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Hurricane Dean Live Thread [Now Cat 4]
NOAA/NWS ^ | August 16 2007 | NOAA/NWS

Posted on 08/16/2007 4:43:17 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Hurricane warnings have been issued for Dominica and St. Lucia as Hurricane Dean races westward into the Caribbean Sea at 24mph. This motion should bring the center of Dean near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. The increased forward speed of the storm has lessened preparation time for Caribbean Islands in its path. Hurricane Dean has favorable conditions to develop into a major hurricane over the next several days.

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

Three Day Tracking Map

Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 5 day forecast tracks

Buoy Data East Caribbean

Buoy Data West Caribbean

Storm Model Tracks

Storm Surge graphic

Satellite Images

Visible Satellite Still Image

IR Image

WV Image

Additional Resources:

Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: dean; hurricane; hurricanedean; tropical; tsdean
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How big is Dean compared to most hurricanes?


441 posted on 08/17/2007 7:43:56 PM PDT by Miztiki (My vote will be for the best candidate, but my heart and soul longs for God's Kingdom)
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To: dirtboy

I just looked at the water vapor. That looks like one powerful eye.


442 posted on 08/17/2007 7:44:16 PM PDT by Moonman62 (The issue of whether cheap labor makes America great should have been settled by the Civil War.)
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To: Letitring

Bail-out boxes get packed tomorrow.
Vehicles already fueled.
Canned stuff, H2O, etc. stocked.
Generator check, oil change, & fresh fuel tomorrow.
Hoping the above is for nothing.
Earlier today UKMET had it hitting here. Now GFDL does.

Shame we kaint send the water to Florida, Tennessee, or west where it’s needed...we’re already WAY over for this time of year.

Someday I’ll tire of this fire-drill and move inland into a bunker or something....


443 posted on 08/17/2007 7:45:02 PM PDT by Johnny Crab (http://www.myspace.com/theguzzlers)
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To: Letitring
Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket

I think Madame Babineaux Blanco is still testing the winds.

444 posted on 08/17/2007 7:48:06 PM PDT by getmeouttaPalmBeachCounty_FL (****************************Stop Continental Drift**)
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To: Johnny Crab

I understand. I didn’t rebuild in Alabama. It was just too much after Ivan.

I did get a place down in Jupiter, Fla.

Plan to do something later on about Dauphin Island. I’ll probably always keep the land, as long as they are willing to replace it after each hurricane, but I’ve quit building my house on sinking sand. :)

I just know, this time, if there are any major evacuations, I won’t be available to volunteer.


445 posted on 08/17/2007 7:49:23 PM PDT by Letitring
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To: Moonman62
Crap, the 11 pm advisory just came out. Now Dean is forecast as a Cat 5 going forward more than 24 hours.

Pray for Jamaica.

446 posted on 08/17/2007 7:50:07 PM PDT by dirtboy (Impeach Chertoff and Gonzales. We can't wait until 2009 for them to be gone.)
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To: Johnny Crab

11 o’clock updates are starting with the forecast/advisory. Borderline Cat 5 by this time tomorrow, clip the Yucatan, and then come across near the border as a Cat 3 Wednesday evening (the last is at the ragged edge of the prediction).


447 posted on 08/17/2007 7:50:51 PM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: steveegg
Nothing borderline about it:

Pray for those in this storm's path.

448 posted on 08/17/2007 7:51:47 PM PDT by dirtboy (Impeach Chertoff and Gonzales. We can't wait until 2009 for them to be gone.)
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To: All
Hurricane Dean Public Advisory Number 20

Statement as of 11:00 PM AST on August 17, 2007

...Category four Dean intensifying over the eastern Caribbean...
 
At 11 PM AST...a Hurricane Warning is issued for the southwestern
peninsula of Haiti...from the Haiti/Dominican Republic border to
Port-au-Prince...and a Tropical Storm Warning is issued from
Port-au-Prince to the northern Haiti/Dominican Republic border.
 
At 11 PM AST...the Hurricane Warning for Guadeloupe and its
dependencies has been discontinued...and all tropical storm
warnings have been discontinued for the following islands of the
Lesser Antilles...Montserrat...Antigua...Nevis...St
Kitts...Barbuda...and Anguilla.
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the South Coast of the
Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the Haiti-Dominican
Republic border.  A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane
conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24
hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the British Virgin
Islands....U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.  These warnings
will likely be discontinued on Saturday morning.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect along the South Coast of
the Dominican Republic from Cabo engano westward to Barahona.
 
A Hurricane Watch is also in effect for Jamaica.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.  A
Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within
the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
 
A tropical storm watch is in effect for portions of Cuba...from the
province of Camaguey eastward to the province of Guantanamo.  A
tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean...including
western Cuba...the Cayman Islands...and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico...should closely monitor the progress of Dean.
 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
 
At 1100 PM AST...0300z...the center of Hurricane Dean was located
near latitude 14.9 north...longitude 65.9 west or about 755 miles...
1210 km...east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 240 miles...
390 km...south of San Juan Puerto Rico.
 
Dean is moving toward the west near 18 mph...30 km/hr...and this
general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. 
On this track...the core of the hurricane will be moving well south
of Puerto Rico tonight and south of the Dominican Republic early
Saturday.
 
Data from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph...230 km/hr...with higher
gusts.  Dean is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
hurricane scale.  Some additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 24 hours.
 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205
miles...335 km.
 
The minimum central pressure just reported by the aircraft was 937
mb...27.67 inches.
Storm total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches can be expected from
Dean over Puerto Rico...the Dominican Republic and Haiti with
maximum amounts up to 5 inches possible.  These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
 
repeating the 1100 PM AST position...14.9 N...65.9 W.  Movement
toward...west near 18 mph.  Maximum sustained winds...145 mph.
Minimum central pressure...937 mb.
 
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 am AST followed by the next complete advisory at 500
am AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Knabb

449 posted on 08/17/2007 7:52:18 PM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: getmeouttaPalmBeachCounty_FL

ROFLOL. I wouldn’t doubt it. If she’s like most Democrats, she’s probably thinking a pretty fair wind is blowing her way. :)


450 posted on 08/17/2007 7:52:19 PM PDT by Letitring
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To: dirtboy
Crap, the 11 pm advisory just came out. Now Dean is forecast as a Cat 5 going forward more than 24 hours. Pray for Jamaica.

It also says Dean is currently 145 sustained, with gusts to 180. They could see more than that. Heaven help them.
451 posted on 08/17/2007 7:54:34 PM PDT by mutley
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To: steveegg
Well, the GFDL outlier ain't quite as much as an outlier now:

All other models take the system well into the Yucatan.

Pray those are right.

452 posted on 08/17/2007 7:54:52 PM PDT by dirtboy (Impeach Chertoff and Gonzales. We can't wait until 2009 for them to be gone.)
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To: Letitring

Lol! I have often wondered about her IQ.


453 posted on 08/17/2007 7:57:08 PM PDT by getmeouttaPalmBeachCounty_FL (****************************Stop Continental Drift**)
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To: prairiebreeze

thread marker


454 posted on 08/17/2007 7:59:13 PM PDT by prairiebreeze (PUT AMERICA AHEAD! VOTE FOR FRED!!)
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To: steveegg

Oh my goodness. I think I’ll sign off now and pray.


455 posted on 08/17/2007 8:00:44 PM PDT by Letitring
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To: Letitring

That looks a little further south than the last track, I think.
456 posted on 08/17/2007 8:02:03 PM PDT by Galactic Overlord-In-Chief (Groundchuck Hagel and Lindsey Grahamcracker are undesirable menu items in 2008. Make new choices!)
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To: NautiNurse

Lord I pray, please keep and protect the people in the path of this hurricane. May they weather the storm and live to see another day.


457 posted on 08/17/2007 8:02:20 PM PDT by montag813
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To: dirtboy

458 posted on 08/17/2007 8:02:28 PM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: All
Hurricane Dean Discussion Number 20

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 17, 2007

Dean has been steadily intensifying tonight.  The U.S. Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft recently measured maximum flight-level
winds of 138 kt...corresponding to about 124 kt at the surface.  In
addition...the aircraft is equipped with the stepped-frequency
microwave radiometer which measured winds as strong as 123 kt this
evening.  Not surprisingly...the central pressure has been
dropping...with the latest aircraft measurement being 937 mb.  The
advisory intensity is set to 125 kt...which is also consistent with
Dvorak intensity estimates.  The aircraft data also indicate the
storm has become a good bit larger...and wind radii have been
expanded in all quadrants.  Dean might also have a close encounter
with NOAA buoy 42059...less than 100 N mi directly ahead of the
center of the hurricane...in a few hours.

The initial motion estimate is 275/16...just a little slower than
before.  The overall track forecast reasoning has not changed...and
the models are in good agreement through 72 hours on a track toward
the northwestern Caribbean.  Thereafter...the models notably
disagree and have generally shifted a bit to the south...including
the northern outlying GFDL.  The official forecast...however...has
not changed noticeably...since the models might shift back the
other way.  The significant spread in the models at days four and
five is indicative of the large uncertainties typical of those
longer forecast ranges.  The NHC wind speed probability text and
graphical products included in this advisory package also refect
these uncertainties.  The chances of tropical storm force winds are
similar at each location along the entire western and northern
coasts of the Gulf of Mexico...and it is too early to differentiate
the risk of hurricane force winds between any of these locations.

The future intensity of Dean...given the weak shear and warm waters
ahead...will likely be controlled by internal structural changes
and/or brief interactions with land.  The official forecast keeps
the current intensity through 72 hours...and is only lowered on
days 4 and 5 due to potential passage over Yucatan.
 
 
 
 
Forecast positions and Max winds
 
initial      18/0300z 14.9n  65.9w   125 kt
 12hr VT     18/1200z 15.5n  68.4w   130 kt
 24hr VT     19/0000z 16.4n  71.7w   135 kt
 36hr VT     19/1200z 17.3n  75.0w   135 kt
 48hr VT     20/0000z 18.2n  78.4w   135 kt
 72hr VT     21/0000z 20.0n  85.5w   140 kt
 96hr VT     22/0000z 22.5n  91.5w   110 kt...inland
120hr VT     23/0000z 25.0n  97.5w   110 kt
 
$$
forecaster Knabb

459 posted on 08/17/2007 8:03:40 PM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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Wow. It really intensified this evening.
460 posted on 08/17/2007 8:04:45 PM PDT by PogySailor (Murtha'd: To be attacked by a corrupt politician for doing your job.)
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