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Locked on 08/19/2007 5:43:08 AM PDT by Lead Moderator, reason:
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Posted on 08/16/2007 4:43:17 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane warnings have been issued for Dominica and St. Lucia as Hurricane Dean races westward into the Caribbean Sea at 24mph. This motion should bring the center of Dean near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. The increased forward speed of the storm has lessened preparation time for Caribbean Islands in its path. Hurricane Dean has favorable conditions to develop into a major hurricane over the next several days.
Public Advisories Updated every three hours.
Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours
Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 5 day forecast tracks
Buoy Data East Caribbean
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Storm Surge graphic
Satellite Images
Additional Resources:
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
And we're not done measuring yet. The Hunters should be in there another couple passes. In fact, the next one should be up inside a half-hour.
The next vortex data message should be up in about a half hour.
The winds could be 160 by the time it gets to Jamaica. The best they can hope for is an eyewall replacement to soft it up just a bit. Other than that there is no shear or landmass to stop it from getting stronger.
What are the odds that Buoy 42059 survives this one?
Nearly nil, based on buoys lost in the GOM in 2005.
We ought to start a pool on when we lose it.
My daughter, son-in-law were in the Hugho one on Cancun. Had to tie themselves to the plumbing from being sucked out the windows. At that time they had absolutely no warning.
Yowch.
They knew they were in trouble when the sofa got sucked out of their 6th story glass door.
Forecast positions and Max winds initial 18/0300z 14.9n 65.9w 125 kt 12hr VT 18/1200z 15.5n 68.4w 130 kt 24hr VT 19/0000z 16.4n 71.7w 135 kt 36hr VT 19/1200z 17.3n 75.0w 135 kt 48hr VT 20/0000z 18.2n 78.4w 135 kt 72hr VT 21/0000z 20.0n 85.5w 140 kt 96hr VT 22/0000z 22.5n 91.5w 110 kt 120hr VT 23/0000z 25.0n 97.5w 110 kt...near coast of Mexico
That would be trouble. At that point, I’d be finding the hallway (or at least the bathroom).
Would not be a very nice place to be during a storm.
It’s the blue one that is doing it’s own thing.
Several months ago I jokingly told my son, who was attending Heavy Equipment Operators school in the Air Force, not to worry about going to the Middle East because he would probably end-up going to the Yucatan.
He graduated today.
I think those bold lines are the key ones for the anateurs like me.
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