined to identify by name any of the suspects still at large but said that two other suspects were known to have spent time in Lebanon and Syria and that the detonators found in Tuesday’s raids had come from Syria.

Investigators have evidence that four of them helped prepare the bomb plot in various ways, including renting cars, helping with travel arrangements and financing, Mr. Beckstein said. The evidence against three others is less conclusive and would not allow for an arrest at this stage he said.

Mr. Beckstein said the current case was proof that Germany’s Turkish community was not immune from radicalization.”

137 posted on 09/08/2007 3:30:31 PM PDT by Cindy


641 posted on 09/08/2007 3:32:25 PM PDT by Cindy
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To: Oorang

Yes, what sweet hearts.


642 posted on 09/08/2007 3:33:24 PM PDT by Cindy
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To: nwctwx

Thanks, Ian. I always pay attention when Michael Scheuer is on. Don’t always agree with him, but I find myself drawn to what he says.....and agreeing more often than not.

(He must have had a southern Mama or a military Dad. His manners are impeccable. He never fails to say “Sir” and “Mam”.


643 posted on 09/08/2007 3:42:44 PM PDT by Rushmore Rocks
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Iran Rejects U.S. Ruling on 1983 Attack
Sep 8,2007

TEHRAN, Iran -- Iran on Saturday rejected a U.S. federal judge's ruling that the Islamic Republic must pay $2.65 billion to the families of the 241 U.S. service members killed in the 1983 bombing of the U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut.

SNIP:
"The American judge's ruling is baseless," the official IRNA news agency quoted government spokesman Gholam Hossein Elham as saying. "Americans have taken repeated measures contrary to legal principles. ... This ruling against Iran is politically motivated and the result of pressures."

Excerpted

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/I/IRAN_US_TERRORISM?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2007-09-08-18-27-17

Syria Will Retaliate
26 Elul 5767, September 9, '07

Syrian Vice President Farouk a-Shara said Saturday night that it was almost guaranteed that Syria would retaliate for Israel's alleged violation of the country's air space last Thursday- but that he could not specify yet what form that retaliation would take.

Speaking in an interview with the Italian newspaper Le Repubblica, a-Shara said of Syria's response, "I cannot reveal the details, as this is an issue of national security. All I can say is that the military and political echelon is looking into a series of responses as we speak. Results are forthcoming." A-Shara was visiting Italy for meetings with Prime Minister Romano Prodi and other officials.

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/Flash.aspx/132973

644 posted on 09/08/2007 3:44:26 PM PDT by Oorang (Tyranny thrives best where government need not fear the wrath of an armed people - Alex Kozinski)
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To: Cindy; Oorang
I agree.

What worries me is how we can reach those people before it’s too late.

Hey, (silly mode), what if I posted signs with some famous Mohammad sayings, like “Slay the Jews”, on the window of my car.

After all, it’s from the Koran, can’t I paste it to my window?

There is a guy in my city who drives a van plastered with Christian messages, and no one stops him.

/S**t disturbing

645 posted on 09/08/2007 3:46:14 PM PDT by fanfan ("We don't start fights my friends, but we finish them, and never leave until our work is done."PMSH)
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To: nwctwx

” . . .In the video, bin Laden also discusses current events but issues no direct threats, and offers two ways of ending the Iraq war, according to a transcript released by the US-based SITE Intelligence Group which monitors Islamic militant websites. “The first is from our side, and it is to continue to escalate the killing and fighting against you,” he says. The second is to do away with the US democratic system of government, which he says merely serves the interests of major corporations. “Your security is in your own hands. And every state that doesn’t play with our security has automatically guaranteed its own security,” he says, adding: Allah is our Guardian and helper, while you have no guardian or helper.” . . .”

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/sections/news/070907_bin_laden_transcript.pdf

” . . .the leader of Texas doesn’t like those who give advice.

. . .they have declared the approach of the collapse of the American empire. Among them is the European thinker who anticipated the fall of the Soviet Union, which indeed fell. And it would benefit you to read what he wrote about what comes after the empire in regard to the United States of America.”

The AFP writer seems to have pulled the “every state that doesn’t play with our security has automatically guaranteed its own security” quote from the 10/29/2004 pre-election speech (UBL’s last “Message to the American People”). I reread the transcript of this new speech and cannot find it repeated, but it is worth recalling the 2004 speech in any case since this latest speech named a single state (Texas), which incidentally has three of the ten largest cities - - Houston (4), San Antonio (7), and Dallas (9). Austin is ranked 16.

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0763098.html

If they want to concentrate their attacks on a central location (like they do with car bombs), and they hold to UBL’s apparent 2004 promise literally (to potentially go after the 2004 red states in retaliation and reward 2004 blue states by “guaranteeing” their security), then they may give NYC and DC a pass this coming round and concentrate all their attacks on one state to make it an example. And there is no larger or more currently politically significant red state than Texas.

By following up on his 2004 “advice”, he could sow political chaos leading into 2008 and may even believe (rightly or wrongly) that he can encourage individual states at some point in the future to separate themselves to protect their individual interests. He may actually believe that he can cause the United States to splinter just as the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics splintered into the current fifteen separate nations.

In that way, over the longer term, they might be able to realize the common Islamist dream of “the destruction of America”.

It all boils down to whether we interpret the October 2004 “Message to the American People” as a conditional truce for individual states who do not vote for “pro-war” candidates. Or whether the Arabic word for “state” only meant “nation-state” and there was never any implication that he was trying to tamper with the election a few days later.

If he meant the individual 50 states in the context of the 2004 speech (addressed directly to Americans and not the world at large), then at least through the 2008 election, the only cities of the ten largest cities which would be targets would be the three Texas cities (Houston, San Antonio, and Dallas) and Phoenix.


646 posted on 09/08/2007 3:53:24 PM PDT by callmejoe
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To: Oorang

“. . .Although President Musharraf discounts the idea, his potential next PM, Benazir Bhutto, thinks this is exactly what al Qaeda wants: “I think that’s what makes Pakistan so attractive to them. “Can you imagine the clout of the extremists and terrorists, how they would blackmail the entire global community if they could get hold of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons?” . . .”

In retaliation for the next mass attack, there will be a groundswell of people across the political spectrum wanting to tear apart Pakistan (from the extreme left-wing saying we should have gone into Pakistan to get UBL beforehand a la Obama to the extreme right wing saying who cares about innocent women and children - - kill them all and let God sort them out - - no matter that would make us terrorists).

UBL is counting on our collective irrational stupidity taking over as we try to count the dead (Pakistan as the “nuclear pinata” we break open for al Qaeda because they cannot.)

How ironic would it be that in retaliation for what is coming (maybe 3-4 strikes at most), we end up giving them 50-70 more.

They’ll be laughing all the way to the bank (or the bunker in this case.)


647 posted on 09/08/2007 4:06:59 PM PDT by callmejoe
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To: callmejoe
I agree Joe, Pakistan is on very thin ice. Adding to the messy mix are the reports from yesterday and today claiming that OBL is in Chitral. All the reports are basically the same: Chitral
648 posted on 09/08/2007 4:16:11 PM PDT by Oorang (Tyranny thrives best where government need not fear the wrath of an armed people - Alex Kozinski)
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To: fanfan
I don’t know that we can reach folks that choose to be blind. I guess they get some comfort from ignorance. I imagine another major attack will wake up a few more but some will choose to remain ignorant no matter what.
649 posted on 09/08/2007 4:18:05 PM PDT by Oorang (Tyranny thrives best where government need not fear the wrath of an armed people - Alex Kozinski)
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To: nwctwx

Thanks Ian, troubling times we live in.


650 posted on 09/08/2007 4:20:17 PM PDT by DAVEY CROCKETT (The Pigs are about to take over the barnyard!)
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To: fanfan

“What worries me is how we can reach those people before it’s too late.”

OPINON: You can’t.
They don’t want you to talk about those things.

“What if I posted signs...”

OPINION: I wouldn’t.


651 posted on 09/08/2007 4:48:07 PM PDT by Cindy
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To: DAVEY CROCKETT; StillProud2BeFree; Velveeta; Cindy; Godzilla; nwctwx; callmejoe; All
Abu Yahya al Libi: Next video in Al Qaeda Video "Sweeps Week"

It's the equivalent of "Sweeps Week" for Al Qaeda as we approach September 11, and they have already released the "big one" in the form of a new video from Osama bin Laden.

But there are other videos in the pipeline both from Al Qaeda and its sympathizers. Last week, banner ads on jihadist sites announced a video "coming soon" in the form of a "Second Interview" with an unnamed Al Qaeda leader.

That "second interview" should be releasing shortly. We've obtained a copy, and it features Abu Yahya al Libi, who is trying to capitalize on his fame as an escapee from Bagram Prison in Afghanistan, and his reputation as a "mujahid sheikh", a battlefied preacher of sorts. The image above is from the Al Libi video. A copy of the video, along with a transcription of the English subtitles is being sent to subscribers.

http://www.lauramansfield.com/j/default.asp

652 posted on 09/08/2007 4:51:05 PM PDT by Oorang (Tyranny thrives best where government need not fear the wrath of an armed people - Alex Kozinski)
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To: Cindy
OPINION: I wouldn’t.

I know. but there is no difference.

It just makes me mad.

653 posted on 09/08/2007 4:58:10 PM PDT by fanfan ("We don't start fights my friends, but we finish them, and never leave until our work is done."PMSH)
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To: fanfan

I understand.


654 posted on 09/08/2007 4:59:02 PM PDT by Cindy
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To: Oorang

Meanwhile, we can do our best.

:-)


655 posted on 09/08/2007 5:00:49 PM PDT by fanfan ("We don't start fights my friends, but we finish them, and never leave until our work is done."PMSH)
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To: fanfan
Oh absolutely! No reason to give up just because others do. We must persevere.
656 posted on 09/08/2007 5:06:55 PM PDT by Oorang (Tyranny thrives best where government need not fear the wrath of an armed people - Alex Kozinski)
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To: All; backhoe; JohnathanRGalt

UPDATE:

aekhlaas.com
aekhlaas.com/forum/
http://www.l6l6.net//uploads/c164d9a20f.gif
aekhlaas.com/forum/showthread.php?p=494016


657 posted on 09/08/2007 5:19:25 PM PDT by Cindy
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To: All; Mossad1967; callmejoe; Godzilla; ExSoldier; JellyJam; HipShot; appalachian_dweller; all4one; ..
US loner helps bin Laden to taunt Bush

Tim Shipman in Washington
Last Updated: 1:38am BST 09/09/2007

A Californian heavy metal fan, who converted to Islam and became the first American to be charged with treason in half a century, has been fingered as the author of Osama bin Laden's latest video lecture - which left the terror chief sounding like an anti-globalisation protester.

The al-Qaeda leader's first video message for three years featured a bizarre rant against America, with references to global warming, "insane taxes", the US mortgage market meltdown and rising interest rates.

American spy chiefs were quick to name Adam Gadahn, the head of al-Qaeda's English language media operations, as the author of large sections of bin Laden's broadcast.

Last October, the 28-year-old "loner" became the first American charged with treason since 1952, for appearing in a succession of al-Qaeda videos under the guise of "Azzam The American", in which he condemned globalisation and made American cultural references.

He was charged in his absence, as he is thought to be near to bin Laden, almost certainly in the tribal areas of Pakistan.

Gadahn, who as teenager reviewed albums for a metal music magazine, moved to Pakistan in 1998 and became an associate of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the architect of the 9/11 attacks. In 2004, the FBI named him as one of seven al-Qaeda operatives planning attacks in the US.

The bin Laden video, timed to coincide with the sixth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, shows the terror chief, his beard dyed black, condemning the "unjust" Iraq war and calling on Americans to "embrace Islam".

What surprised analysts was his use of the language of Left-wing protesters, which showed detailed knowledge of the economic travails of middle America.

Bin Laden referred to "the reeling of many of you under the burden of interest-related debts, insane taxes and real estate mortgage" and blamed "global warming and its woes" on "emissions of the factories the major corporations".

A former senior US intelligence official said: "It has Adam Gadahn written all over it." Mike Baker, a former CIA covert operations officer, said the tape left bin Laden with "the title of biggest gas bag in the terrorist world".

CIA officials said voice analysis of the tape proved it was definitely bin Laden.

References to the election of Nicolas Sarkozy as French president, Gordon Brown's appointment as prime minister and the anniversary of the Hiroshima bombing on August 6 led them to conclude it was filmed as recently as four weeks ago.

President Bush used the release of the tape to reinforce his view that Iraq is the central front in the war on terror.

He said: "I found it interesting that on the tape Iraq was mentioned, which is a reminder that Iraq is a part of this war against extremists.

If al-Qaeda bothers to mention Iraq, it is because they want to achieve their objectives in Iraq, which is to drive us out and to develop a safe haven."

The tape contained no direct threats, but Michael Hayden, the CIA director, gave a speech on Friday, after he was briefed on its contents, in which he said: "Al-Qaeda is focusing on targets that would produce mass casualties, dramatic destruction, and significant economic aftershocks."

American officials said the US government had obtained a copy of the video even though it had not been posted on Islamist websites - sparking speculation that US intelligence has developed an informant or cracked al-Qaeda's cyber security.

Mohamed el-Sayed, of the Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo, said bin Laden's words are proof the West cannot appease al-Qaeda by withdrawing from Iraq. "The message is much more threatening this time," he said. "It uses iconic language that suggests: 'The only way to get peace is to convert to Islam.' He's in a state of constant, unending war until he Islamises the world."

But other analysts said that the lack of specific threats is evidence that bin Laden cannot direct specific operations from his base in the tribal areas of Pakistan.

Peter Bergen, a US journalist who has interviewed bin Laden, said producing the video was a risk, as were previous audio tapes. "Every time he releases tapes he lays himself open to detection," he said.

"They are taken out by couriers from the tribal areas in Pakistan. If you can trace the train of custody of these tapes you can find bin Laden. He's keenly aware of that."

658 posted on 09/08/2007 6:07:44 PM PDT by nwctwx
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To: pabianice

Nice Pistol!


659 posted on 09/08/2007 6:16:33 PM PDT by oneolcop (Take off the gloves!)
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To: All; callmejoe; Godzilla; ExSoldier
consider source..

A Repackaged Bin Laden Plays Mind Games with Western Audience
Debkafile

Al Qaeda’s leader, Osama bin Laden presented a brushed up new image in his first video speech in three years on September 8. His style had changed too as he bid to challenge President George W. Bush’s recent assertions that the West is engaged in a long ideological war with Islamist extremism.

In his 25-hour speech, bin Laden borrowed the comparison President Bush drew between the Vietnam and the Iraqi Wars in addressing Veterans of Foreign Wars on Aug. 22 and compared the civilian casualties of the two conflicts.

His object was to show that the same people – he named Donald Rumsfeld - were responsible for both calamities.

Bin Laden for the first time adopted the Western mode of comparative figures in his rhetoric. He also made a point of turning American symbols against their leaders to show he was a match for their president in the ideological arena too. There was a suggestion that his speech had Western input – the American jihadi Adam Gadahn was mentioned - and was tailored to impress Western, especially American, audiences and prepare their minds for embracing his brand of jihadist Islam.

Certainly his neatly trimmed and fashionably darkened beard, his immaculate silken robes and sophisticated oratory were in sharp contrast to the harsh, out-of-the-desert, Koran-thumping Osama bin Laden, who inflamed Muslim masses seven years ago when he gloated over his mass murder of Americans.

Has the repackaged bin Laden lost his Islamist charisma?

His most effective and authentic videotape was discovered by US forces near Kabul in 2001 and released on 13 December, 2001, four months after the 9/11 atrocities. He was shown gleefully explaining to Saudi clerics (see picture) how he, as a construction engineer, calculated the exact force of the two airliners which rammed the World Trade Center of New York. He had counted on their flaming impact melting the steel supports of the towers and toppling three or four floors. Much to his surprise and evident joy the towers collapsed in their entirety.

Six years later, he invokes the trendy issue of global warning.

“This greatest of plagues and most dangerous of threats to the lives of humans is taking place in an accelerating fashion as the world is dominated by the democratic system, which confirms its massive failure to protect humans and their interests from the greed and avarice of the major corporations and their representatives.

“And despite this brazen attack on the people, the leaders of the West – especially Bush, Blair, Sarkozy and Brown - still talk about freedom… Is there a form of terrorism stronger, clearer and more dangerous than this?”

He trashes the capitalist system as “harsher and fiercer that your systems in the Middle Ages… under the label of globalization to protect democracy.”

For ending the Iraq war, al Qaeda’s leader has a simple answer: Americans must embrace Islam. But this does not stop him putting his oar into US politics. Asking why the Democrats have failed to stop the war, he says: “…they are the same reasons which led to the failure of Kennedy to stop the Vietnam War. Since the democratic system permits major corporations to back candidates, there is no cause for astonishment at the Democrats’ failure to stop the war… Money talks.”

It is also interesting to note that al Qaeda’s leader is trying to influence the US presidential campaign at this early stage. In the past, he made dramatic statements on election eve. Now, without waiting for the Republicans and the Democrats to select their candidates, bin Laden has focused on the parties themselves, mainly deriding the latter for failing to follow through on its pre-midterm election pledge to bring the troops home from Iraq.

DEBKAfile’s al Qaeda experts say that, while polishing his public persona for Western consumption, Osama bin Laden has also adopted a new style for his jihadist following, that of religious guide, supreme mentor, the great ideologue and imam, who leaves crude threats to others.

Many Western pundits claimed that the new speech contained no threats. Our sources caution against falling into this error. They note that al Qaeda’s leader may have changed his marketing tactics, but not his spots: His diatribe starts with the words: “Praise to Allah and his law of retaliation – ‘an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth and the killer is killed.'”

Despite its lack of specific warnings, several security analysts said bin Laden's video could be a signal to his followers to launch new strikes.

Rohan Gunaratna, a leading authority on militant Islamism, agrees.

"Osama is presenting Koranic injunctions before planning to attack."

He told Reuter Sat. Sept. 8, "Osama's call to the Americans to convert to Islam is indicative of an al Qaeda attack on U.S. targets. Before the Prophet (Mohammad) attacked his enemies he urged his opponents to embrace Islam."

On the World War II Holocaust of European Jewry, reverts to his ranting style:

“We [the Muslims] are a people who don’t sleep under oppression and reject humiliation and disgrace, and we take revenge on the people of tyranny and aggression, and the blood of the Muslims will not be spilled with impunity, and the morrow is nigh for he who waits.”

This phrasing fits the fanatical convictions which drove the old, unkempt bin Laden to orchestrate unspeakable carnage.

On Aug. 10, DEBKAfile disclosed exclusively a rush of exchanged messages and instruction on Islamist sites referring in clear terms to the “dirty bomb” or even nuclear attacks al Qaeda was preparing for the sixth anniversary of 9/11.

Our sources spell out the targets as being New York, Washington, Los Angeles, Florida, Seattle and Texas. The orders were signed Abdul Kandahar al Zarqawi and Basialn bin Abdallah a- Salafi al-Shami, noms de guerre symbolizing, respectively, al Qaeda’s two battle arenas of Iraq and Afghanistan, and the most radical Salafi brand of Sunni Islam and the Levant.

Taken together, the speech and the Internet instructions point to a division of labor between publicists who staged bin Laden’s appearance together with the supreme decision-making elite of al Qaeda, and the field operatives. But there is no sign that Bin Laden’s movement has abandoned any part of its program of terror.

660 posted on 09/08/2007 6:19:41 PM PDT by nwctwx
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