Nearly nil, based on buoys lost in the GOM in 2005.
We ought to start a pool on when we lose it.
491 URNT12 KNHC 180328 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007 A. 18/02:58:10Z B. 14 deg 53 min N 065 deg 55 min W C. 700 mb 2547 m D. 126 kt E. 148 deg 007 nm F. 245 deg 117 kt G. 141 deg 005 nm H. 935 mb I. 11 C/ 3049 m J. 20 C/ 3028 m K. 10 C/ NA L. CLOSED M. C15 N. 12345/ 7 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF302 0504A DEAN OB 17 MAX FL WIND 138 KT NE QUAD 01:12:20 Z MAX FL WND OUTBOUND FROM CNTR 129KT @ 03:00:50ZMotion over the last 1:43 was 274 degrees (just north of west) at approximately 17 mph. Pressure down slightly (2 mb) to 935 mb. This was a SE-to-NW run so the 138-knot flight-level wind in the northeast quadrant holds for now.