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Hurricane Dean Live Thread [Now Cat 4]
NOAA/NWS ^ | August 16 2007 | NOAA/NWS

Posted on 08/16/2007 4:43:17 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Hurricane warnings have been issued for Dominica and St. Lucia as Hurricane Dean races westward into the Caribbean Sea at 24mph. This motion should bring the center of Dean near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. The increased forward speed of the storm has lessened preparation time for Caribbean Islands in its path. Hurricane Dean has favorable conditions to develop into a major hurricane over the next several days.

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

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Buoy Data East Caribbean

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Hurricane City

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: dean; hurricane; hurricanedean; tropical; tsdean
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To: PogySailor
Wow. It really intensified this evening.

And we're not done measuring yet. The Hunters should be in there another couple passes. In fact, the next one should be up inside a half-hour.

461 posted on 08/17/2007 8:07:05 PM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: PogySailor
I need to preview. That should have read -
The next vortex data message should be up in about a half hour.

462 posted on 08/17/2007 8:08:07 PM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: mutley

The winds could be 160 by the time it gets to Jamaica. The best they can hope for is an eyewall replacement to soft it up just a bit. Other than that there is no shear or landmass to stop it from getting stronger.


463 posted on 08/17/2007 8:08:47 PM PDT by Moonman62 (The issue of whether cheap labor makes America great should have been settled by the Civil War.)
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To: steveegg
Buoy 42059 directly in the path of Hurricane Dean:


464 posted on 08/17/2007 8:10:42 PM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: NautiNurse

What are the odds that Buoy 42059 survives this one?


465 posted on 08/17/2007 8:11:54 PM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: steveegg; NautiNurse
This little guy?


466 posted on 08/17/2007 8:13:35 PM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: steveegg

Nearly nil, based on buoys lost in the GOM in 2005.


467 posted on 08/17/2007 8:14:43 PM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: SouthTexas
The tiny buoy was tossed.
Because there was no work or a fearless crew
Buoy 42059 will probably be lost.
468 posted on 08/17/2007 8:15:09 PM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: NautiNurse

We ought to start a pool on when we lose it.


469 posted on 08/17/2007 8:15:51 PM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: steveegg
LOL Here's another right behind it, almost looks like an escape pod!


470 posted on 08/17/2007 8:17:42 PM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: steveegg

My daughter, son-in-law were in the Hugho one on Cancun. Had to tie themselves to the plumbing from being sucked out the windows. At that time they had absolutely no warning.


471 posted on 08/17/2007 8:22:20 PM PDT by AGreatPer (Karl Rove for President)
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Comment #472 Removed by Moderator

To: AGreatPer

Yowch.


473 posted on 08/17/2007 8:24:01 PM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: steveegg

They knew they were in trouble when the sofa got sucked out of their 6th story glass door.


474 posted on 08/17/2007 8:25:56 PM PDT by AGreatPer (Karl Rove for President)
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To: All
Correction on the forecast position/max winds (removed "inland" indicator for the 96-hour forecast position, added "near coast of Mexico" to the 120-hour forecast position)

Forecast positions and Max winds
 
initial      18/0300z 14.9n  65.9w   125 kt
 12hr VT     18/1200z 15.5n  68.4w   130 kt
 24hr VT     19/0000z 16.4n  71.7w   135 kt
 36hr VT     19/1200z 17.3n  75.0w   135 kt
 48hr VT     20/0000z 18.2n  78.4w   135 kt
 72hr VT     21/0000z 20.0n  85.5w   140 kt
 96hr VT     22/0000z 22.5n  91.5w   110 kt
120hr VT     23/0000z 25.0n  97.5w   110 kt...near coast of Mexico

475 posted on 08/17/2007 8:26:07 PM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: AGreatPer

That would be trouble. At that point, I’d be finding the hallway (or at least the bathroom).


476 posted on 08/17/2007 8:26:50 PM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: AGreatPer
The last time I was there, there were remnants of hotels that were concrete only. No glass, no interior walls, basically only structure left. I suppose they eventually rebuilt them.

Would not be a very nice place to be during a storm.

477 posted on 08/17/2007 8:28:58 PM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: Robert A. Cook, PE

It’s the blue one that is doing it’s own thing.


478 posted on 08/17/2007 8:31:03 PM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: dirtboy

Several months ago I jokingly told my son, who was attending Heavy Equipment Operators school in the Air Force, not to worry about going to the Middle East because he would probably end-up going to the Yucatan.

He graduated today.


479 posted on 08/17/2007 8:32:20 PM PDT by VeniVidiVici (No buy China!!)
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To: steveegg
URNT12 KNHC 180328
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 18/02:58:10Z
B. 14 deg 53 min N
065 deg 55 min W
C. 700 mb 2547 m
D. 126 kt
E. 148 deg 007 nm
F. 245 deg 117 kt
G. 141 deg 005 nm
H. 935 mb
I. 11 C/ 3049 m
J. 20 C/ 3028 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C15
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0504A DEAN OB 17
MAX FL WIND 138 KT NE QUAD 01:12:20 Z
MAX FL WND OUTBOUND FROM CNTR 129KT @ 03:00:50Z

I think those bold lines are the key ones for the anateurs like me.

480 posted on 08/17/2007 8:34:19 PM PDT by alancarp (How many millions have to break a law before it's inconvenient to enforce?)
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